The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be reviewed in 2026, but uncertainty about whether it will be just a review or whether some aspects will be renegotiated is increasingly leaning toward the possibility of a second review, especially as tensions between Mexico and the United States grow around issues such as the relationship with China.

Luis Miguel Jiménez, a partner in Foreign Trade at Von Wobeser , believes that it will be a fundamental renegotiation, where Mexico will have to put its concerns on the table and find solutions.

In this regard, he indicated that one point that the United States could use as a tool in the renegotiation is tariff pressure to prevent Mexico from importing Chinese products.

“When you start from the premise that you are going to impose tariffs on a trading partner that has a free trade agreement, that speaks of disdain. However, I do not believe that the agreement will end because it is not convenient for either party,” he said.

Jimenez explained that the US administration will seek to address primarily fentanyl trafficking and illegal migration , but areas such as the rules of origin of the automotive industry could also be the subject of renegotiation in 2026.

Although Von Wobeser’s partner assured that the treaty that was initiated during the previous administration of Donald Trump will not be terminated, one of the main issues will be the Mexico-China relationship and the investments that come from that country, especially in sectors that the northern neighbor considers priority, such as the automotive sector.

“Mexico must be very careful in identifying which Chinese products may generate conflicts with the United States, but also understand that others, such as steel, are essential for our supply chains,” said Luis Miguel Jiménez.

Along these lines, he indicated that the United States maintains an investment screening system through a Memorandum of Understanding , which has no legal basis in the T-MEC, but reflects specific concerns about Chinese investments in Mexico.

“The memorandum does not establish binding commitments, but it lays the foundations for identifying the origin of investments and monitoring strategic sectors,” Jiménez explained.

The specialist commented that Mexico must be very intelligent in order not to affect its relationship with the United States, its main trading partner, without neglecting the Asian country.

Luis Miguel Jiménez envisioned a period of great challenges for Mexico, with a renegotiation of the T-MEC that will include tariff pressures, tensions over Chinese investments and the need to balance the interests of its main trading partners.

“If Mexico adopts a transparent and strategic stance, we can reach a good destination in our trade relationship with the United States and China,” he said.

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El cargo T-MEC, a possible renegotiation would take place on essential points; China, the discord apareció primero en T21.

Zero hour is approaching. On November 5th, it will be decided who will govern for the next four years in the United States, Mexico’s main trading partner.

This is a turning point for the southern neighbor as candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have opposing views on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Harris supports a review of the treaty with a view to optimizing its form rather than its substance, while Trump is in favor of renegotiation .

While the coin is in the air and considering the importance that the automotive industry represents for the North American region, this year the T-MEC Seal initiative emerged, promoted by the National Agency of Automotive Sector Suppliers (Anapsa) , which seeks to support compliance with the regional content value , which offers legal certainty not only to companies, but to the governments of the three countries.

To date, more than 320 companies involved in the automotive industry value chain, both domestic and American, already have the T-MEC Seal. Likewise, there are a good number of companies that are waiting for the review of the requirements to join and not only receive the seal, but also become part of the Registry of Trustworthy Companies in the North American Automotive Sector, which is shared with Tier 1 companies in Mexico, the United States, and Canada.

Being part of the registry also enables preferential treatment at Mexican customs and at the United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP); another advantage is that the T-MEC Seal coexists perfectly with the Customs Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (CTPAT) and Authorized Economic Operator (AEO).

The acceptance and advantages that the T-MEC Seal provides to companies has stimulated other sectors to show interest in this process , such as the steel, aluminum, plastics, molds and machinery industries.

“One of the concerns of the United States government is precisely the investments in Mexico by Chinese companies and in this sense what the seal does is give them certainty that the regional content values ​​are from North America,” said Alberto Bustamante, general director of Anapsa, in an interview with T21.

In this regard, Bustamante explained that the T-MEC Seal is intended to be part of the proposals put on the table in the review of the treaty in the three countries, for which it will be presented to the Business Coordinating Council (CCE) .

It should be noted that to date, 50% of the companies that have approached Anapsa to obtain the T-MEC Seal do not comply with the regional content value . Bustamante explained that the agency is responsible for advising companies to comply with all the requirements.

“Since the entry into force of the USMCA, the raw materials that were imported from Korea and China began to be replaced, for example, steel. Today, the cost has been leveled and steel from the region has already begun to be consumed. However, what has not changed, at least until now, are the chips and some electronic components that we continue to import from Asia. However, even with this, we manage to meet the 75% regional content value requirement,” said the general director of Anapsa .

The medium-term goal is for these elements to be manufactured in the North American region. 

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El cargo USMCA Seal gains traction in the automotive industry; could be a “secret weapon” in the upcoming review apareció primero en T21.