Amid global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and internal pressures, analyst Mauricio Candiani warned that 2026 will be a year of “crosswinds” for companies in Mexico, where the key will not be waiting for certainty, but making strategic decisions with pragmatism.

During his presentation at the ANERPV Forum , Candiani used a metaphor comparing the current economy to a turbulent flight. While some react nervously to any jolt, more experienced organizations understand that these episodes are inevitable and operate with clear protocols.

“This is how things are this year; there are slight movements and stronger ones that directly impact the dynamics of businesses, regardless of the sector,” he explained.

One of the main challenges, he pointed out, is the low economic growth . Mexico is advancing at a  “baby step” pace, insufficient in the face of key variables such as population growth or the level of public debt.

According to Candiani, the country should grow above both indicators to guarantee long-term stability, something that is not currently happening. This is compounded by a still-high fiscal deficit and a growing debt, which, while not critical, does show a worrying trend.

“The problem is not the size of the debt, it is the trajectory,” he warned.

On the monetary front, he highlighted that the reduction in interest rates represents an opportunity for investment, although he stressed that its impact goes beyond credit: it also directly affects the viability of new projects.

Regarding inflation , the specialist pointed out that it does not represent a serious macroeconomic risk at the moment, as it remains within manageable ranges for the economy.

One of the most critical points of his analysis was the global energy environment, which he described as a “shock” driven more by expectations than by physical scarcity.

In this context, he warned about Mexico’s high dependence on natural gas imported from the United States, which could become a structural risk in the event of supply disruptions.

However, it also identified opportunities, particularly in the development of unconventional gas in the north of the country, driven by changes in energy policy.

“The restriction is not the price, it is the capacity,” he emphasized.

Nearshoring and unequal opportunities

Candiani acknowledged that regionalization and trade with the United States remain key drivers for Mexico, especially within the context of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) . However, he cautioned that the benefits are not distributed evenly.

While some regions and industries are growing rapidly due to the relocation of production chains, others are facing lags or even contractions.

“The world is in constant arbitrage of inputs, and Mexico is well positioned to take advantage of it,” he noted.

Another area of ​​concern is the judicial system . Candiani warned about a transition process that could generate greater uncertainty in dispute resolution, forcing companies to rethink their legal and compliance strategies.

He even warned about the strengthening of regulatory powers that allow accounts to be frozen based on presumptions, which increases operational risks .

Beyond the diagnosis, Candiani’s central message was that companies must adjust their decision-making to a reality where government support is limited.

“We have to ask the government as if it could do everything, but in the boardrooms we have to make decisions as if it weren’t doing anything,” he said.

In this regard, he called for maintaining financial discipline, avoiding overleverage, and strengthening the capacity to adapt to changing scenarios.

Despite the challenges, the specialist concluded with a moderately optimistic outlook. He asserted that Mexico maintains significant competitive advantages , especially in sectors related to exports, logistics, and technology.

“The country is in the right postal code ,” he said, noting that opportunities exist, but depend on companies’ ability to read the environment, adjust their strategies, and execute with discipline.

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With an investment of more than five million dollars, Bulkmatic de México inaugurated a new high-speed packaging line at its distribution center (CEDI) in Tlalnepantla , strengthening its operational capacity and increasing the competitiveness of its customers in the market.

The new ASSAC U20 baler , unique in its kind in America, allows a significant increase in baling speed, so together with the existing lines, the distribution center exceeds three thousand bags per hour, reducing material preparation times from up to nine days to less than three.

“This capability translates into a direct advantage for customers, who can now respond more quickly to demand, place available product on the market and close business opportunities more efficiently,” according to a company statement.

In addition to its speed, the line incorporates advanced quality control systems, including metal detection, automatic weight control and real-time monitoring, ensuring consistency in every delivery and continuity in operation.

“This combination of technology, precision, and responsiveness strengthens the reliability of the logistics service and allows customers to scale their operations with greater certainty,” he commented.

He noted that the Tlalnepantla distribution center occupies a strategic position in the Valley of Mexico , connecting key rail flows with the country’s main industrial centers.

From this location, Bulkmatic promotes the integration of production chains that connect Mexico with the United States and Canada, facilitating the efficient movement of raw materials that are transformed into high-value products for industry and consumption.

He emphasized that the investment allocated to this project is part of a growth plan exceeding $600 million over the next few years , aimed at expanding its infrastructure, strengthening its logistical capacity, and supporting the growth of its clients throughout the region.

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El cargo Bulkmatic de México strengthens its capacity in Tlalnepantla; invests $5 million apareció primero en T21.

Mexico must focus on making its internal forces more competitive, rather than as a political reaction, as a fundamental national strategy, the business organization emphasized in a statement. It also noted that the country’s defense “cannot be limited to resistance.”

“At Concanaco-Servytur, we believe that domestic consumption—when done consciously—is an act of care, sharing, and commitment. Mexico has a soul in its communities, and every purchase is a way of sowing a future in the neighborhood, the market, and the street where we grew up,” he emphasized.

In this regard, he proposed promoting local consumption, reactivating regional and national tourism, digitizing commerce and services, boosting strategic areas in intermediate cities, and incentivizing value chains with a territorial impact .

The agency considered Trump’s announced measure, scheduled to take effect on August 1, to be “useless, expensive, and counterproductive.” “Imposing tariffs on Mexico would be like putting air conditioning on a broken window.” Furthermore, the potential imposition of such a tax, it emphasized, puts millions of jobs at risk on both sides of the border.

“Mexico and the United States must build solutions, not barriers,” the organization concluded.

There is a bilateral working table: Sheinbaum

In response to Trump’s threat to impose a 30% tariff on Mexican products due to a lack of security results, Sheinbaum asserted that Mexico is doing its partand called on the United States to do its part to combat arms trafficking.

“We’re doing our part; they have to do theirs too. We’ve insisted on controlling the flow of weapons from the United States to Mexico, on arresting people involved in drug trafficking in the United States, and on the United States’ share of the responsibility,” Sheinbaum said at her morning press conference this Monday.

He recalled that there is a bilateral working group and that the goal is to reach an agreement that benefits both countries.

On July 12, Trump published a letter on his Truth Social account detailing the imposition of 30% tariffs on Mexico and accusing the Sheinbaum administration of not doing enough to stop fentanyl trafficking to the United States.

The letter added that if Mexico is successful in combating the cartels and stemming the flow of fentanyl, it would consider adjusting the tariffs , and also warned that additional tariffs would be imposed if Mexico responds with new tariffs on its northern neighbor’s products.

Trump also pointed to, among other factors, the United States’ trade deficit with Mexico, asserting that it is “a major threat to our economy and even to our national security.”

If implemented, the new rate would be added to the tariffs applied by the United States to vehicles and auto parts, steel and aluminum, and the recent 17.09% tariff on Mexican tomatoes that went into effect this Monday, after the United States Department of Commerce announced its withdrawal and termination of the 2019 agreement suspending the antidumping investigation into this fruit from Mexico.

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El cargo Concanaco-Servytur calls for strengthening the domestic market in the face of Trump’s new tariff threat. apareció primero en T21.