The Mexican economy registered a  contraction in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), representing its first decline so far this year , marked by a decrease in industrial activities, according to data published this Friday by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

In the July-September period of this year, and with seasonally adjusted figures, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 0.3% on a quarterly basis , according to information from the agency.

In its annual measurement, Mexico’s GDP also had negative figures, falling 0.2% in real terms.

During the reference period, the GDP of  primary activities , which include agriculture, mining and fishing,  grew 3.5% quarterly .

Meanwhile, the  secondary sector , which includes manufacturing and construction, declined  by 1.5%  quarter-on-quarter. The  tertiary sector , which includes services such as commerce, transportation, and communications, saw a quarterly increase of 0.2%.

On an annual basis, the GDP of primary activities increased by 2.9%, that of secondary activities decreased by 2.7%, and that of tertiary activities advanced by 1 percent.

In the first nine months of 2025, GDP advanced 0.4% compared to the same period in 2024.

According to Inegi, the transport, postal and storage sector registered a positive variation in GDP , with an increase of 0.2% in Q3 2025.

“The Quarterly Gross Domestic Product offers, in the short term, a timely, complete and coherent view of the evolution of the country’s economic activities,” Inegi pointed out.

The drop in GDP in the third quarter of the year is in line with the  Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT) , published on October 30 by Inegi, which projected a drop in the Mexican economy of 0.3% both quarterly and annually.

According to analysts, the uncertainty generated by the United States tariffs offers a low expectation of growth for the Mexican economy for the remainder of the year, which could extend into the beginning of 2026.

However, although the Mexican government anticipates favorable results by the end of this year, the possibility of a recession is once again generating concern among specialists, who see a fragile economic environment in the country, aggravated by external factors such as the global trade reconfiguration.

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