A radical transformation in the international trade landscape, driven by drastic changes in US tariff policy, is redefining export competitiveness globally , with developing economies and least developed countries (LDCs) being the most exposed as they generally face larger tariff increases, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned .

According to the most recent World Trade Update , the organization detailed that until 2024, access to the U.S. market was governed primarily by the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Most Favored Nation (MFN) rules , where most trading partners faced similar tariffs. However, by early 2026, the average applied tariff had risen by almost 15 percentage points.

This change has reduced the proportion of imports subject to MFN or duty-free tariffs from 66% to just 20%, resulting in a highly differentiated tariff structure.

UNCTAD pointed out that competitiveness no longer depends solely on productive efficiency, but also on relative preferential margins , which shows how non-uniform tariff structures create advantages for some exporters and disadvantages for others.

In that regard, he cited the example of rice, whose US imports from Italy have become, on average, 12 percentage points cheaper than rice from other suppliers. Conversely, at the beginning of 2026, US imports of South African wine were approximately 17 percentage points more expensive relative to other countries than they were in 2024.

The report warned that developing economies and LDCs are the most exposed , since their exports are generally mostly to the United States.

While developed economies have managed to maintain or even improve their relative competitive position in sectors such as machinery and textiles, many developing nations face increasing obstacles, the analysis indicated.

In that context, for some LDCs, the average tariff increase has exceeded 35 percentage points , which worsens their ability to compete on price in the US market.

Nevertheless, the tariff disparity opens up specific opportunities. For example, countries like Cambodia (with rice) and Haiti (with men’s shirts) could benefit if their competitors face larger price increases.

The escalating tariffs remain a persistent barrier. One example is the cocoa supply chain: while raw cocoa beans enter the United States duty-free, tariffs on chocolate have risen significantly, making it difficult for producing countries like Ivory Coast, Ghana, or Ecuador to process their own raw materials for export.

Given this scenario, conditioned by geopolitical and economic factors, UNCTAD recommended monitoring changes in relative competitiveness , diversifying export markets to reduce dependence on restrictive unilateral policies, and taking advantage of preferential positions where agreements exist.

The report reveals how global trade has entered an era of strategic fragmentation, where the paradigm of a world market with uniform rules and low tariffs is being replaced by a complex chessboard, in which politics weighs as much as productivity.

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The alliance between ANA Holdings (ANA HD) and Nippon Cargo Airlines (NCA) will provide a range of new routes for cargo movement, among which Mexico could benefit from a new connection from the latter airline.

Christian Platteau, CEO of Hermes Aviation , said that, specifically for Mexico, the sectors that would benefit are the automotive, high-tech , and other industries.

“Hopefully, we’ll soon be able to fly to Mexico (NCA). A flight could significantly support us in cargo movements, not only to Japan but to Asia in general. With the two companies together, they’ll be a very important player in Asia,” he said in an interview with T21.

He revealed that there have always been plans to have a flight by NCA , who have even visited various Mexican airports to learn about the potential.

In that sense, he stressed that if this new route exists, it would have to have a stop, for example, in Los Angeles or Anchorage on the way to Japan .

He specified that ANA currently lands in Mexican territory with its Dreamliner 787-8, that is, for passenger transport.

“For NCA, it’s a positive development because we’ll have many additional destinations to sell; we have a very broad portfolio,” he emphasized.

Regarding the impact on cargo movement due to the United States tariff policy, he explained that there was an impact on the flow towards our northern neighbor, however, it was offset by an increase towards Asia and Europe .

“There was a dip in February, but things quickly normalized afterward, and the last three months were better than last year. This could benefit Mexico in the long run,” he noted.

For the end of 2025, he said, without giving details, that “it will be better than expected, and there are several projects we’re working on, we’re putting together several things, but overall, it will be good months. There are several projects with other airlines.”

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Isidoro Pastor, director general of AIFA, emphasized, in response to a question from T21, that these bonded facilities were built last March and have already been awarded , although they only need to complete the corresponding procedures with the Mexican National Customs Agency (ANAM) for them to begin operating.

“They’re ready, they’ve been awarded, and they’re being equipped. All that’s left is for the trading partners themselves to complete the paperwork with the Mexican National Customs Agency to begin foreign trade operations. They’ve told me they intend to start in late July or August,” he said.

In an interview following his participation in ACI Airport Day Mexico , he commented, without giving names, that five are new companies, only one already operating in AIFA .

As well as Talma Mexico Airport Services , which recently announced it will invest nine million dollars to build its second warehouse at the AIFA . The authorization process for the facilities began in 2022 and will end in 2032.

Isidoro Pastor commented that the current facilities have the capacity to receive 470,000 total tons , but in 2024 they will close with more than 447,000 tons, the maximum cargo handling limit.

Under this scenario, he explained that the six new facilities were built with AIFA’s own resources, and with the new infrastructure they will be able to receive almost 900 thousand tons annually .

“We have a strategic bonded facility with the capacity to carry an additional 200,000 tons, and with the expansion of the cargo platform, we can operate five regular-size aircraft simultaneously,” he said.

He assured that the additional facilities will give AIFA the necessary capacity to face the next five years , as long as there is no growth in foreign trade.

They want a train to move cargo

Although Pastor stated that it is a preliminary project promoted by the Railway Transport Regulatory Agency (ARTF) , there is interest in moving cargo via rail to and from the AIFA.

“We are currently conducting a study with the railway agency. They are determining whether it is feasible for the ports, primarily Manzanillo, Lázaro Cárdenas, Veracruz, and Salina Cruz, to transfer from ship to train, and from train to AIFA and clear customs there. However, it is still a preliminary project,” he stated.

He explained that, if this project is carried out, it would be the first intermodal airport in Latin America . He also indicated that they have the necessary land to build a rail terminal, and that after a year and a half of operation, the AIFA would be receiving nearly 200 million pesos annually in rent.

During the first five months of 2025, according to data from the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC) , the AIFA moved 152,524.5 tons, a 16.9% drop compared to the same period in 2024, when it moved 183,494.2 tons.

Pastor considered that the decline in cargo movement is due to the tariff policy imposed by the United States .

“I would encourage everyone not to focus on the AIFA. This is a phenomenon affecting all airports in general, because the tariff policies of our northern neighbor have led to a decline in foreign trade operations. These are simply precautions taken by businesses engaged in this type of activity,” he explained.

Regarding the start of operations for the extension of the Suburban Train to the AIFA, he stated that it will be next December, “although it could be sooner. The construction work is already practically 90% complete; the issue is those two or three kilometers where the social conflict is occurring.” He also indicated that testing will be conducted between October and November of this year.

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At the start of 2025, the Mexican economy technically avoided a recession thanks to a slight rebound in GDP (0.2%) , but it shows clear signs of a generalized slowdown, said Alejandro Saldaña, chief economist at Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (Bx+) , during the webinar Advantages for Mexico in a Changing Environment .

“The fact that we’re not in a recession doesn’t mean the economy is healthy. There’s weakness in virtually every sector, except for agriculture and some food-related manufacturing and exports,” he noted.

He explained that the rebound in Mexican exports in the first quarter was largely due to an advance in shipments to the United States following President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs, which generated a temporary positive effect on the industry.

From a spending perspective, the slowdown is more evident, as private consumption, especially of imported goods, has cooled after two years of strong growth.

“Consumers have become more cautious due to slower job creation, persistent inflation, and economic uncertainty,” Saldaña noted.

Gross fixed investment also weakened, especially in public construction, affected by the completion of flagship projects from the previous six-year term and a fiscal consolidation policy that cuts programmable spending.

On the other hand, the specialist indicated that private investment , although more stable, also shows signs of cooling.

In this sense, with a fiscal deficit that the Treasury is seeking to aggressively reduce this year, and without significant surpluses from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) , the space for fiscal stimulus is narrow.

On the monetary side, although Banxico has begun to reduce rates, Saldaña warned that the scope for further cuts is limited.

“Inflation remains far from the 3% target, with upside risks from the exchange rate, higher labor costs, and low productivity. This forces the central bank to maintain a relatively restrictive stance for longer,” he said.

Despite the complex outlook, the Bx+ economist emphasized that Mexico maintains solid macroeconomic fundamentals : prudent fiscal policy, the autonomy of the Bank of Mexico, robust international reserves, and a relatively balanced current account.

Furthermore, on the trade front, Mexico benefits from greater relative competitiveness against China in the US market, due to lower effective tariffs and the depreciation of the peso, which has absorbed some of the external shocks.

“Although uncertainty persists, especially due to U.S. trade policy and possible internal institutional changes, Mexico retains anchors that help navigate the volatile environment,” he emphasized.

Likewise, despite the slowdown in activity, Saldaña said the labor market remains stable, with an unemployment rate of just 2.6% and real wages on the rise.

This could sustain basic consumption in the short term, although structural risks persist due to rising labor costs without equivalent improvements in productivity.

“The cost per worker has risen, while output per worker has fallen. This puts pressure on inflation and complicates monetary policy decisions going forward,” he explained.

Forecasts for 2025

Ve por Más estimates that GDP will grow just 0.5% in 2025. Inflation could stagnate around 3.8%, while the benchmark interest rate could close slightly below 8%; and the exchange rate, for its part, could consolidate above 20 pesos per dollar.

“An economic recovery will depend on greater clarity in the trade outlook and a sustained reduction in uncertainty, which could revive investment, employment, and consumption toward the end of the year,” Saldaña concluded.

In this context, Bx+ analysts reiterate their target price for the S&P/BMV IPC (Price and Quotation Index) at 61,969 points by the end of 2025, supported by expected earnings growth of 6.5% and a valuation that remains competitive compared to other global markets.

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TIJUANA, BC.- The tariff policy imposed by the United States has caused, in addition to uncertainty, companies to implement strategies to minimize the negative effects on logistics, although they also represent opportunities for growth.

Rebeca Sánchez , professor at CETYS University , explained that tariffs have become a challenge for the relocation of operations in Mexico and internationally, which has led to greater analysis of how to carry them out.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty. We don’t know if what we call tariff policy today will persist tomorrow or permeate the industry. This uncertainty makes us reconsider our strategies as a business, company, or logistics organization, and what we need and should do. Tariff policy forces us to look for ways to survive, but also to seek opportunities,” he noted.

During the panel Mexico on the global map: Logistics and the impact of tariff policies , which took place at the first edition of the  Transportation and Logistics Meeting (ETYL) CALI-BAJA 2025 , Gabriela Fernández, Trade & Logistics Manager of Tacna Services , indicated that this policy has impacted the operational part of the company with delays at border crossings.

“Before, two or three crossings were made, and now if they manage to get one across, it’s a miracle. Now, for products that carry steel, we have to separate it, pay the tax, and be able to declare it. For us, it’s been a heavier burden to have to check the countries of origin, and it’s a different cost,” he said.

He even mentioned that this situation has already caused the closure of five companies dedicated to importing products from China and returning them to the United States.

“These reforms have greatly affected all parties, including customs agencies when they started with the taxes, and they aren’t prepared. The system isn’t prepared to apply that tax because I don’t have it. I think they’re very stomach-pumping measures to be able to pressure for certain things, such as security control, and now they’re fighting us even for water,” he explained.

However, the specialists assured that there are also opportunities to optimize logistics between the two countries , such as forming alliances with certain suppliers and customers.

“Opportunities in the supply chain exist on both sides, the customer and the supplier. Many multinationals are seeking to strengthen strategic alliances with regional suppliers, relocate or relocate our operations closer to the consumer market, utilize new technologies, and also align with customer expectations,” Sánchez said.

Meanwhile, Gabriela Fernández mentioned that her analysis includes reviewing the countries with the highest taxes to find others that can supply raw materials with lower or zero taxes, while also focusing on logistics, cost reduction, and security.

Regarding the impact of tariffs on logistics corridors, they indicated that uncertainty could affect their efficiency in terms of time and costs , but they also offer an advantage for Mexico.

“Previously, I had clients who exported products from the United States to Europe, where they had to distribute them because they didn’t pay taxes. But now they do, and sometimes doing inbound shipping involves more costs and paying for a more expensive warehouse in the United States. Now, they’re trying to redirect their logistics from Tijuana or Baja California to the rest of the world,” Fernández said.

Therefore, he asserted that the country has a great opportunity to improve its logistics and export to the rest of the world, not just the United States. “Europe is opening the door for us and saying, ‘I’m here, sell me,'” he emphasized.

Rebeca Sánchez commented that there are countries like Japan, Brazil, or regions like the European Union with which Mexico has trade agreements. She also indicated that advanced manufacturing would have to be sought, and that “tariff policies are evolving in the sense that I have to look for other trading partners or business opportunities, and not just what we have with North America.”

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