The Transport and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL), conducted by T21 Business Intelligence since 2018, highlighted in its first quarter of 2025 (1Q25) exercise the impact of US President Donald Trump’s decisions among the main factors threatening business.

Unlike what had happened in previous quarters, where public insecurity and increased operating costs had been the main threats, in 1Q25 “Political uncertainty” is the factor that most worries business owners and managers, followed by the “Pace of the national economy” , while in third place were “Public insecurity” and “Increased operating costs” .

The ICTYL survey included approximately 140 executives and managers in the transportation and logistics sectors, where the confidence indicator stood at 85.2 points (1Q18=100) in 1Q25, marking the third quarter of decline and the second below 100 points.

When asked about “Business Volume” in Q1 2025, 24% of respondents responded that it grew between 5% and 10%, while 22.4% said it did not grow or remained stable.

Meanwhile, when asked about the pace of business in 1Q25, 59.2% reported a “Favorable” performance , while 40.8% rated it as “Unfavorable.”

Regarding the outlook for 2Q25, 61.2% considered it to be “Favorable,”while 38.8% stated that it will be “Unfavorable.”

Regarding the U.S. government’s tariff implementation policy, 33% of respondents believed it would have a significant impact on their businesses , while the same percentage identified a moderate impact.

The ICTYL results are in line with the Business Confidence Indicator (ICE) of the National Institute of Geography (INEGI) , which in April fell to 49.4 points, a level not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic, when it stood at 43.9 points, marking its third consecutive month of decline.

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El cargo Confidence in transport and logistics affected by political uncertainity: ICTYL apareció primero en T21.

After the electoral process that was experienced in Mexico last June and with a cabinet defined for the next administration, the Transportation and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL) reached its best level since this measurement was carried out.

In the survey corresponding to the second quarter of 2024 (2Q24), of the more than 140 managers and businessmen who responded this year, 93.9% stated that 2Q24 was favorable and only 6.1% classified it as unfavorable.

Meanwhile, for 3Q24 the outlook for 93.9% of business owners and managers is favorable, while only 6.1% foresee it as unfavorable; percentages that are coincident.

Regarding the ICTYL index carried out by T21 Business Intelligence, for 2Q24 it was located at 111.3 points (1Q18 = 100), this level is the second best level since 1Q18 when this measurement was carried out, only surpassed by 2Q22 when it was located 111.6 points, that is, for the second quarter of this year it was only 0.3 points below.

Once the electoral process was over and with the virtual president-elect, Claudia Sheinbaum, the members of the ICTYL survey showed a neutral perspective regarding the government that she will lead, especially once the members of her legal cabinet were announced.

Regarding the challenges, insecurity remains the main indicator to maintain the growth rate of your business, this hand in hand with the increase in operating costs.

The National Consumer Price Index (INPC) in the first fortnight of July 2024 registered a variation of 0.71% compared to the previous fortnight. General inflation stood at 5.61%, while compared to the previous year, in the same fortnight of 2023 the record was 0.29% and the annual rate was 4.79%, according to data from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi). ) .

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El cargo Confidence in transportation and logistics, at its best level since 2Q22: ICTYL apareció primero en T21.