According to the organization, the Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index reached record levels in the first quarter of 2025, driven by the growing unpredictability that has become a global feature.

The index, which was near zero last year after peaking at 10,000 points in 2023, rose to more than 27,000 points during the first half of 2025, according to UNCTAD’s latest World Trade Update .

Although global trade has always faced complicated situations, such as pandemics and geopolitical divisions, the current climate of mistrust due to the tariff war has made uncertainty “systemic.”

“Businesses face difficult choices: stockpile goods, divert shipments, or pay higher transportation costs. In early 2025, the volatility of US imports increased compared to the previous year, even before the tariffs took effect, as businesses rushed to adapt. The cost of uncertainty itself often exceeds the tariff,” UNCTAD stressed.

Given this scenario, small exporters and developing economies are bearing the brunt of the impact, with limited financing and logistics to cushion the impact .

Uncertainty also poses a risk to financial and macroeconomic stability, as exchange rates fluctuate, capital flows contract, and borrowing costs rise.

“For developing countries, where access to commercial financing is already scarce, this translates into restricted credit and reduced investment. With global interest rates still high, the additional burden of unpredictability deepens fiscal fragility, limiting governments’ ability to finance growth and social development,” he said.

Uncertainty also erodes trust and cooperation , which UNCTAD considered the “most damaging” aspect, as when policies are unclear or rules are applied selectively, governments resort to unilateral measures that trigger retaliation. “This cycle fuels volatility in supply chains .”

While advanced economies recorded stable import trends, developing countries experienced more pronounced fluctuations in early 2025 , indicating how the most vulnerable economies are also the most exposed.

“The cost of unpredictability is evident: volatility punishes those least able to absorb it,” the organization emphasized.

Despite the climate of uncertainty and volatility in global trade, UNCTAD remained positive and noted that there are ways forward.

“Diversifying markets, strengthening trade agreements, and providing businesses with advance notice of policy changes can reduce risk. Above all, restoring stability and predictability is essential for businesses to invest, for countries to grow, and for trade to fulfill its role as an engine of development,” he encouraged.

The tariff policy promoted by the United States represents a hindrance to global trade, especially due to the uncertainty it generates among investors, who are seeking stable markets to invest capital.

The 90-day extension granted by the United States to Mexico for the collection of tariffs represents a “respite,” although it does not free the country from the uncertainty that will grow as the days go by and this period expires.

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“It’s a game of one-eyed in the land of the blind,” is how Julio Ruiz, chief economist at Citi , described the current international trade landscape. During the presentation of Citi Mexico’s Economic Analysis , the executive considered that, while everyone, including Mexico, will implement some type of tariff, only those countries that are best positioned will be the most competitive .

In Mexico’s case, Ruiz indicated that if a new agreement is reached within the framework of the revised United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) by early 2026, the country could benefit from two key factors: first, the cost of tariffs, which in Mexico is around 10%, which is relatively low compared to other economies such as Asia ; and second, the highly integrated production chains between Mexico and the United States, which favors the country’s position in the US market.

The executive emphasized that despite the short-term headwinds,  the medium-term outlook offers a positive outlook, provided the current economic uncertainty dissipates . He considered that investment decisions that had been paused could be resumed in a more favorable environment between 2026 and 2027.

The specialist emphasized the importance of waiting for clear definitions within the framework of the USMCA, and how this could represent an economic opportunity for Mexico in the future.

Economic Outlook for Mexico

During the presentation, the results of the Citi Expectations Survey were revealed , in which Mexico showed an upturn in growth projections for 2025, rising from 0.2% to 0.5% . However, a weak pace is expected to continue in the second half of the year, primarily due to global economic uncertainty and the slowdown in the United States.

In terms of inflation, the persistence of core inflation (which excludes goods and services with more volatile prices) outside the target range of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) , which is between 2% and 4%, continues to worry analysts, who estimate that it will close the year at around 4.2% .

The resistance to the decline in this indicator is primarily due to two factors: on the one hand, goods inflation remains at historically average levels, which puts upward pressure on the underlying component; on the other, the expected slowdown in services inflation is not occurring.

Regarding the exchange rate, it was estimated that the peso will close 2025 at 18.77 pesos per dollar and by 2026 it will be at 20.10 pesos .

Citi’s analysis presents a mixed picture for the Mexican economy: persistent challenges in the short term, exacerbated by trade uncertainty, but also projects opportunities for the medium term, especially if the USMCA review is consolidated. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that it will involve a renegotiation to attempt to modify the trilateral trade agreement.

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Schneider, a company specializing in transportation and logistics services, reported 41% growth in net profit in the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25) , driven primarily by its multimodal platform amid growing economic uncertainty.

“We delivered quarterly results in line with our expectations while navigating a fluid operating environment. Revenue, excluding the fuel surcharge, of nearly $1.3 billion was the second-highest first-quarter revenue in our history, and all of our segments improved revenue, earnings, and margin year over year. As the quarter progressed, growing economic uncertainty dampened consumer confidence and market expectations,” said Mark Rourke, the company’s president and chief executive officer.

According to its quarterly report, net income for the period increased from $18.5 million to $26.1 million , despite economic and market challenges.

“At Truckload, we increased the number of dedicated trucks, including our recently acquired Cowan business, and continued to execute on our plan to restore Network to profitability. At Intermodal, we increased our volumes, and combined with our cost and productivity actions, this led to a third consecutive quarterly margin improvement year-over-year. In logistics, our diversified service offerings and effective net revenue management, thanks to our industry-leading technology, have enabled us to improve profit and margin year-over-year, despite lower volumes,” the executive stated.

Regarding its revenue from January to March, it reported an increase of 6% , from $1.401 billion to $1.319 billion in the same period last year. Corporate revenue was $42.1 million , an increase of $13.4 million , or 47%,  compared to the same quarter in 2024.

It said that truckload revenue (excluding fuel surcharge) for 1Q25 was $613.7 million , an increase of $75.6 million , or 14% , due to the acquisition of Cowan Systems and improved revenue per unit per week, partially offset by lower network volumes.

While intermodal (excluding fuel surcharge) was $260.4 million , a 5% year-over-year increase, primarily due to 4% volume growth and improved revenue per order.

Regarding logistics revenue for the first quarter of 2025, the firm reported that it totaled $332 million , a 2% increase  also derived from Cowan Systems, partially offset by lower brokerage revenue by order and volume.

“We are focused on delivering a superior portfolio of services, driving sustainable revenue growth, restoring margins, and enhancing long-term shareholder value,” Rourke added.

Darrell Campbell , Schneider’s executive vice president and chief financial officer, said that while the current macroeconomic environment is leading to declining consumer confidence and increased uncertainty for shippers, “we expect to deliver improved year-over-year results, albeit moderate compared to our prior outlook . ”

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During the 55th anniversary of Zebra Technologies , Ernesto Hernández, CEO of the company, shared his perspective on the challenges and opportunities of the logistics and technology sector for 2025. In his speech, he highlighted the impact of nearshoring and trade uncertainty with the United States as key factors that will mark the course of the industry in the country.

“Nearshoring is a great reality, but it is not a short-term phenomenon. Next year will be one of sowing and development; companies will just be putting into practice the announced investments,” Hernández explained.

He explained that although Mexico is now three times more competitive in labor costs than China , many of the planned plants are still vacant lots, which require solid infrastructure to realize their potential. 

Another challenge mentioned was the trade uncertainty resulting from the change of government in the United States. “There are threats related to tariffs, but it seems to me that the discourse is more directed towards an issue focused on immigration and political aspects. I trust that we will finally be able to resolve the issue of tariffs well,” said Hernández. 

The head of Zebra Technologies also said the company is strengthening its presence with innovative solutions in emerging markets , highlighting portfolios such as tablets, radio frequency identification (RFID) and bi-optic scanners, as well as original supplies. 

In addition, during the anniversary, the company recognized its strategic sales partners in the technology and logistics sector. Among the winners were companies such as PCG , Etiflex  and Grupo Hasar.

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