Inflation in Mexico accelerated again last February, driven by the rise in agricultural products, after the increase shown last January, when it stood at 3.79% at an annual rate, according to data published this Monday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

According to the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), which measures the variation in prices of a basket of goods and services, in the second month of the year this indicator stood at 4.02% in its annual measurement .

The core price index – which does not take into account the most volatile goods and services – increased 0.46% monthly and 4.50% annually, with a rise in the prices of goods of 0.39% and an increase in the prices of services of 0.52% on a monthly basis.

The non-core price index —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations—rose 0.64% month-on-month and 2.44% year-on-year. Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices increased 4.94%, while energy and regulated tariffs rose 0.02% month-on-month.

Products that impacted inflation

In February of this year, the products that showed the greatest price increases were lemons with a rise of 25.97%, tomatoes with 22.51%, potatoes and other tubers with 20.86%, green tomatoes with 18.89%, and bananas with 10.79%.

Conversely, the products with the greatest decrease in their cost during the cycle were onions with 8.40%, serrano peppers with 6.76%, zucchini with 4.70%, eggs with 2.63%, LP domestic gas with 1.84%, and chicken with 1.29 percent.

Inflation did not affect the entire country uniformly. The states with variations above the national average were Veracruz,  Tlaxcala, and Puebla . Conversely, the states that reported the smallest increases were Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, and Baja California .

According to an analysis by  Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (BX+) , the inflationary outlook has recently deteriorated due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the consequent increase in international energy prices, coupled with the reluctance to lower underlying inflation.

Month-over-month growth was the highest for a February since 2023. Notable increases were seen in the prices of fruits and vegetables (tomatoes, potatoes, tomatillos, lemons). As is typical in the first months of the year, the prices of educational services (university) also increased, he noted.

“The inflationary outlook is more complex, given the reduced slack in the economy, wage pressures, and now, higher international prices for energy products,” BX+ emphasized.

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The manufacturing and service industries boosted Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25), registering a 0.8% increase on a quarterly basis , the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced on Friday  .

According to the Preliminary Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT), the Mexican economy also grew by 1.6% year-on-year during the period . In 2025, the preliminary GDP increased by 0.7% compared to 2024.

This result shows an improvement in the country’s economy, despite the tariff environment and the constant trade changes in the world, which have generated uncertainty in international markets.

By sector, in the period October-December 2025, the timely estimate of GDP for  primary activities , which includes agriculture, livestock, fishing and mining, showed a decrease of 2.7%  in its quarterly measurement.

Meanwhile,  secondary activities – comprising the manufacturing industry – as well as tertiary activities – encompassing trade, transport and services – grew 0.9% quarterly in the cycle.

On an annual basis, the GDP of primary activities increased by 6%, that of secondary activities increased by 0.3%, and that of tertiary activities advanced by 2%.

According to analysts, Mexico exceeded recession forecasts and grew more than expected in 2025, although caution will continue this year.

By 2026, Grupo Financiero BASE  projected growth  of 0.15% to reach 0.9% , driven by the World Cup. However, in a pessimistic scenario, it indicated that  GDP would be 0.6% , while in an optimistic projection it could reach 1.4%. Meanwhile, the Mexican government anticipates growth of between 1.3% and 2.5%.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the Mexican economy could expand by 1.5% this year, as global trade and geopolitical tensions continue to affect various financial markets around the world.

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According to the analysis, trade volume grew 4.9% year-over-year, while the dollar value increased 6% , which was an improvement over the WTO’s forecast. The digital value chain, from silicon to AI devices, was a key factor in this expansion.

“Countries’ measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, and increased trade with the rest of the world, particularly among emerging economies, helped mitigate trade setbacks in 2025,” said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

AI-related goods, such as semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment, accounted for nearly half of trade growth in the first half of the year , with a 20% year-over-year increase in value. South-South trade also showed dynamism, growing 8% year-over-year and up to 9% between partners other than China.

Outlook for 2026

Despite improved projections for this year, the outlook for 2026 is less encouraging, as the delayed impact of tariff increases, reduced inventories, and greater political and trade uncertainty could lead to a slowdown.

Global merchandise trade volume growth is expected to contract to  0.5% in 2026. Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth is estimated at 2.7% for 2025 and 2.6% for the following year.

The WTO estimates that Europe will lead growth in services exports in 2025, followed by Asia and the Middle East, while North America will show a moderate performance. In 2026, Asia and Africa are expected to accelerate their services exports , while other regions will face a slowdown or stagnation.

The European Union recently announced it will double its steel tariff from 25% to 50% to safeguard its steel mills and jobs; it will also halve the tariff-free steel quota to combat Chinese competition, which is considered unfair.

The WTO projections come amid uncertainty in global trade, driven by the United States’ tariff policy, which has affected the flow of global merchandise trade.

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Ocean Network Express (ONE) , comprised of  Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NYK) ,  Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL)  and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. ( K Line) , has ruled out applying surcharges to the US tariffs that will be applied from October 14 to vessels owned, operated or built in China.

The fee was previously announced by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) and will begin with a phased implementation over a three-year period for maritime services payments involving vessels built or controlled by Chinese capital that call at ports in the United States.

Along these lines, the Japanese company assured its customers that “they can rest assured that ONE remains committed to ensuring service consistency and reliability.”

“No new surcharge will be applied. ONE confirms that no new surcharges related to the USTR service fees mentioned above have been implemented,” the company stated.

The company also ruled out any changes to its service coverage, stating that “ONE does not anticipate any changes to our port rotations or schedule at this time.”

“ONE will continue to closely monitor regulatory changes and provide immediate updates if new information becomes available,” the firm stated.

With information from Portal Portuario , a media outlet specializing in ports and maritime transport in Chile.

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The story of Grupo RAMEbegins with a steering wheel and a dream . Its founder started as a local route operator and, after years of road experience, acquired his first tractor-trailer.

That step marked the beginning of a company that, over the years, would consolidate itself in Saltillo, Coahuila, as a benchmark in cargo transportation.

RAME’s growth stemmed from projects that required the addition of more than 100 federally licensed carriers. This support network allowed the company to transition from directly operating the units to focusing on service management and coordination.

“It was a major and important boost for Grupo RAME,” recalled Augusto Ramos, the company’s vice president.

The family spirit permeated the first years of operation. For a seven-year period, the company focused on serving the automotive sector with three-and-a-half-ton units that crossed into the United States and Canada , Ramos said.

On those routes, the company’s founder (his father), along with his mother, an uncle, and other operators, carried the loads directly, reflecting a 24/7 commitment that cemented RAME’s reputation, he explained.

Today, Grupo RAME has 185 units and three companies focused on federal public cargo transportation. Its specialty remains dry vans , which represent 80% of its operations, although it also offers flatbeds, curtainsiders, and lowboys .

Diversification has been key: around 35% of its activity remains in the automotive sector, while 60% is focused on imports and exports.

Ramos explained that, in addition to focusing on imports and exports , the company decided to strengthen its domestic market. “Returning to the domestic theme over the past two years has greatly helped us achieve strength and productivity,” he noted.

The group opened a transfer division in Laredo and Nuevo Laredo—border crossing service—as well as a “personnel transportation” area .

Additionally, its portfolio includes dry van management, warehouse and yard equipment rentals, and dedicated solutions for sectors requiring punctuality and constant monitoring.

The company also develops border crossings, transshipments, and direct integration schemes with client plants under the in-house model . These activities are complemented by 24/7 monitoring and door-to-door services, with the goal of ensuring continuity in the logistics chain , Ramos emphasized.

They also have vehicles ready to begin operations on the U.S. side, however, the project remains on hold while they wait for an economic recovery .

Regarding fleet renewal , 2024 was a year of caution, Ramos commented. Although the average age of vehicles is five years (an accepted standard in demanding sectors such as automotive and pharmaceutical), the company halted expansion and renewal investments to protect its finances.

“We know that we’ll weather this year of speculation without any problems, even with our clients,” Ramos explained.

These initiatives are accompanied by the incorporation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools that, far from replacing personnel, seek to support decision-making with more accurate information.

“We want our employees to feel at ease, to see technology as a support, not a threat,” he noted.

Beyond the numbers, the company’s essence remains tied to the values ​​that inspired its founding. The organizational culture maintains a sense of consistency: those who don’t share that vision eventually leave.

“Grupo RAME is one of the best companies in the sector for its commitment to quality, safety, and transparency, both with its employees and clients, and with the authority itself,” Ramos stated.

With family roots, an openness to innovation, and a well-thought-out diversification plan, RAME is preparing to face a challenging environment without losing sight of what has distinguished it since its inception: growth based on shared effort .

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The Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) , which allows us to know and monitor the evolution of the real sector of the economy in the short term, registered a monthly growth of 0.4% in November 2024, driven mainly by trade and services, according to what the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced this Friday ,

On an annual basis, the IGAE increased by 0.9% , according to seasonally adjusted figures, the agency added in a statement.

By component of said indicator, at a monthly rate, tertiary activities , which include services such as commerce, transportation and communications, education and health, had an increase of 0.5% in the reference period.

Secondary activities , which include manufacturing and construction, also showed a monthly increase of 0.1% . In contrast, primary activities , which include agriculture, mining and fishing, fell by 1.4% on a monthly basis .

On an annual basis, Inegi reported that tertiary activities increased by 2% and primary activities by 1.1 percent. Meanwhile, secondary activities fell by 0.9 percent.

Among the subsectors with the greatest dynamism in the period is retail trade , which grew 0.6% monthly and 4.7% annually , while transport , mail and storage increased 0.9% monthly and 4.4% annually . In turn, construction fell 1.8% monthly and 4.4% annually .

These figures come after inflation fell in the first half of 2025, reaching 3.69%annually, slightly below the forecast of the financial institution Ve por más , which was 3.74% and 3.72% of the consensus.

According to his analysis, year-on-year inflation eased again as some of the last pressures on agricultural goods dissipated. “The underlying inflation accelerated in three consecutive fortnights of increases, with the merchandise category showing an incipient reversal,” he stressed.

He noted that price growth was the lowest in five years for the first half of January, due to the decline in the non-core index, particularly in fresh foods. “The decline in tourism-related services was due to seasonal effects, due to the end of the holiday period,” he said.

According to IGAE figures, the growth in economic activity in November 2024 was due to various factors, including a slight recovery in domestic consumption , driven by the holiday season.

However, some subsectors such as construction continue to present challenges, largely due to the completion of some flagship projects of the previous federal administration.

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The main productive sectors of Mexico are experiencing a slowdown, which could significantly impact the demand for logistic and commercial services, as identified by a recent analysis by CIAL Dun & Bradstreet.

According to the analysis, the Mexican economy has shown signs of slowing down in the agricultural, industrial, and service sectors. During the first quarter of this year, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by just 1.9% annually, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2021, when the country was beginning to recover from the 2020 pandemic crisis.

The agricultural sector recorded a modest increase of 0.7% annually. Meanwhile, the industrial sector grew by only 1.5%, reflecting a stagnation in manufacturing for several consecutive quarters.

Additionally, construction has shown a significant slowdown after strong growth in the second half of last year. Meanwhile, the service sector, although it grew by 2.4%, has also seen a moderation in its expansion rate.

Analysts at CIAL Dun & Bradstreet expect Mexico’s GDP to grow by 2.1% this year, a slight downward revision from the previous estimate of 2.3 percent. Meanwhile, for 2025, a growth of 2.8 percent is projected.

Additionally, inflation in the first half of May reached 4.78% annually, in line with market expectations. However, while core inflation decreased to 4.31%, non-core prices continued to increase at a rate of 6.27% annually, suggesting further increases in the coming months. This inflationary behavior suggests that the Bank of Mexico will maintain its reference rate at the current 11.00% to contain inflation.

Meanwhile, the commercial sector has also begun to feel the effects of economic moderation. Wholesale sales have remained weak due to industrial stagnation in the United States and the poor performance of Mexican exports. Retail sales, on the other hand, saw modest growth of 0.6% annually in March, a significant deceleration compared to previous months. This slow growth could be linked, according to the analysis, to employment slowdown, high interest rates, and moderation in real wages.

In contrast, revenues from private non-financial services grew by 3.9% annually in March, aligning with the positive performance of the services GDP, which continues to outpace the industrial sector in terms of growth.

The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) estimated annual economic growth in Mexico of around 1.7% in April, following strong results in February and March. However, a moderation in growth is expected throughout the year, with a GDP projection of 2.2% for 2024 according to the Citibanamex survey.

The analysis by CIAL Dun & Bradstreet also shows that so far this year, financial markets have demonstrated positive evolution. The exchange rate has remained below 17 pesos per dollar, which could provide some economic stability in a context of global and local challenges.

The scenario of deceleration affecting all productive sectors poses significant challenges for the demand for logistic and commercial services, while inflation and high interest rates remain persistent concerns. However, growth expectations for 2025 offer a perspective of moderate recovery that could revitalize the country’s economy.

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