The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting energy markets and global supply chains , the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warned .

According to an analysis by the international organization, the Strait of Hormuz is a vital passage for world trade, and the overall global economic impact will depend on the duration of the constant attacks, attributed to Iran’s offensive within the framework of the conflict it faces with the United States-Israeli axis.

“These events raise concerns about global trade and development prospects. Oil markets have reacted quickly, with Brent crude prices already exceeding $90 per barrel, a 27% increase,” the UNCTAD study stated.

He noted that rising costs for energy, fertilizers and transportation —including freight rates, ship fuel prices and insurance premiums—could lead to higher food prices and “intensify pressures on the cost of living, especially for the most vulnerable.”

UNCTAD estimated that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately a quarter (25%) of the world’s maritime oil trade passes, has virtually stopped, registering a drastic 97% drop in daily transits.

According to the analysis, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are jeopardizing energy supplies , particularly to Asia. As a result, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices have risen by 74 percent.

In maritime transport , freight costs for tankers have risen by up to 72%, while the price of marine fuel has doubled. Risk premiums for vessels operating in the area have increased by 300%, quadrupling insurance costs per voyage in some cases, adding to the overall cost of shipping.

The implications go beyond energy. The report highlighted that 38% of LNG and a third (33%) of the world’s maritime fertilizer trade depend on this route.

The lack of access to these supplies threatens to drive up food prices globally again, repeating patterns seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and the start of the conflict in Ukraine.

The impact is especially severe for developing nations, which rely heavily on imports from the Persian Gulf region. Countries such as Sudan, which imported 54% of its fertilizers in 2024, Australia (32%), Sri Lanka (36%), and Tanzania (31%) are among those most vulnerable to shortages of agricultural inputs.

Furthermore, the increase in bond yields in countries of the region, such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, reflects an increase in borrowing costs that exacerbates the economic pressure on public finances.

UNCTAD calls for de-escalation

Given this scenario, UNCTAD stressed the urgent need to de-escalate tensions and safeguard civilian infrastructure and freedom of navigation. The vulnerability of maritime traffic hotspots underscores the fragility of a highly interconnected global trading system, where a blockade like the one in the Strait of Hormuz can jeopardize sustainable development and social stability worldwide.

“To reduce risks to global trade and development, including environmental risks, it is necessary to de-escalate the situation and safeguard shipping, ports, seafarers and other civilian infrastructure, while maintaining safe trade corridors in accordance with international law and freedom of navigation,” he stressed.

The current situation in the Strait of Hormuz comes at a time when several developing economies are struggling to pay their debt, facing a constriction of fiscal space, and have a limited capacity to absorb further increases in input and output prices.

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