Trade policies have become one of the main factors redefining global trade. Beyond tariffs, governments are increasingly resorting to instruments such as import restrictions, subsidies, and other protectionist measures that alter the functioning of global supply chains , according to the World Trade Organization (WTO) .

In its most recent update of the Trade Policy Activity Index (TPA) , developed by the WTO and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) , it was indicated that trade regulatory activity continued to accelerate, reaching a new all-time high in early 2026 , the most pronounced since data collection began.

The indicator reflected that between January and May of this year, global trade policy activity nearly doubled its 2024 level and stood approximately 25% above its 2025 average, confirming that government intervention in international trade continues to intensify.

According to the document, this behavior reflects an increasingly frequent use of trade policy for objectives that go beyond the exchange of goods, such as industrial policy, economic security, and the protection of strategic sectors.

Economists from both organizations identified that the turning point began after episodes such as the US-China tariff escalation between 2018 and 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. These factors were compounded by trade tensions during 2025, which continue this year.

One of the report’s main findings is the shift in the composition of trade measures. While actions aimed at facilitating trade—such as simplifying customs procedures or reducing barriers—have lost momentum in recent years (with the exception of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, where they accounted for more than two-thirds of all measures taken), restrictive actions have become more prevalent .

The study indicated that tariff increases, quantitative restrictions, import bans, and other trade control mechanisms are the main drivers of the growth observed in the index.

The increase in trade measures is no longer concentrated in the major economies . Although G20 countries continue to register the largest spikes in activity, this behavior has spread to smaller economies, reflecting a transformation of the global trade environment .

According to the report, trade policy activity is expected to continue increasing throughout the rest of 2026.

For companies linked to logistics, transport and foreign trade, this scenario implies a more complex regulatory environment, where the ability to adapt supply routes, diversify suppliers and respond to regulatory changes will be increasingly crucial to maintaining competitiveness.

Trade policy decisions no longer only affect market access, but also the configuration of supply chains, operational resilience, and foreign trade costs.

The analysis comes in a context where the United States has imposed tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% ​​on imports from 60 trading partners, including Mexico, under section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 on forced labor, further complicating international trade.

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In the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) totaled  35.2 trillion pesos, representing a growth of 4.1% compared to the same period in 2024, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced this Thursday .

During the reference period, the  remuneration of salaried workers , by the income method, was the component that registered the greatest increase among productive agents, with an increase of 9.9% at an annual rate and an amount of 11 trillion pesos, which meant a participation of 31.4% of GDP.

According to the agency, the  gross operating surplus , that is, business profits, represented 39.6% of GDP in Q3 2025, with an annual growth of just 0.8 percent.

Gross mixed income ,  related to self-employed workers and small businesses, had a share of 21.6% of GDP in the comparison cycle, with a slight rebound at an annual rate of 0.4 percent.

Meanwhile, final consumption , measured by the expenditure method, was the component that sustained domestic demand with 29.3 trillion pesos, representing 83.3% of GDP in Q3 2025, and an annual growth of 4.6 percent.

Exports reached 13.6 trillion pesos during the period, representing 38.6% of GDP and a 6% increase compared to the third quarter of 2024 (3Q24), reflecting greater dynamism in Mexican foreign trade. Imports grew  5.9 % year-on-year, contributing 40.6% to GDP.

Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation –investments in infrastructure, machinery and equipment– totaled 7.7 trillion pesos in the third quarter of 2025, although it registered a 4.9% drop compared to Q3 2024. This component accounted for 22% of GDP.

The quarterly Gross Domestic Product results, calculated using the income and expenditure approach , reflect the strength of domestic consumption , which is one of the driving forces of the Mexican economy.

According to estimates from BBVA Research , a moderate start to private spending is expected in 2026 , although a gradual recovery in consumption could be observed during the course of the year, “as the real wage bill strengthens and uncertainty related to US trade policies decreases.”

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The World Trade Organization (WTO) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) developed the Trade Policy Activity (TPA) Index ,  a tool to measure the evolution of trade policies worldwide .

The new indicator, developed by economists from both organizations and based on a Dynamic Factors Model, draws on data from the WTO’s Trade Tracking Database (TMDB) and the Global Trade Alert (GTA), allowing for a timely and comprehensive capture of the dynamics of trade measures adopted by multiple economies and sectors .

According to the researchers, the index revealed a marked upturn in business activity between 2019 and 2020, coinciding with events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, tensions between major powers, and rising geopolitical risks .

This structural shift reflects a broader use of trade policy to achieve goals such as environmental sustainability, national security, and industrial development. Furthermore, the CPA identifies cyclical patterns and temporary spikes , such as the US-China tariffs, the war in Ukraine, and recent new protectionist measures.

The index also distinguishes between different types of measures, such as trade facilitation versus other interventions. Since the implementation of the Trade Facilitation Agreement in 2017 , there has been a sustained increase in these types of measures, especially during crises such as the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine, when countries sought to ease restrictions on essential goods, they detailed.

Beyond retrospective analysis, the APC has the potential to become an early warning tool for policymakers .

The study’s authors propose incorporating high-frequency macro data to improve the index’s predictive capacity and reduce data collection gaps.

“With further testing and expansion by the authors, the TPA index could become a valuable tool for monitoring global trade policies and could be updated by WTO and IMF economists to promote greater transparency and dialogue,” the organizations stated.

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