Geopolitical tensions, changes in supply chains, and increasing pressure from fragmentation in the world, among other factors, could cause a slowdown in global trade during 2026 , which will affect developing economies the most, projected the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) .

According to the latest World Trade Update (January 2026) , the United Nations agency highlighted the trends that will prevail in the global exchange of goods this year.

In that regard, he estimated that global economic and trade  growth  will remain moderate, at around 2.6% in 2026 , while growth in developing economies, excluding China, will slow to around 4.2%. This will hit developing countries hard, which will be constrained by the slowdown in infrastructure investment and industrialization. “Stronger regional trade and diversification will be crucial to building resilience.”

“Preserving special and differential treatment remains fundamental to boosting industrialization and food security. Decisions on agriculture, digital trade, and climate-related measures will determine whether global rules support development,” he emphasized.

The analysis revealed that increased protectionism can generate more political uncertainty . Global tariffs increased in 2025, driven primarily by measures implemented by the United States, with the manufacturing sector being the most affected. Governments are expected to continue using tariffs in 2026 to achieve industrial and strategic objectives . The report noted that smaller and less diversified economies will be the most exposed to rising costs and trade volatility.

Another trend identified by UNCTAD is that almost two-thirds of global trade takes place in value chains that are being transformed by geopolitical tensions , industrial policy, and new technologies. Companies are diversifying their suppliers and relocating production closer to key markets to reduce risk.

“Countries with strong infrastructure, skills, and stable policies are better positioned to attract investment. More peripheral economies risk being left behind unless they improve logistics, skills, and the investment climate,” he explained.

He also noted that service exports currently represent 27% of world trade and grew by around 9% in 2025 , surpassing goods exports, with digital services largely driving this increase.

The analysis highlighted an increase in South-South trade, where developing countries are driving the growth of global exports.

“South-South merchandise exports increased from around $0.5 trillion in 1995 to $6.8 trillion in 2025. Today, 57% of developing countries’ exports go to other developing markets, led by Asia’s regional value chains,” he stressed.

He highlighted that Africa and Latin America are also strengthening South-South ties. “Deeper intraregional trade can help offset lower demand in advanced economies and boost resilience.”

Another trend is that environmental commitments are increasingly influencing trade as climate pledges move from ambition to implementation . “By the end of 2025, pledges from 113 countries could reduce emissions by approximately 12% by 2035.”

It also identified that oversupply of critical minerals and geopolitics can destabilize global trade and value chains, and stressed that agricultural trade will remain fundamental to food security.

Finally, he noted that trade regulations have tightened, and that national policies are reshaping global trade. “Since 2020, around 18,000 new discriminatory trade measures have been introduced. Technical regulations currently affect approximately two-thirds of global trade.”

2025 was marked by trade and geopolitical tensions that, according to analysts, will continue this year, which will continue to impact global trade, especially due to the United States’ tariff measures.

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El cargo Protectionist policies could trigger a slowdown in global trade by 2026: UNCTAD apareció primero en T21.

At the close of the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), the Transport and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL), developed by T21 Business Intelligence (T21 BI) , identified that this indicator had seen five consecutive quarters of decline ; it should be noted that this exercise has been conducted since the first quarter of 2018 (1Q18).

The ICTYL, which surveys more than 140 transportation and logistics business owners and managers , who are already users of these services, reveals the pace of their businesses during the quarter that just ended, as well as the outlook for the current quarter, and the main factors that may affect their companies.

In Q3 2025, the ICTYL index stood at 73.7 points (Q1 18 = 100), down from 78.6 points in the previous quarter (Q2 2025). The business confidence monitor stood at -9.40 during the period analyzed, returning to negative territory after 22 quarters. In this case, values ​​above “0” signal optimism.

Based on the T21 BI exercise, in 3Q25, 69% of respondents identified the pace as unfavorable for the period . And regarding the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25), the year-end, 61.2% of respondents anticipated it to be favorable.

Regarding revenue, 44.8% of ICTYL participants considered that this component decreased during 3Q25 , while 17.2% stated that it “did not grow or remained stable.”

In contrast, 13.8% responded that their business “grew between 5% and 10%,” while 10.3% “grew between 10% and 15%.”

When reviewing factors that could be considered a threat to the pace of business, 18.26% of ICTYL survey participants considered “political uncertainty” to be the most significant risk, surpassing “public insecurity” at 13.91%.

Regarding the current situation, regarding the impact of the United States government’s tariff policies and the effect on the pace of business, 41% of respondents identified it as high , which, among other factors, has motivated them to rethink routes, change cost structures, investments, or trade relations.

The Manufacturing Industries Business Confidence Index (ICE) , conducted by the National Institute of Geography and Statistics (INEGI) , stood at 49.7 points last September , 0.3 points higher than the previous month. “With this figure, the indicator is below the 50-point threshold for the seventh consecutive month. The monthly performance of the indicator resulted in increases in three of its five components, one remained stable, and the other fell,” the agency’s statement detailed

The “right time to invest” category stood at 37.8 points , 0.5 points higher than in August. The “current economic situation of the country” category reached 49.5 points, a change of just 0.1 points compared to the previous month.

The “current economic situation of the company” fell into negative territory , reaching 51.0 points, a decrease of 0.2 points compared to the previous month.

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El cargo Another setback; confidence in transport and logistics plummets again: ICTYL apareció primero en T21.