“I expected the increase to be phased in over two periods, but they raised it all at once by 10% in the first half of the year, and I told my operator, ‘You can’t raise it again in the second half of the year, I just can’t take it anymore.’” The voice of a transportation user encapsulates a pressure that has ceased to be exceptional and has become a constant: the direct impact of geopolitics on logistics costs and business operations in Mexico.

What until a few years ago was perceived as distant conflicts —particularly in regions like the Middle East— now has concrete effects on the cost structure of supply chains .

Geographical distance is no longer a buffer; in an interconnected environment, any tension translates into immediate adjustments in prices, routes and availability of inputs.

In this new global landscape, geopolitical conflicts have ceased to be isolated events and have become catalysts for economic transformations . As Sergio Hernández, president and CEO of CIAL Dun & Bradstreet in Mexico, warns, “geopolitical conflicts are generating greater fragmentation of global trade and a regionalization of supply chains.”

One of the most immediate transmission channels is the energy market. The rise in oil prices—driven by international tensions, according to the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) —has a dual effect for Mexico: it increases oil revenues, but at the same time raises the cost of containing gasoline prices through tax incentives.

In scenarios like the current one, that benefit can be diluted, as already happened in 2022 with the subsidy to the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS).

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With this result in the fourth month of the year, the INPC registered an increase for the third consecutive month at an annual rate and reached its highest annual level since December of last year.

In the reference period, the National Consumer Price Index reported a monthly increase of 0.33% , while the underlying price index , which excludes goods and services with more volatile prices or that do not respond to market conditions, increased  0.49%  on a monthly basis, with an increase in the price of merchandise of  0.69%  and of services  of 0.30 percent .

On a monthly basis, the  non-core price index  fell  0.21 percent . Domestically, prices for agricultural products rose 1.60 percent  , and those for energy and government-authorized tariffs fell  1.59 percent .

According to Inegi, among the products that registered increases in the period were tomatoes with 22.08% , avocados with 10.90% , beef with 2.10% , and detergents with 1.88 percent .

Meanwhile, the products that showed a decrease in their price in April 2025 were electricity with 12.16% , onion with 11.25% , banana with 4.99% , egg with 2.50 % and pork with 1.34 percent .

The Inegi indicated that the federal entities with the greatest increases in the INPC are Morelos and Aguascalientes, each with 0.89% , Sinaloa with 0.84% ​​and San Luis Potosí with 0.75 percent .

In turn, Tabasco, Yucatán, Coahuila and Campeche showed variations below the national average, with decreases of  1.56%, 0.63%, 0.55% and 0.46% , respectively.

Although inflation in the fourth month of 2025 was higher than expected by experts, it remains below the level recorded in the same period in 2024, when it stood at 4.65% annual rate.

According to CIAL Dun & Bradstreet , the Mexican economy is facing a complex situation, characterized by stagnant productive activity and a slowdown in employment.

Given this context and in an environment where inflation is not easing, the company specializing in data solutions and analysis estimated that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) could reduce its interest rate to 8.50% , with a closing projection of 7.75% by 2025.

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Inflation continues to dominate Mexico’s economic agenda, directly impacting families’ pockets. In November, prices for essential goods and services such as electricity and food registered significant increases, reflecting the country’s economic conditions and the evolution of government subsidies. 

The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported that, in November 2024, the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) increased by 0.44% compared to the previous month , placing the annual general inflation at 4.55 percent . This figure represents a slight increase compared to the same month in 2023, when inflation was 4.32 percent. 

For its part, the non-core price index showed a monthly increase of 1.73% , with a significant rise in the prices of agricultural products (0.62%) and energy (2.64%), the latter attributed to the end of the summer electricity rate subsidy in 11 cities in the country, including Mexicali, Hermosillo and Culiacán. 

On the other hand, core inflation , which excludes goods and services with more volatile prices, showed a modest monthly increase of 0.05%, driven mainly by services (0.35%), while merchandise prices decreased by 0.27 percent. 

Among the products with the greatest upward impact, electricity stood out , with an increase of 22.27%, followed by onions and papaya , with increases of 22.32% and 22.53% respectively.

In contrast, products such as lemon and zucchini showed significant price decreases of 23.46% and 11.07%, respectively. 

In regional terms, the entities with the greatest increases in the INPC were Sonora (3.38%) and Sinaloa (3.08%), while Quintana Roo and Aguascalientes showed variations below the national average. 

Inegi stressed that inflation directly affects the purchasing power of Mexican households, especially in sensitive sectors such as food, housing and energy .

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