“I expected the increase to be phased in over two periods, but they raised it all at once by 10% in the first half of the year, and I told my operator, ‘You can’t raise it again in the second half of the year, I just can’t take it anymore.’” The voice of a transportation user encapsulates a pressure that has ceased to be exceptional and has become a constant: the direct impact of geopolitics on logistics costs and business operations in Mexico.

What until a few years ago was perceived as distant conflicts —particularly in regions like the Middle East— now has concrete effects on the cost structure of supply chains .

Geographical distance is no longer a buffer; in an interconnected environment, any tension translates into immediate adjustments in prices, routes and availability of inputs.

In this new global landscape, geopolitical conflicts have ceased to be isolated events and have become catalysts for economic transformations . As Sergio Hernández, president and CEO of CIAL Dun & Bradstreet in Mexico, warns, “geopolitical conflicts are generating greater fragmentation of global trade and a regionalization of supply chains.”

One of the most immediate transmission channels is the energy market. The rise in oil prices—driven by international tensions, according to the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) —has a dual effect for Mexico: it increases oil revenues, but at the same time raises the cost of containing gasoline prices through tax incentives.

In scenarios like the current one, that benefit can be diluted, as already happened in 2022 with the subsidy to the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS).

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El cargo From Hormuz to Mexico: geopolitics strikes the chain apareció primero en T21.

The growing geopolitical tension in the Middle East, which has forced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, opens a window of opportunity for nearshoring in the Cali-Baja region , which, being close to the United States, the world’s largest consumer market, can be an option for various industries that still have part of their production in Asia.

“This could be an opportunity to position Cali-Baja and Mexico as relocation centers, since our geography continues to help us a lot to bring all the supply chain closer to the production points and finally to the consumption points,” said Bertha Martínez, coordinator of the Bachelor’s Degree in International Logistics at CETYS University Campus Mexicali .

In an interview with T21, the specialist explained that the crisis in Hormuz is accelerating the need to regionalize supply chains , to make them more centralized and less fragmented, given the uncertainty that prevails in world trade.

“Supply chains are no longer focused so much on costs; they must focus on resilience, on the ability to resolve unforeseen events in times of uncertainty , when they become fragile and inflection points begin. Perhaps what makes us most vulnerable right now is what can ultimately make us stronger,” Martínez explained.

In this context, the Cali-Baja region becomes an attractive point for companies that are looking to diversify their supply and logistics routes to reduce their dependence on critical or strategic blocks.

Cali-Baja, which encompasses San Diego and Imperial counties in the United States and Baja California in Mexico, is one of the most important areas for the process of reconfiguring supply chains in North America.

According to the  Binational Trade & Competitiveness Report 2025 , prepared by the  World Trade Center San Diego , 30% of the foreign value added present in U.S. exports comes from Mexico and Canada , reflecting the integration of the three countries in North American supply chains.

One of the trends that companies are implementing to anticipate disruptions is inventory planning , as they seek to strengthen their stock , but not at the point of sale, as traditionally happens.

“We are now seeing inventories as fragmented around the world; they are being established as safety stockpiles in different locations so that when there are routes that cannot be accessed or points that cannot be considered for operation at that moment, they can be moved to other places,” he pointed out.

Martínez considered that Cali-Baja could have an advantage in that situation, since its geographical location makes it a strategic area.

“It could be a kind of hub where companies could locate their inventories in case of any disruption or crisis at a global level, so that companies have these safety stocks,” he noted, emphasizing that this could accelerate the arrival of investments to Baja California.

In 2025 alone, Baja California attracted 1.892 billion dollars, placing it in fourth position nationally, according to data from the Ministry of Economy (SE) .

Crisis in Hormuz triggers logistical costs

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has caused an increase in the price of gasoline and diesel in the United States, fuels essential for the cross-border transport of goods.

“They’ve already seen price increases; for example, the price of gasoline in the Los Angeles, California area has risen by almost 70 cents per gallon, which is quite significant. The same has happened with diesel. The price is between five dollars and 5.30 dollars per gallon in Southern California,” Martínez explained.

Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) indicates that diesel has increased by 34% compared to the price recorded before the conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran, representing the largest increase in more than three years.

The increase in fuel prices in the United States is impacting logistics costs, because they directly affect inputs in this sector, which has also led to an increase in freight prices , due to the integration of supply chains between Mexico and the United States.

The logistics specialist commented that in California, these supplies are more expensive than in other states in the neighboring country to the north. “The cost structure in the logistics sector, due to fuel and diesel prices, is already being affected. Carriers are beginning to see these changes and are starting to be more strategic in their supply chains.”

According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) , the transit of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately a quarter (25%) of the world’s maritime oil trade passes, has registered a drastic drop of 97% in daily transits.

Despite this, global supply chains are shifting from cost efficiency to risk management. In this context, Cali-Baja emerges as one of the best-positioned regions to capitalize on a current situation affecting various economic blocs worldwide .

The second edition of ETYL Cali-Baja (Transport and Logistics Meeting) will take place on May 14th.  This forum, organized by Grupo T21 , will bring together industry leaders and nearly 200 attendees at the Real Inn Hotel in Tijuana. Through four panels, specialists will analyze the  challenges and opportunities in the binational logistics context and its impact on supply chains .

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El cargo Cali-Baja, an opportunity for nearshoring amid the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz apareció primero en T21.

In Latin America, both  Mexico and Brazil would be the countries most affected by a potential total closure of the Strait of Hormuz , although the partial closure has already led to price increases and shortages of products—such as helium and methanol—due to disruptions in global maritime and air transport. For some commodities , the impact would be felt not only in supply chains but also in basic food items.

Arcadio Martínez, VP Global Tender Management at DSV Air & Sea, specified that, in maritime transport, the most exposed would be Mexico, as well as Brazil due to its direct service from Asian ports and its connection to the Persian Gulf .

“The other countries wouldn’t be as exposed, but the impact on air travel would be felt by almost everyone. Gulf airlines operate many services worldwide. Emirates, for example, has a service via Miami to Bogotá or Brazil, or to other countries. Initially, they offered passenger transport, which allowed for cheaper air freight, and then cargo services, which have disappeared because they’ve repositioned themselves in other traffic. The delay in maritime transport will lead to an increase in air freight, and Latin America will be affected by the reduced available capacity,” he explained in the webinar “The Crisis in the Middle East: What Does It Mean for Your Supply Chain?”

Santiago Zapata, Business Development Specialist Sales Colombia at DSV, explained that there has been an 8% impact on global air capacity , as well as a 40% increase in fuel prices.

He emphasized that Emirates and Qatar Airways are among the most affected airlines, which has harmed their services to Latin America and forced them to relocate fleets.

“The shutdown affects 13% of global capacity, and we have three factors that, combined, will not allow for fare stability and will continue the trend of maintaining inflationary pressure and the loss of capacity globally . In addition, some airlines have implemented war surcharges , and insurance premiums have increased,” he noted.

According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) ,  risk premiums for ships operating in the area have increased by up to 300%, quadrupling insurance costs per voyage in some cases, adding to the price of the shipment.

He added that there is currently more than 20% capacity between Asia and Europe, while in South Asia it exceeds 13%, “which affects volumes across the entire region.”

Arcadio Martinez explained that, since the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz began on February 28, stemming from Iran’s offensive within the framework of the conflict it faces with the United States-Israeli axis, fuel prices for shipping companies have skyrocketed, to the point of doubling, so companies have begun to implement emergency fuel surcharges (EFS), in addition to the war surcharge .

“Shipping companies have fuel costs that account for 25% of their expenses, and if it’s almost 50%, they’ll lose a lot of money, which is why they’re implementing this surcharge. If a container is moved from Asia to Latin America, we’ll be affected; that explains the price increase in Los Angeles and Long Beach,” he explained.

In that regard, Santiago Zapata said that  shipping companies will begin to redistribute their fleets on the most profitable routes to Europe or Asia , which could affect Latin America, since that region can afford a larger fleet, just like North America.

“This will cause many services that do not originate directly from the Middle East region to be affected, such as those that come through the Caribbean,” he stressed.

As of March 16, 2026, 140 active container ships with a combined capacity of 458,000 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) were stranded in the Persian Gulf, representing 1.9% of the global fleet. This resulted in the disruption of 650,000 TEUs of weekly traffic.

“A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would force a reconfiguration of these services. Furthermore, we have options: leave the cargo at transshipment ports and wait for the following weeks and accept the delay, repurchase the cargo elsewhere and send it via a route that is safer, and return the cargo to its origin,” he added.

He mentioned that MSC , Maersk , and CMA CGM are the main shipping companies affected by the conflict in the Middle East.

Under this scenario, both specialists pointed out that it is necessary to anticipate urgent shipments and have a clear vision of the forecast ; in addition, impacts on transit times to Latin America, lack of services, some shipping companies may even avoid certain ports, or China may increase the production of new containers, among other things.

Martínez and Zapata indicated that 20 million barrels and between 120 and 140 ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily , while after the blockade it dropped to between four and five, only oil tankers, from Iran.

Similarly, Arcadio Martínez explained that the impact is not only on crude oil, but also on products such as urea, helium, sulfur, methanol, aluminum, polyethylene, and others .

“This region is a major producer of raw materials, and we are currently in the spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere, which will lead to an increase in fertilizer prices, as well as in the price of food and helium, which is used in electrocardiogram machines. Given the revolution we are experiencing in artificial intelligence and data centers, this will cause a standstill. This will generate a cascading effect if it is not resolved soon, and the longer supply chains remain closed, the longer it will take to reopen them,” he explained.

Martínez predicted that if crude oil production were to stop, for example, in Iraq, it would take up to a month and a half to reach the same levels as before the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.

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El cargo This is how a possible total closure of the Strait of Hormuz would impact logistics chains apareció primero en T21.

Uncertainty surrounding US trade policies and geopolitical conflicts, such as those in the Middle East, will continue to affect air cargo this year, particularly in terms of rates; however, high-value products and e-commerce will drive growth in air freight.

Rubén Mascaraque, Corporate Airfreight Product Manager at TIBA , emphasized that the demand for high-value products—such as iPhone smartphones and sensitive goods (pharmaceuticals and perishables)—will continue to drive e-commerce, despite the contraction from China and the challenges arising from the conflict in the Middle East.

In addition to the growth of semiconductors , which are fundamental to artificial intelligence (AI), and developments in the automotive industry, during the webinar “Air Cargo Outlook 2026 ,” it was suggested that the impact on maritime transport will benefit air transport.

Leonel Ortiz, Vice President of Operations at Avianca Cargo , explained that air cargo has registered constant growth since 2024, while in 2025 it reached record levels.

He recalled that in January of this year, moderate growth was expected, driven by e-commerce , disruptions in maritime transport, nearshoring (relocation of production lines) and high-value perishables, where Latin America only handles 3% globally; however, the value is significant and “that makes it more attractive.”

He mentioned that, in the case of Colombia, the export of flowers, perishables and pharmaceuticals , and, in terms of imports, e-commerce, technology and consumer goods have made this country a key player in the air transport market.

“ E-commerce is changing the game. Recent growth has been close to 30%. Now there are more shipments, smaller and more frequent, which changes operations. We’ve gone from consolidation to a constant flow. E-commerce will continue to drive demand for air cargo in the coming years,” he said.

William Rojas, Director of Cargo and Platform at El Dorado Airport in Colombia, commented that as part of the supply chain and ecosystem, an integrated model is required, a public policy for the development of procedures and regulations that facilitate cargo handling.

“We know that there are risks associated with the logistics chain and this is what we would seek to anticipate, identify and map as ecosystems, although we do not disregard the good practices carried out in other airports such as the ONE Record initiative of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) for predictability,” he explained.

In 2025, El Dorado Airport handled 829,000 tons of cargo , a 2.4% year-on-year increase, primarily in the transport of flowers and perishable goods. It also has 24 cargo airlines operating in Bogotá.

Impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz

Rubén Mascaraque mentioned that the conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran has caused a loss of approximately 13% in air capacity, although in some weeks it has reached up to 18% , in addition to route changes that have increased operating costs. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has impacted fuel supplies, cutting off 20% of the global supply.

 “ Fuel prices are rising, and this is something we will continue to see impacting fares in the coming weeks or months; congestion at other airports, we are not aware of it happening right now, but there will be a rebound effect in the coming weeks because there is a lot of demand from the Asian market to Europe, the United States and the Latin American market, which will bring more complications to an already strained supply chain,” he stated.

He noted that in 2025, global air cargo grew by 3.7% year-on-year , led by the Asia-Pacific region with an increase of 4.2%, while Latin America increased by 2.3%, with Peru and Panama driving this growth, in addition to Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, which hold 60% of the market share.

Meanwhile, the United States was one of the countries that fell, largely due to its tariff policies which, starting in April 2025, complicated e-commerce, also for the part of China that diverted cargo.

“There was sufficient capacity, but aircraft production isn’t progressing at the desired pace, resulting in a significant backlog of orders that represents almost 60% of the active fleet. This often means that airlines have had to ground aircraft for repairs, adjusting their fleets, and this has also negatively impacted capacity. It is expected that the situation will begin to normalize and that these pending aircraft will be delivered by the beginning of 2030,” Mascaraque stated.

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El cargo They predict that e-commerce and high-value products will boost global air cargo. apareció primero en T21.

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting energy markets and global supply chains , the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned .

According to an analysis by the international organization, the Strait of Hormuz is a vital passage for world trade, and the overall global economic impact will depend on the duration of the constant attacks, attributed to Iran’s offensive within the framework of the conflict it faces with the United States-Israeli axis.

“These events raise concerns about global trade and development prospects. Oil markets have reacted quickly, with Brent crude prices already exceeding $90 per barrel, a 27% increase,” the UNCTAD study stated.

He noted that rising costs for energy, fertilizers and transportation —including freight rates, ship fuel prices and insurance premiums—could lead to higher food prices and “intensify pressures on the cost of living, especially for the most vulnerable.”

UNCTAD estimated that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately a quarter (25%) of the world’s maritime oil trade passes, has virtually stopped, registering a drastic 97% drop in daily transits.

According to the analysis, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are jeopardizing energy supplies , particularly to Asia. As a result, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices have risen by 74 percent.

In maritime transport , freight costs for tankers have risen by up to 72%, while the price of marine fuel has doubled. Risk premiums for vessels operating in the area have increased by 300%, quadrupling insurance costs per voyage in some cases, adding to the overall cost of shipping.

The implications go beyond energy. The report highlighted that 38% of LNG and a third (33%) of the world’s maritime fertilizer trade depend on this route.

The lack of access to these supplies threatens to drive up food prices globally again, repeating patterns seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and the start of the conflict in Ukraine.

The impact is especially severe for developing nations, which rely heavily on imports from the Persian Gulf region. Countries such as Sudan, which imported 54% of its fertilizers in 2024, Australia (32%), Sri Lanka (36%), and Tanzania (31%) are among those most vulnerable to shortages of agricultural inputs.

Furthermore, the increase in bond yields in countries of the region, such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, reflects an increase in borrowing costs that exacerbates the economic pressure on public finances.

UNCTAD calls for de-escalation

Given this scenario, UNCTAD stressed the urgent need to de-escalate tensions and safeguard civilian infrastructure and freedom of navigation. The vulnerability of maritime traffic hotspots underscores the fragility of a highly interconnected global trading system, where a blockade like the one in the Strait of Hormuz can jeopardize sustainable development and social stability worldwide.

“To reduce risks to global trade and development, including environmental risks, it is necessary to de-escalate the situation and safeguard shipping, ports, seafarers and other civilian infrastructure, while maintaining safe trade corridors in accordance with international law and freedom of navigation,” he stressed.

The current situation in the Strait of Hormuz comes at a time when several developing economies are struggling to pay their debt, facing a constriction of fiscal space, and have a limited capacity to absorb further increases in input and output prices.

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El cargo UNCTAD warns of a drop in maritime transport and a rise in fuel prices due to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz apareció primero en T21.

Faced with adjustments due to geopolitical and structural pressures, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned of the stagnation of global trade and maritime transport resulting from the tariff policy promoted by the United States.

“Political tensions, new tariffs, changing trade patterns, and the reconfiguration of maritime routes are reshaping the geography of maritime trade,” the organization stated.

According to its report,  Shipping in Review 2025: Staying the Course in Troubled Waters , released Wednesday, global seaborne trade grew by 2.2% in volumes and 5.9% in ton-miles in 2024, but is forecast to slow by 0.5% in 2025 , “before averaging 2% annually over the period 2026-2030.”

He detailed that maritime energy trade patterns showed a shift, with coal increasing, oil remaining stable with longer routes, and gas also registering an increase.

The report highlighted that trade in critical minerals is expanding, creating opportunities, but also risks. “These developments are transforming maritime trade and placing new demands on transport and logistics .”

According to the agency’s analysis, there were route changes due to various situations, such as the Red Sea crisis in 2024, which caused an increase in freight rates . Added to this were geopolitical tensions this year, such as the disruption of maritime activity in the Strait of Hormuz .

“The Strait of Hormuz, through which 11% of global trade and a third of seaborne oil trade flow, also faces disruption risks. The diversion to longer routes will increase carbon emissions from shipping in 2024,” he explained.

UNCTAD noted that new tariffs in the United States and other countries have added complexity. For developing economies , the rerouting could create transshipment opportunities at some ports, but would also increase maritime transport costs.

Regarding fleet renewal , he indicated that safe vessel recycling, global standards on greenhouse gas emissions control, and a skilled workforce are key to a timely and just transition to low- carbon shipping .

In the face of geopolitical and trade disruptions, he considered that freight rate volatility has become the new normal.

“Container, bulk, and tanker freight rates have remained high and volatile in 2024 and 2025, with sharp fluctuations amid geopolitical tensions, shifts in trade policies, and supply-demand imbalances. This instability is increasing global trade costs,” he emphasized.

Vessel diversions have lengthened voyages, reduced effective capacity, and raised operating costs, impacting container shipping , with spot and charter rates nearing their COVID-19 pandemic peaks in mid-2024 before declining, “but still well above pre-crisis levels. Volatility has continued into 2025 amid new tariffs and the risk of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.”

The report warned that ports are under increased pressure as vessel diversions and rescheduling of ports of call disrupt schedules.

“Between December 2023 and March 2024, average port waiting times increased by 23%, to 6.4 hours in developed economies, and by 7%, to 10.9 hours, in developing economies,” he added.

In this regard, he indicated that it is urgent to improve port performance, as well as adapt the infrastructure and services of these facilities to the impacts of climate change and modernize them for the energy transition.

Faced with an adverse environment, UNCTAD proposed various actions to improve maritime transport. In this regard, it considered that we must move toward a sustainable, resilient, and digitalized future .

He suggested leveraging maritime transport and logistics for equitable integration and transformation , promoting fleet modernization and sustainable maritime trade practices, implementing regulatory measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as well as utilizing digital solutions and strengthening the regulatory framework to address cyber risks, among others.

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El cargo UNCTAD warns of slowdown in global shipping due to tariffs apareció primero en T21.

By Karina Quintero and Humberto Cruz

Following the attacks on three key Iranian nuclear facilities last Saturday by the United States , and the ongoing war between Israel and Iran , geopolitical tensions have escalated in various areas, such as the maritime transport of goods and oil, which, according to analysts, could cause impacts on global trade , with a possible closure of one of the most important routes in the region, the Strait of Hormuz , which would mean another strong disruption that would be added to the tariffs.

Carlos Martner , coordinator of Integrated Transportation and Logistics at the Mexican Institute of Transportation (IMT) , said that this maritime route is of great importance since approximately 20% of the world’s oil and petroleum derivatives trade passes through it.

Furthermore, the Strait of Hormuz is an entry point to countries that are prominent in the production of this hydrocarbon and borders the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.

But beyond the impact on oil prices, which would increase the cost of crude oil if the canal were to close, there are other large-scale maritime flows, including containerized cargo, the specialist explained to T21 .

“For example, we have enormous ports, especially the largest, which is precisely Dubai Ports, a container terminal company that is very large worldwide and has its headquarters in the port called Jebel Ali, in the United Arab Emirates, and which annually moves some 15 million 20-foot containers (TEU), and to put its importance into perspective, it is more than the containerized cargo that all Mexican ports combined move annually,” he specified.

According to statistics from the  General Coordination of Ports and Merchant Marine (CGPMM) , belonging to the  Ministry of the Navy (Semar) , ports in Mexico ended 2024 with the record of  nine million 375 thousand 570 TEUs operated , which meant a growth of 12% compared to a year earlier and the first time that this figure was reached.

Martner explained that manufactured goods moved in containers related to the automotive and electronics industries, as well as consumer goods from various countries, including China, India, and the United States, which are traded in this region, pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Of course, a closure of the strait would be very bad; it would be another major disruption, something we already have enough of with tariffs and the like. And on the other side is the Red Sea, where there’s also a disruption for all the ships coming from the Far East and heading to Europe that cross through the Suez Canal,” he pointed out.

The specialist considered that if a closure were to occur, it would be temporary and would not last long, since in addition to the rise in oil prices, there would also be an increase in the cost of maritime freight .

He also stressed that this would even harm economies that are not considered enemies by Iranians, and would also reinforce the threat of a possible global recession .

“It would also, in some ways, harm economies like India and China, which receive the oil produced in these countries and are also major exporters of products to Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia,” he emphasized.

In the case of Mexico, Carlos Martner noted that the country does not have very strong trade with nations in the Far East, although this would generate inflationary pressures , and he considered that the repercussions would be rather global.

He indicated that the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz would also have an impact on the Middle East, since container and oil ships enter through that route, which would immobilize part of the fleet that circulates through that area .

It’s worth remembering that, following the attacks on Iran, the parliament of this Middle Eastern country approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which, at its narrowest point, separates Oman from Iran by nearly 30 kilometers. However, the final decision will be made by the Supreme National Security Council.

Given this situation, the United States has asked China to prevent Iran from closing the strait, which has two maritime lanes, each just three kilometers long, and connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea.

Impact on fuels 

In the specific case of fuels , the implications of a possible closure, even partial, of the Strait of Hormuz raised alarm bells in the international market .

“The truce in the so-called ’12-day war’ has temporarily reduced tension in the Middle East , but the latent risk of disruption to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the key points of global energy trade , persists ,” according to Marcial Díaz , of  QUA Energy and a consultant in the energy sector.

He explained that approximately 20% of the world’s oil , some 17 million barrels per day, transits through this route, in addition to key volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) , particularly from Qatar .

And although the temporary ceasefire has brought some calm, “the possibility of sporadic attacks or partial closures keeps the international market on alert,” Díaz explained.

From their perspective, the most immediate impacts on the hydrocarbon market would be the rise in the price of Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for speculative reasons, as well as a rise in the price of LNG and its derivatives.

“A partial closure of the Strait could increase the price of a barrel by $8 to $15; a complete closure could push Brent oil above $120, depending on the duration of the conflict,” Díaz warned.

Although Mexico does not import crude oil directly from the Persian Gulf , its dependence on international benchmarks makes it particularly vulnerable in terms of prices.

“Mexico imports more than 72% of the gasoline it consumes, primarily from the United States. Although it doesn’t purchase crude oil from the Persian Gulf, prices are set globally,” he explained.

In that sense, a rise in Brent or WTI prices would also end up making refined products more expensive . “This affects the costs of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) , private importers , and service stations ,” he added.

And while there are fiscal mechanisms to contain these increases, such as the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) , its application could generate other pressures.

“If the government maintains the IEPS incentives in the face of an international increase, there will be additional fiscal pressure,” Díaz said.

Regarding supply , Díaz was clear: no immediate risk is anticipated, unless a global-scale logistical disruption occurs . However, he did emphasize that ” strategic inventories in Mexico, both public and private, are limited, averaging three to five days of national coverage.”

Regarding how energy sector companies are preparing for these types of scenarios, the analyst indicated that a series of measures are already underway: “They are using price hedging , early supply contracts, logistics diversification with longer or safer routes, and strengthening strategic inventories, especially in high-demand areas.”

He also added that some companies are reviewing their short-term and ocean freight contracts to include force majeure or rerouting clauses.

The most likely scenario, according to Díaz’s analysis, would be a partial impact : temporarily halted traffic, stricter inspections, threats, or even targeted attacks, without a total lockdown.

“That would put Brent oil prices in the $90 to $100 per barrel range and force a temporary reconfiguration of routes , without a global supply collapse,” Díaz said.

Although Mexico’s energy supply chain is not directly connected to that region, the country is not immune to the impact.

“ Rising consumer prices , increased pressure on fiscal incentives for the IEPS (Tax Expenditure) , possible adjustments to energy and trade policy, especially in refining and imports , and the need for ongoing monitoring of inventories, coverage, and logistics,” Díaz listed as the main effects for Mexico.

(Main image source: Wikipedia).

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El cargo Closure of the Strait of Hormuz could affect Mexico’s fuel price hikes apareció primero en T21.