The uncertainty generated by changes in North American trade policies has become one of the main factors holding back investment decisions and business strategies within the heavy vehicle industry , said Manny Katakis, Senior Analyst at S&P Global Mobility .

The warning comes in a context where the firm reduced its economic growth expectation for Mexico from 1.2% to 0.9% for 2026, while the forecast for North America was also adjusted downwards by 0.3 percentage points compared to its previous report.

According to the company, the slower economic growth is associated with trade uncertainty, high energy costs, and persistent geopolitical tensions at a global level.

During the AMDA Commercial Vehicles Forum 2026 , held by the Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors (AMDA) , the specialist pointed out that beyond tariffs or trade measures, the main challenge for manufacturers and customers is the lack of certainty about the permanence of these policies.

“More than the policies themselves, what is affecting the market is inconsistency and uncertainty,” he commented.

Katakis explained that the industry continues to monitor the evolution of trade policies driven by the United States, as well as the review process of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , whose definition will be key for manufacturers’ long-term planning.

He even suggested that, although it is not part of S&P Global Mobility ‘s base scenario , there is a possibility that the three countries will end up negotiating separate bilateral agreements instead of maintaining a trilateral treaty.

“It is a possible scenario among the options that currently exist,” he said.

Given this environment, several commercial vehicle manufacturers have begun to adjust their manufacturing strategies , favoring greater regionalization of production in North America.

According to the analyst, some automakers are strengthening operations specifically aimed at serving local markets, while others are reconfiguring their supply chains to reduce risks associated with regulatory or commercial changes.

Among the examples he mentioned were new investments and production projects announced in Mexico, the United States and Canada, as well as strategic moves by manufacturers seeking greater flexibility to respond to possible changes in the region’s trade conditions.

He recalled that the Mexican market for medium and heavy vehicles went from occupying the eighth position worldwide to number 14 after the slowdown observed after the pre-purchase of units registered in 2024, which has forced manufacturers and distributors to rethink strategies for the coming years.

Katakis highlighted that one of the companies best positioned to adapt to changing scenarios is PACCAR , because it has production capacity in all three North American countries.

Conversely, he explained that other manufacturers maintain more concentrated production structures, which limits their room for maneuver in the face of possible tariff adjustments or modifications to trade agreements.

The specialist added that, in addition to trade uncertainty, factors such as the conflict in the Middle East continue to put pressure on the sector’s operating costs . As an example, he pointed out that the average price of diesel in Mexico is currently around 28 pesos per liter, compared to the 25 pesos average observed during 2025, a situation that continues to put pressure on transport companies and the logistics chain.

However, he considered that there are positive signs for the industry, including the recovery of heavy vehicle production in North America , an improvement in order intake and the expectation of a moderate economic recovery in Mexico during the next few years.

“There are encouraging signs, but we still need greater clarity on trade matters so that companies can resume their investment plans with greater confidence,” he concluded.

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