The proposal by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) to eliminate in 2027 the incentives for the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) applicable to gasoline and diesel is based on an optimistic scenario regarding the stability of international markets, but for specialists in the energy sector and representatives of the trucking industry, there are still external factors that could jeopardize that forecast.

In the document “Tax Reduction Waivers 2026” , the Treasury proposes to stop applying this tax mechanism from 2027 onwards under the assumption that international fuel prices will remain stable, which would allow for increased tax revenue.

Currently, the IEPS (Special Tax on Production and Services) incentives are adjusted weekly, allowing for a partial or total reduction in the tax paid on gasoline and diesel when international prices increase. With this measure, the government seeks to mitigate the volatility of the energy market and prevent abrupt increases in fuel prices for consumers.

According to the SHCP , the elimination of this mechanism responds to an expectation of less volatility in international markets and the possibility of strengthening tax collection without resorting to these fiscal supports.

However, for Carlos Vallejo , founding partner of Qua Energy Consulting , that perspective depends on variables that Mexico does not control, such as the evolution of geopolitical conflicts, the decisions of the United States and the climatic phenomena that affect the production and distribution of hydrocarbons.

“It would seem that the Finance Ministry has a very positive assessment of the international hydrocarbon context. I wouldn’t bet so much on the geopolitical environment becoming calmer, because we depend on decisions that Mexico cannot influence,” he explained.

The specialist noted that events such as conflicts in the Middle East , decisions by US President Donald Trump, and the hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico can significantly alter the behavior of international oil prices and, consequently, fuel prices.

Vallejo added that the proposal also reflects the government’s interest in strengthening tax collection. According to the 2026 Revenue Foregoing document , the IEPS tax credit for diesel fuel for trucking companies will result in an estimated revenue foregone of 56.181 billion pesos in 2026 and 64.394 billion pesos in 2027, which gives an idea of ​​the magnitude of the resources the government would forgo by maintaining this tax benefit.

From the perspective of the trucking industry , the removal of these incentives would have a direct impact on the main operating input of the companies: diesel.

Edgar Martínez Chavero , director of Transportes Hernie and member of the National Executive Council of the National Chamber of Freight Transportation (Canacar) , considered that eliminating this mechanism would significantly increase the tax burden on the sector and put pressure on operating costs.

“It’s a very drastic measure, poorly analyzed. The Treasury, the SAT, wants to collect more money, but if it manages to make this change, what will happen is that many transportation companies will gradually go bankrupt,” he said.

The executive noted that, if the measure were implemented, many companies would try to pass on the increase to transportation fares; however, he acknowledged that ultimately the cost would be absorbed by the consumer through the price of goods that reach the market.

In that regard, he said that Canacar is already in contact with the authorities to present a technical, legal, and administrative analysis of the potential effects of the measure. In his opinion, the proposal requires a broader evaluation before implementation, given its implications for the sector.

Both specialists agreed that the impact would not be limited to the transport sector.

Vallejo explained that approximately 99% of freight transport in Mexico runs on diesel , so any increase in fuel prices inevitably affects freight costs and, subsequently, the final price of products.

“It’s a cascading phenomenon. The carrier will have to increase freight costs, and that increase will ultimately be reflected in the price of the products that the consumer pays,” he argued.

In addition, Mexico remains highly dependent on imported fuels. According to Vallejo, approximately 60% of the fuel consumed in the country comes from abroad, and the renewal of the vehicle fleet requires ultra-low sulfur diesel to meet the specifications of the new vehicles.

Therefore, he considered it premature to anticipate the definitive disappearance of tax incentives.

“Rather than stating that there will be no more stimulus measures, we should wait and see how geopolitical events unfold. Mexico has no control over them, and the behavior of fuel prices will largely depend on that,” he said.

Thus, while the Treasury suggests that international conditions will allow for the discontinuation of tax incentives starting in 2027, specialists in the energy and trucking sectors agree that fuel prices will continue to be influenced by external factors, and therefore consider it premature to end this support mechanism.