Driven by growth in primary, secondary, and tertiary activities on a monthly basis, the Mexican economy showed a rebound both monthly and annually in October 2025.

In the tenth month of 2025, Mexican economic activity increased by 1% compared to September 2024 , which meant the highest growth rate so far this year, according to the  Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) , prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

In its annual measurement, this indicator registered a rise of 1.6 percent . The IGAE, which allows for monitoring and tracking the evolution of the real sector of the economy in the short term, stood at a level of 105.6 points.

By component, primary activities , which include agriculture and livestock, increased by 1.4%; while  secondary activities , which include manufacturing and construction, also increased by 0.7% monthly.

Meanwhile,  tertiary activities , which involve services – including the  transport, postal and storage sectors – registered an increase of 1.2% in October 2025 compared to last September.

On an annual basis, primary activities grew 11.8%, secondary activities decreased 0.7%, and tertiary activities increased 2.5%.

The transportation, postal, and warehousing sector grew 0.9% compared to last September . In its annual measurement,  Mexico’s logistics industry  also showed positive figures, with a  1.9% increase  in economic activity, according to the IGAE (Global Indicator of Economic Activity).

The increase in economic activity in Mexico gives positive signs in this area, in a trade environment framed by tariff uncertainty.

Manufacturing activity expected to decline in November

Amid the protectionist trade policy of the United States, Mexican manufacturing activity would have experienced an annual decline in November 2025, according to data from the Monthly Indicator of Manufacturing Activity (IMOAM) .

The report, prepared by Inegi, anticipated a drop of 1.8%  compared to the same month last year.

In the penultimate month of the year, the IMOAM registered a value of  104.9 points , as an advance calculation of this indicator.

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Foreign Direct Investment  (FDI) in the transportation, postal and storage sector in Mexico during the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25) registered a drop of 20.1% compared to the same period in 2024 (3Q24), according to data from the Ministry of Economy (SE) .

From July to September of this year, FDI focused on this industry totaled $1.9456 billion , representing 4.7% of the total accumulated FDI . In the same period of 2024, this sector registered $2.4374 billion, according to SE statistics.

So far this year, FDI inflows in the transport and logistics sector totaled $3,038.8 million, compared to $6,212.8 million in the first nine months of 2024, representing a decrease of 51 percent.

It is worth remembering that Mexico attracted $40.906 billion in FDI in Q3 2025 , a 15% increase compared to the same period in 2024, according to the federal agency.

According to the SE, the air transport subsector reached $20.7 million in the third quarter of 2025, which meant a decrease of 69% compared to 3Q24, when it was $66.8 million.

During the reporting period, rail transport showed a negative performance in terms of attracting FDI, which amounted to -$3.3 million. This subsector did not register any FDI during Q3 2024.

Water transport also declined. In the July-September period of this year, FDI attracted by this subsector was seven million dollars, a 54% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, when it totaled 15.2 million dollars.

During the cycle, pipeline transportation registered foreign capital flows of 1,615.9 million dollars, which represented a drop of 15.6% compared to the same period last year, when it reached 1,916.2 million dollars.

Transportation-related services also experienced a slowdown in attracting FDI. In Q3 2025, this subsector totaled $299.5 million, a 1.3% decrease from the $303.6 million it received in Q3 2024.

Meanwhile, FDI in courier and parcel services attracted $6.5 million compared to $132.9 million in the third quarter of 2024, representing a 95 percent reduction.

Other subsectors, such as  freight transport and postal services, registered zero FDI inflows in Q3 2025, while warehousing services attracted $1.9 million during the cycle.

Despite the decline in FDI inflows recorded in the transport, postal and warehousing sector in Mexico in the third quarter of 2025, the country’s logistics industry remains resilient , and has faced challenges such as road blockades and new tariff rates.

This sector facilitates the movement of goods, both within and outside the country, and helps companies to optimize processes, reduce costs, and increase efficiency.

According to the consulting firm Expert Market Research , the logistics market in Mexico is estimated to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10.2% between 2025 and 2034, reaching a value of $3,044.59 million in 2034.

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In October 2025, the transportation, communications, postal, and warehousing sector  registered an increase of 68,351 jobs in Mexico, according to the  National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE) , published this Friday by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

According to the survey, the sector reported  3,388,841  jobs in the tenth of the year, while in October 2024 it was  3,320,490 , which meant an increase of 2.05 percent.

This increase in the logistics sector is in line with the rise that the ENOE recorded in October 2025, which was 62.5 million people in the Economically Active Population (EAP) , an annual increase of 1.1 million people.

According to Inegi, “by sex, the employment of women was 25.3 million (an annual increase of 567,000) and that of men was 35.6 million (an increase of 463,000).”

By sector, the employed population was distributed as follows: services accounted for 27.2 million people (44.6%); commerce 12 million (19.7%); manufacturing industry 9.8 million (16.1%); agriculture, livestock, forestry, hunting and fishing 6.3 million (10.3%); construction 4.8 million (7.9%); and other economic activities – which include mining, electricity, water and gas supply – 359 thousand (0.6%).

In the reference month, the unemployed population was 1.6 million people, which meant an annual growth of 96,000 people.

The number of underemployed people , that is, those who declared a need and availability to work more hours, was 4.6 million people or 7.5% of the employed population.

Meanwhile, informal workers in October totaled 33.9 million, and the rate of informal employment stood at 55.7 percent.

The ENOE figures are presented in a context of uncertainty due to the United States’ tariff policy, which has spread globally and has affected various productive sectors in Mexico and, consequently, the employment rate.

The increase in jobs in the logistics industry highlights the importance of this sector to the country’s economy, especially given the rise in activities such as e-commerce, which demands more warehousing and transportation services for the final delivery of products to the consumer.

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The challenges for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), including those in the transportation sector, persist, and they have found in non-bank financial institutions, such as Sofom, Sofipo, fintech, among others, an increasingly viable alternative to obtain financing.

According to recent data from Serfimex Capital, these institutions have increased their participation as a source of financing for companies by almost 70%, going from being an option for 3.5% of companies in 2020 to 5.9% currently. This percentage rises to 8.7% among companies with more than three years of operation, positioning them as the third most important source of financing after banks.

Alejandro Macin, Business Director of Serfimex Capital, explained that Sofomes emerged in 2006 with the objective of supporting 90% of productive units in Mexico, especially SMEs. “Sofomes initially emerged to support the SME sector because we detected a lot of backlog there that banks were not able to address or understand, so we first focused on customer service and response times,” commented Macin.

For the transportation sector, Sofomes offer significant advantages that can make a big difference in unit renewal and working capital management.

In this regard, Macin commented that in the case of Serfimex, “we work with all brands. Generally, brand financiers force you to buy from their brand, but if a customer tells us they are looking for a truck of a certain tonnage, we present them with options from different brands, where they can choose the best option in terms of price, fuel consumption, efficiency, etc. And by working with all brands, we obtain some discounts,” he explained.

In terms of financial products, Macin pointed out that at Serfimex they only carry out pure lease and credit operations, they do not handle factoring, while the requirements are that the company has two years of incorporation, sales above 15 million pesos (mdp), and a good credit history, among others.

Sofomes also allow flexibility in payment terms that is crucial for the transportation sector, where capital turnover is vital. “At Serfimex, the average terms are from 12 to 60 months for credits and leases, with amounts ranging from 500 thousand to operations exceeding 100 million pesos,” Macin detailed.

Furthermore, in Sofomes like Serfimex, the possibility of leasing different types of assets is offered, such as racks, warehouse equipment, and forklifts, providing a leasing line in which the client can dispose of their logistics chain as needed.

Sofomes are also expanding geographically in Mexico, with a focus on areas such as the southeast and the central region of the country. “The geographical areas where we are growing significantly are the southeast, especially in the tourist transportation sector and personnel transportation for hotels, and the central and Bajío areas for the last mile,” Macin said.

Looking ahead, Serfimex is committed to sustainability. “We are very committed to the whole ecological issue, seeking to reduce CO2 emissions and betting on electric and hybrid vehicles. In addition to the fact that operating expenses are much lower with these types of units,” Macin affirmed.

Thanks to factors such as nearshoring, it will continue to drive growth in the coming years, highlighting the importance of implementing actions that directly support SMEs, thereby contributing to strengthening the economic environment and facilitating their establishment, growth, and consolidation to meet the growing market.

Sofomes represent a viable and strategic alternative for SMEs, especially in the transportation sector, offering agile, personalized, and flexible financing that responds to their specific needs, thus facilitating unit renewal, working capital management, and operational sustainability.

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