The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned that increased volatility and fragmentation of trade policies are weakening the conditions of stability on which developing countries depend to expand their exports, attract foreign investment and diversify their economies .

In its most recent World Trade Update , the international organization detailed that trade rules have become less predictable .

“Countries are increasingly using discriminatory trade measures such as tariffs, investment controls and technological restrictions linked to industrial policy, national security and geopolitics ,” he said.

For developing countries, such conditions can be detrimental, as many of these nations rely on a limited range of exports and have little capacity to absorb economic shocks.

According to the analysis, despite the current adverse environment, trade continues to be an essential driver for developing countries – known as South-South trade – which has expanded rapidly within the framework of the multilateral trading system,  going from $500 billion in 1995 to $6.8 trillion in 2025 .

However, participation remains uneven: the least developed countries account for only 1.1% of global exports , far from the 2% target set for 2030, despite preferential access regimes.

Given this situation, the organization stressed the urgent need to restore certainty to trade rules . A system based on clear and stable rules is key for smaller economies to integrate into global value chains and attract investment.

The World Trade Organization ‘s (WTO) dispute settlement mechanism remains a fundamental tool: since 1995, 644 disputes have been registered, which led to the creation of 378 panels – independent teams of specialists who examine trade disagreements and issue rulings.

“Restoring a fully functional dispute settlement system is essential to maintaining fairness and predictability in global trade,” the UN agency’s report stated .

He also pointed out that services, digital technologies and the green transition are increasingly important sources of economic growth, although many developing countries remain on the sidelines of these sectors.

For example,  least developed countries account for less than 1% of global services exports . Between 2014 and 2024, their services exports grew by only 3% annually, compared to 5.3% globally, revealing the barriers they face in participating in the global services economy.

“Clearer multilateral rules in areas such as digital trade, financial services and professional services would also help ensure that developing economies can participate in these emerging sectors,” UNCTAD explained.

The report concludes that strengthening the multilateral trading system is not only an institutional necessity, but an indispensable condition for inclusive and sustainable development .

Strengthening international cooperation and ensuring the full participation of developing countries in new areas of trade will be crucial to sustaining global economic growth and expanding opportunities in an increasingly uncertain environment, marked by constant tariff changes and conflicts such as the one in the Middle East.

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Once it recovers from the sharp increase in uncertainty regarding trade policies and companies adapt to the new trading environment, the Mexican economy could expand by 1.3% in 2026 , the World Bank (WB) projected , which would mean a downward forecast compared to a previous estimate by the multilateral organization that pointed to a growth of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 1.4 percent.

According to the  World Bank’s World Economic Outlook report , Mexico’s GDP would grow by 1.8% in 2027.

The projections for Mexico occur in a context where the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is on the horizon , as well as constant changes in global trade policy, derived from US tariffs.

Meanwhile, growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to rise slightly to 2.3% in 2026 , “as trade tensions and the uncertainty they entail remain high and domestic demand remains low in some countries, which will partially offset the positive effect of the easing of financial conditions.”

According to the World Bank document, regional growth will consolidate at 2.6% in 2027, as trade flows recover and domestic demand improves.

For the Caribbean, the World Bank estimated that GDP will increase to 5.2% in 2026 and 6.6% in 2027 , driven by Guyana’s current oil boom. “Excluding Guyana, the subregion is projected to grow by around 2.9% and 3.7%, thanks to tourism and related services,” it stated.

In Central America, economic growth is projected to remain generally stable at 3.6% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027. “According to projections, remittance flows will decline, negatively impacting economic activity. On the positive side, the subregion is expected to continue benefiting from resilient exports and growth in the United States.”

Regarding the US economy, the organization predicted growth of 2.2% for this year and 1.9% for 2027 .

In Europe and Central Asia, growth is projected to remain stable at 2.4% in 2026 before rising to 2.7% next year. According to the World Bank, GDP in East Asia and the Pacific will slow to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. Meanwhile, South Asia is expected to grow by 6.2% this year and then potentially recover to 6.5% in 2027.

According to the analysis, global growth is estimated to remain stable over the next two years, with a slight drop to 2.6% in 2026 before increasing to 2.7% next year.

“The global economy is proving to be more resilient than anticipated, despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty,” the report highlighted.

According to the World Bank, the easing of global financial conditions and fiscal expansion in several large economies should help cushion the slowdown.

“To avoid stagnation and unemployment, governments in emerging and advanced economies must vigorously liberalize private investment and trade, curb public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education,” stressed Indermit Gill, chief economist and senior vice president for Development Economics at the World Bank Group.

Mexico, which maintains close economic ties with the United States, is particularly vulnerable to new tariff increases , which could worsen if there were more trade restrictions stemming from the negotiation of the USMCA, which Donald Trump, the president of the United States, has long scorned.

Just last January 13, the White House occupant declared that the USMCA was “irrelevant” and insisted that the United States does not need vehicles made in the country, to which the president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, ruled out entering into debate in the morning conference this Wednesday, since both economies are very integrated .

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