The Mexican economy is estimated to have contracted in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), due to a general decline in economic activity , according to the Preliminary Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT), published this Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

In the January-March period of this year, GDP fell 0.8% on a quarterly basis , while in its annual measurement it registered a slight advance of 0.2%, according to information from the agency.

In the cycle, the timely GDP of  primary activities —agriculture, mining and fishing— fell 1.4% quarterly .

Meanwhile, the  secondary sector , which includes manufacturing and construction, showed a  1.1% quarterly decline . The  tertiary sector , which includes services such as commerce, transportation and communications, education, and health, also registered a negative figure, falling 0.6% quarterly.

In Q1 2026, on an annual basis, the preliminary estimate of GDP for primary activities fell by 0.1%, for secondary activities it fell by 1.1%, and for tertiary activities it rose by 0.9%.

“The Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product offers, in the short term, a view on the evolution of the country’s economic activities,” explained Inegi regarding this indicator.

Despite the quarterly decline, analysts and industry organizations predict a slight improvement in the Mexican economy in the second half of the year, driven by factors such as the World Cup.

In that regard, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated moderate growth of 1.6% for Mexican GDP in 2026 and 2.2% for 2027.

Comment and follow us on LinkedIn:  @GrupoT21

El cargo Mexican economy, with negative signs in the first quarter of 2026 apareció primero en T21.

The manufacturing and service industries boosted Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25), registering a 0.8% increase on a quarterly basis , the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced on Friday  .

According to the Preliminary Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT), the Mexican economy also grew by 1.6% year-on-year during the period . In 2025, the preliminary GDP increased by 0.7% compared to 2024.

This result shows an improvement in the country’s economy, despite the tariff environment and the constant trade changes in the world, which have generated uncertainty in international markets.

By sector, in the period October-December 2025, the timely estimate of GDP for  primary activities , which includes agriculture, livestock, fishing and mining, showed a decrease of 2.7%  in its quarterly measurement.

Meanwhile,  secondary activities – comprising the manufacturing industry – as well as tertiary activities – encompassing trade, transport and services – grew 0.9% quarterly in the cycle.

On an annual basis, the GDP of primary activities increased by 6%, that of secondary activities increased by 0.3%, and that of tertiary activities advanced by 2%.

According to analysts, Mexico exceeded recession forecasts and grew more than expected in 2025, although caution will continue this year.

By 2026, Grupo Financiero BASE  projected growth  of 0.15% to reach 0.9% , driven by the World Cup. However, in a pessimistic scenario, it indicated that  GDP would be 0.6% , while in an optimistic projection it could reach 1.4%. Meanwhile, the Mexican government anticipates growth of between 1.3% and 2.5%.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the Mexican economy could expand by 1.5% this year, as global trade and geopolitical tensions continue to affect various financial markets around the world.

Comment and follow us on X:  @GrupoT21

El cargo Manufacturing and services contribute to the growth of the Mexican economy in Q4 2025 apareció primero en T21.

The manufacturing and services industries boosted Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  in the second quarter of 2025, registering a 0.7% quarterly increase, marking two consecutive quarters of growth, the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) announced Wednesday .

According to the  Timely Estimate of the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT) , at an annual rate, the Mexican economy also grew by  1.2 percent .

This result shows an improvement in the country’s economy, despite the global tariff environment, which has generated uncertainty in international markets.

By sector, in the period April-June 2025, the timely estimate of the GDP of  primary activities , which includes agriculture, livestock, fishing, and mining, registered a decrease of  1.3%  in its quarterly measurement.

Meanwhile,  secondary activities , comprising the manufacturing industry, grew 0.8%  quarterly in the period.  Tertiary activities , which include trade, transportation, and services, grew 0.7% quarterly in the reference period.

At an annual rate, the GDP of primary activities increased by  4.5% , that of secondary activities decreased by 0.2%  , and that of tertiary activities increased by  1.7 percent .

It’s worth remembering that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) improved its economic growth projection for Mexico in the most recent update of its World Economic Outlook (WEO) , estimating a 0.2% increase for this year, up from a 0.3% contraction the organization had forecast last April.

According to an analysis by  Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (BX+) , the data released this Wednesday projects a relatively resilient economy . “On the other hand, high uncertainty will continue to be a drag on activity, so we maintain our forecast of low economic growth for all of 2025,” it noted.

He emphasized that private consumption will be supported by wage growth, although it will remain limited by low job creation, lower consumer confidence, and tight credit conditions.

“Despite an apparently strong second quarter, the export outlook is affected by distortions caused by tariffs and the expectation of slower economic growth in the United States,” the financial institution emphasized.

The Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product provides a short-term view of the evolution of the country’s economic activities, 30 days after the end of the reference quarter, explained INEGI.

Comment and follow us on X:  @GrupoT21

El cargo Mexico’s GDP grows in Q2 2025; its second consecutive quarterly increase apareció primero en T21.

Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registered a 0.2% increase in the first quarter of 2025 at a quarterly rate, showing a recovery after falling 0.6% in the last quarter of 2024, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) announced this Wednesday  .

According to the Timely Estimate of the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT) , at an annual rate, the Mexican economy also grew by 0.6 percent .

This slight increase comes amid tariff threats from the U.S. government, which has caused distrust among investors and generated uncertainty in various global markets.

By sector, in the period January-March 2025, the timely estimate of the GDP of primary activities , which includes agriculture, livestock, fishing and mining, registered an increase of 8.1% in its quarterly measurement.

Meanwhile, secondary activities , comprising the manufacturing industry, decreased 0.3% quarterly in the same period. Tertiary activities , comprising trade, transportation, and services, remained unchanged quarterly in the reference period.

At an annual rate, the GDP of primary activities increased by 6% , that of secondary activities showed a decrease of 1.4% and that of tertiary activities increased by 1.3 percent .

With the increase reported in the first quarter of 2025, the Mexican economy avoided a technical recession.

It’s worth remembering that the  International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated a 0.3%  contraction  in Mexico’s GDP, which could lead to a recession this year.

Meanwhile, the  World Bank (WB)  lowered its economic growth forecast for Mexico from  1.5%  to  0%  by 2025 in response to the escalation of tariffs by the United States.

Comment and follow us on X: @GrupoT21

El cargo Mexico’s GDP grows in the first quarter of 2025 despite US tariffs apareció primero en T21.

According to the Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT) , published this Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the Mexican economy would have shown a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2024 (4Q24), its first fall since 2021, marked by a decline in agricultural and industrial activities.

According to seasonally adjusted figures, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 0.6% in the last quarter of last year, compared to the previous quarter. At an annual rate, the timely estimate showed an increase of 0.6 percent .

The Inegi report indicated that in the period October-December 2024, the GDP of primary activities , which include agriculture, mining and fishing, decreased 8.9% at a quarterly rate .

The secondary sector , which includes manufacturing and construction, showed a quarterly decline of 1.2% in the period in question. The GDP of the tertiary sector , which includes services such as trade, transport and communications, education and health, had a quarterly increase of 0.2% .

In 4Q24, at an annual rate, the timely estimate of GDP for tertiary activities increased by 2.2% , that of secondary activities fell by 1.7% and that of primary activities registered a decrease of 4.6 percent .

“The Timely Estimate of the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product offers, in the short term, a vision of the evolution of the country’s economic activities,” said Inegi regarding this indicator, which registered its first fall since 2021 and after 12 consecutive quarters with a positive performance.

According to estimates by the World Bank (WB) , Mexico will have economic growth of just 1.5% for 2025 and 1.6% for the following year, limited by the application of a restrictive monetary policy and fiscal consolidation.

Other factors that could affect this growth are the uncertainty generated by the protectionist trade policy that the President of the United States, Donald Trump , is seeking to implement, with the imposition of 25% tariffs on products from his southern neighbor.

Comment and follow us on X:@GrupoT21

El cargo Mexico’s GDP contracts in 4Q24; agricultural and manufacturing activities show decline apareció primero en T21.