Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is seeking to promote private investment, on the one hand, but on the other, the possible continuation of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s agenda suggests otherwise, said Guillermo Ortiz , former Secretary of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) and former Governor of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) .

At the conference Global and National Economic Environment , he said that the reforms to the Judiciary and the disappearance of autonomous bodies have led to an “erosion” of the institutional framework, the consequences of which are only just beginning to be seen.

At the 2025 Economic Outlook Seminar of the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM) , Ortiz indicated that it is necessary to make an adjustment in fiscal matters, and noted that social spending represents more than 30% of the spending made by the government, which leads to a downgrade and an increase in country risk.

“We have an unsustainable fiscal situation, in the sense that this year we are making a fiscal squeeze of about two points of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by cutting expenses,” he said, before which he reiterated that we must look towards private investment and increase tax collection.

In relation to the United States, he said that the arrival of Donald Trumpcauses more uncertainty in Mexico, since the country will face the negotiations of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) , scheduled for 2026, weakened by these reforms.

“Trump version 2.0 is Trump one, but corrected and augmented,” and among his proposals he speaks of territorial expansion, the use of force, as well as annexing Greenland, he recalled.

Organized crime , specifically fentanyl , as well as the issue of migration and security , are among the issues that Trump will put on the table in foreign policy with Mexico, and in the negotiation of the T-MEC, in the event of the imposition of tariffs .

“This presents risks, but also opportunities for Mexico to the extent that we reach cooperation agreements on security, on containing the expansion of the cartels. Effective cooperation with the United States in this area will be beneficial for Mexico,” Ortiz stressed.

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El cargo Sheinbaum seeks to promote private investment, although she acts in the opposite way: specialist apareció primero en T21.

Ernesto Zedillo , former president of Mexico (1994-2000), proposed approving two transitional articles in the Constitution, which refer to the reform of the Judicial Branch , as well as the revocation of the mandate , promoted by Andrés Manuel López Obrador , to move towards a country in which democracy prevails and to stop what he considered “the destruction of norms and institutions.”

At the conference Challenges and dilemmas in the new geopolitics: Uncertainty and unprecedented risks , during a seminar on economic perspectives organized by the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM) , Ponce de León pointed out that the first article would be “to postpone the entry into force of what has been done since September, although it is not about eliminating it.”

“It would be a matter of opening up a space for deliberation, for analysis, to confirm or not that these reforms are in response to good objectives and not to the objective of building a tyranny in our country and destroying the already precarious rule of law that we have,” he said.

The other transitional article would be to nullify, to annul from the Constitution, the so-called revocation of mandate. “It is a cyanide pill that has been left in the Constitution, which has no justification in a presidential regime in which it still exists and I believe that it should exist in our country,” he stressed.

He said that what Mexicans need is a president who governs a country with democratic rules with great authority and power . “That is what we Mexicans need, we do not need a country that is a one-party autocracy, where the real and immense power is exercised by a leader installed hidden in the office attached to the Presidency of the Republic .

She also rejected what President Claudia Sheinbaum said a few days ago about Mexico being perhaps the most democratic country in the world.

“Mexico is not the most democratic country in the world now, but that is its aspiration and it is an aspiration that we Mexicans would support with great enthusiasm,” he said, adding that a country that does not have national unity will not be able to defend its sovereignty or its legitimate interests against the “reactionary forces that threaten to return to the world.”

The professor of Economics, Political Science and Environmental Studies at Yale University also considered that Mexico is facing an unfavorable panorama, since public security is being militarized , with a view to having a police state , in addition to destroying the professionalization of the Judicial Branch, to which is added the cancellation of the right of access to information with the disappearance of the National Institute of Transparency, Access to Information and Protection of Personal Data (INAI) .

The reforms of the late 20th century, with the participation of all political parties, corrected the historical anomalies of the autocracy. “All of that has been destroyed in recent months and a judicial counter-reform has been approved that destroys the professionalism and independence of the judiciary,” he said.

Ernesto Zedillo said that he is concerned that in just a few months, Mexico seems to have lost the category of being a democratic country , and he maintained that since September our country has become an autocracy of a dominant party like Morena.

He pointed out that when there are no fair rules or institutions in the country to ensure the application of the norms for carrying out a correct electoral competition and there is no independent judiciary, there can be no democracy.

He said that 2025 is a difficult year to talk about economic prospects “because we are seeing the creation of practically a perfect storm that could lead to the breakdown of the international order, which, with many flaws, has certainly sparked World War III.”

He said there is also uncertainty regarding the rhetoric that the president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump, has made against Mexico, such as the imposition of tariffs.

“We know that perhaps nothing will happen, it’s all a matter of threats and rhetoric, but I think we have grounds for serious concern, not only in Mexico, but in all of Latin America and all countries in the world,” he explained.

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El cargo Zedillo: Democracy Must Prevail Over Institutional Destruction in Mexico apareció primero en T21.

The high-level meeting of President Claudia Sheinbaum with businessmen and officials from the United States within the framework of the US-Mexico CEO Dialogue was positive, as it sends a message that the government remains interested in promoting foreign and private investment in the country , although there is some interference with some political sectors, said Luis Burgueño , partner at the Von Wobeser y Sierra law firm , who also pointed out other factors such as the trade relationship with the northern neighbor.

In an interview with T21 , the specialist indicated that in general terms there is no anti-business policy on the part of the new federal administration , and recalled that, throughout the previous six-year term, despite the fact that former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) had certain types of inclinations “in fact, we know that he ratified or, well, renegotiated the free trade agreement and maintained a positive or open attitude towards private investment.”

In this sense, the Sheinbaum government seeks to have a more active participation, specifically in the energy sector and others, such as the railways and the private sector .

“Our country continues to be one that promotes foreign investment and promotes the integration of Mexico into North America. Mexico, let’s say, has not flirted with joining the BRICS, for example, in the countries aligned with Brazil, Russia, India and China.”

Although there is a good relationship with these nations, the specialist pointed out that the Mexican government’s commitment continues to be towards North American integration . “Of course, there are certain elements that continue to contradict this discourse and are those that still do not generate confidence in the (business) sector,” he said.

One of the issues that has generated uncertainty among Mexican and foreign investors is the reform of the Judiciary, which was also addressed in last week’s high-level dialogue, and about which Claudia Sheinbaum assured that “it is not a problem for investments,” since it seeks to strengthen the rule of law and free this power from corruption.

In this context, Luis Burgueño said that beyond what has already been approved in the permanent Constituent Congress as a constitutional reform, what is being seen is the way in which it is being implemented in practice. “The determining element will be the quality of the judges and the independence of the judges ,” he explained.

He said that other issues to provide certainty to investors have to do with infrastructure, energy, water, and he highlighted the dialogue between Mexico and the United States because “it reflects the true pro-business position of the government, but we still need to see the rest of the government’s actions in these matters . ”

He stressed that it is important to create a climate of trust so that investments continue to come to Mexico and it can compete with other countries that are also trying to attract investment.

“The important thing here is that we are not alone; it is not like we are the only country in the world that is trying to take advantage of the situation with nearshoring (relocation of companies to Mexico), there are many other countries in Latin America and other parts of Asia,” he said, adding that as we improve in these areas, our position as a hub for attracting foreign investment and promoting national investment will improve.

He recalled that judicial reform is important because national investment does not enjoy the protections granted, for example, by reciprocal investment protection treaties such as the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) , which, in the event of an expropriatory or “unfair” measure, can ultimately resort to investment arbitration against the Mexican State.

The partner of the firm Von Wobeser y Sierra indicated that Mexican businessmen do not have that possibility. “A Mexican investor’s last resort is the Federal Judiciary, so, to encourage Mexican investment it is also essential to create that climate of legal security ,” he stressed.

As part of the results of the US-Mexico CEO Dialogue, President Claudia Sheinbaum announced at least four major investments for Mexico totaling more than $20 billion .

On this subject, Burgueño considered that companies, including Amazon and Royal Caribbean , analyzed the legal, economic and political environment of the country before deciding to invest in Mexico.

He explained that even though there is an environment of legal uncertainty, some investments will always continue to arrive, since there are companies that have different “risk appetites” and there are others that also have many possibilities to diversify their investments .

In the social sense, Burgueño said that it is too early to know how this new administration will behave and it will be necessary to see the relationship with the different social actors beyond the political parties and the opposition.

“She must listen to other voices, incorporate other points of view, make citizens see that the 46% who did not vote for her or who in fact voted against her are also being represented and are, let’s say, in the president’s mind as someone who also deserves attention and who deserves to have their interests duly represented by the government,” he said.

Sheinbaum’s relationship with the next president of the United States

Regarding the relationship that Claudia Sheinbaum will have with the next president of the United States in various areas, Luis Burgueño said that in economic terms the relations should be good because there is an interdependence between the two countries .

“It is a reality that due to the way the world is being configured geopolitically, regional integration becomes a necessity. The United States government, with the confrontation or competition it has with China, with all the complicated situations in Europe, due to the war with Ukraine, in the Middle East, due to the various wars it is fighting, cannot afford to seek an additional conflict with its neighbor in the region,” he said.

He said that North America is currently the most prosperous region in the world , mainly due to the United States economy, which is experiencing growth and great development. “In that sense, it seems that common sense prevails economically.”

Beyond the rhetoric of the presidential candidates of our northern neighbor, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump , and the review of the T-MEC in 2026, which will generate some friction, certainty will prevail, since “it suits the three countries, and I dare say that it suits the world,” said the specialist.

“Regardless of who wins the presidency, I believe that at least in the economic and business systems in common sense, it indicates that the interests of the three countries, Mexico, the United States and Canada, are sufficiently aligned so that the negotiation of the free trade agreement, however difficult it may be, can be resolved favorably.”

Burgueño pointed out that the main threat is Trump’s anti-immigrant policy , if he is elected president, because, although the promise of deporting 12 million illegal immigrants is very difficult, deporting 500 thousand or a million would bring serious consequences both economically and humanly.

Regarding nearshoring , Burgueño considered that, if Mexico adopts the necessary policies and provides the appropriate legal security environment, the relocation of production lines could transform the Mexican economy over the next five to 10 years , although certainties must be provided on some issues such as security, water supply, electricity supply and qualified labor.

The trade relationship between Mexico and the United States is very important in the regional context, since according to the  Ministry of Economy , as of the second quarter of 2024,  the northern neighbor remains the main investment partner in the country , concentrating 44% of total flows, totaling  13,717 million dollars .

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El cargo What was the purpose of the US-Mexico CEO Dialogue? apareció primero en T21.

PLAYA DEL CARMEN, Q. ROO.- The changes planned in the reform of the Judicial Branch in Mexico would have direct consequences for the logistics sector , according to a specialist in the field.

Last Wednesday, the Chamber of Deputies, which has a qualified legislative majority of Morena, the party of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, approved the project from the federal Executive that proposes the election by popular vote of ministers, magistrates and judges , the reduction of the Supreme Court, the creation of a judicial administration body and a Disciplinary Court.

The bill, which has sparked criticism and protests across the country, will now be sent to the Senate for discussion and approval.

These proposed changes for the Judiciary that occur at the twilight of López Obrador’s six-year term “are a latent risk for logistics,” said Héctor Romero, president of Círculo Logístico , who is also a representative of various business organizations such as the Employers’ Confederation of the Mexican Republic (Coparmex) and the Confederation of National Chambers of Commerce, Services and Tourism of the United Mexican States (Concanaco-Servytur) .

The specialist in security issues in the logistics and transportation field also said that the fact that anyone can be elected to occupy a position in the Judicial Branch is comparable to the situation that has been experienced during the López Obrador administration, in which personnel from the Navy and the Army have previously occupied public positions, both in customs and in port and airport administrations, where inexperience has translated into complications for the transportation of goods in the country.

“It is a risk, it is an irresponsibility that the current Executive is popularly betting on (…) there will be many interests involved,” said Romero, present at the 2024 edition of Top Flotillas and LOGEX , two events that have brought together executives from supplier and purchasing companies in this Caribbean resort around logistics and transportation management.

Meanwhile, according to statements made to the EFE agency by Larry Rubin, president of the American Society of Mexico (Amsoc) , American companies in Mexico have halted their investment announcements in view of the possible implications of the reform to the Judicial Branch.

In an attempt to put pressure on legislators, the justices of the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation (SCJN) have decided to stop work until September 9.

In response to a question from T21, Héctor Romero explained that at present, judicial processes are “slow and bureaucratic” in the follow-up of his complaints in the theft of goods transported on the country’s roads or also in the case of the theft of vehicles, so the possible arrival of inexperienced personnel would aggravate this situation that afflicts the logistics and transport sector.

“We have to add, we cannot divide, and this (federal) government, I say this with the greatest respect, divided,” he said.

Héctor Romero is confident in the appointments that have been announced for the next cabinet of Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo , president-elect, who will be tasked with protecting the Mexican logistics and transportation sector that has been forgotten during López Obrador’s six-year term.

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El cargo Logistics at Risk Due to Reform of the Judiciary apareció primero en T21.