Mexico’s economic activity is expected to rebound both monthly and annually in February 2026, driven by growth in services such as trade, transportation, and storage.

The  Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) , compiled by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , anticipated a slight monthly increase of 0.1% in Mexican economic activity during the period. On an annual basis, the IOAE also registered strong performance, with a rise of 1.2%.

By economic activity groups, an annual increase of 1.9% is expected in the tertiary sector (which includes services such as commerce, transport and storage, communications, education and health), and a decrease of 1.9% in the secondary sector (manufacturing and construction).

The estimates include 95% confidence intervals and correspond to seasonally adjusted figures, Inegi indicated.

On a monthly basis, the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) is projected to grow by 0.1% . Tertiary activities are expected to increase by 0.2%, while secondary activities are projected to remain unchanged by February 2026.

According to KPMG , a consulting firm, Mexico is expected to have a mixed economic outlook , with opportunities in diversifying trade relationships, strengthening strategic logistics projects, and developing key industries such as manufacturing; however, a moderate slowdown with inflationary pressures is anticipated .

This stems from a global economy facing geopolitical risks and trade adjustments that create uncertainty for global growth.

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The  Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) , prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) , anticipated an annual increase of  0.2% in the Mexican economy in August 2025, driven by tertiary activities, which include services such as transportation and storage .

In its monthly measurement, this indicator also showed a positive figure, registering a 0.1% increase in the eighth month of the year.

Despite the uncertainty caused by the United States’ tariff policy, the slight annual and monthly increases in the IOAE signal moderate economic expansion in Mexico.

By economic activity group , a 2% annual decline is expected in secondary industries , which include manufacturing and construction.

In  tertiary activities , which include services such as trade, transportation and storage , communications, education and health, an  annual increase of 0.7% is estimated .

INEGI also anticipated a 0.1% increase in the Global Economic Activity Indicator (IGAE) and in tertiary activities on a monthly basis. Secondary activities are expected to remain unchanged for August of this year.

According to the agency’s figures, key sectors such as manufacturing and construction  are expected to experience a decline in the eighth month of 2025, marked by a decrease in external demand and the rise in the price of some inputs, in a complicated global economic context.

The IOAE is a statistical tool that allows for predicting the behavior of the IGAE, as well as secondary and tertiary activities, INEGI emphasized.

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