According to the Mexican Online Sales Association (AMVO) , El Buen Fin 2025 could exceed 200 billion pesos (mdp) in sales , which would mean a 16% increase compared to the 2024 edition.

Considering the above and that e-commerce represents 25% of current sales, it is important to understand the patterns that organized crime uses to commit crimes such as cargo theft , and which merchandise they target during peak seasons such as El Buen Fin, which will celebrate its 15th anniversary this year and will take place from November 13 to 17.

Luis Villatoro, director of Supply Chain Security & Intelligence Latam at Overhaul , recalled that, according to the Confederation of National Chambers of Commerce, Services and Tourism (Concanaco Servytur) , during El Buen Fin 2024 the most purchased products were electronic devices with 79.4%, clothing and footwear with 15.9%, and white goods and appliances with 4.7 percent .

In the webinar Cargo Thefts in El Buen Fin: What You Need to Know , conducted by Overhaul, Villatoro emphasized the importance of understanding this consumption pattern, since practically 80% of sales were of appliances and electronics, which consequently become a target for criminal groups.

The specialist stated that during November, as a result of El Buen Fin sales, the movement of goods across the country increased by between 20% and 30%.

“Over the past three years, Overhaul’s trend analysis shows that during the El Buen Fin weekend, cargo theft activity in Mexico decreases by 28% and subsequently increases by up to 36%,” he emphasized.

During November, cargo theft in the country increased by 7.6% compared to the monthly trend. Some of the most affected hot products, which could present seasonal increases in cargo theft, are electronics, such as screens, video game consoles, and cell phones , which have an increased risk of up to 38%. “That is, there is a traditional trend regarding the participation of theft in this type of sector,” Villatoro noted.

Appliances are another type of merchandise with increases of up to 29%, clothing and footwear with growth of up to 15%, and auto parts, specifically tires and wheels, with an increase of up to 8 percent.

According to the analysis, delivery van theft is estimated to increase by 19% nationwide in November , driven by the use of these types of vehicles to supply department stores and shopping centers, as well as for last-mile deliveries.

Regarding spatial patterns during this peak season , the states that have historically had the highest incidence of cargo theft with potential increases are, with 31% representative nationwide, the State of Mexico with a risk of increase of 3%.

Also, Puebla with increases of up to 6%, San Luis Potosí with 12%, Jalisco with 8% and Tlaxcala with an increase of up to 9 percent.

Meanwhile, it is estimated that the highways that will likely show the greatest risk are Mexico City-Veracruz with 14%, Mexico City-Saltillo with 11%, Mexico City-Pachuca with 7%, Arco Norte with 6%, Circuito Exterior Mexiquense with 4%, Avenida Jesús Reyes Heroles with 3%, and Atlacomulco-Zapotlanejo with 2%.

Regarding time patterns during El Buen Fin, Villatoro explained that 73% of robberies are projected to occur between Tuesday and Friday , while the most vulnerable times would be between 4:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m. with 27% of the incidence, as well as between 7:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. with 25 percent.

Meanwhile, delivery van thefts are likely to increase by 17% during the last quarter of 2025, according to an analysis of trends over the past three years, due to the increase in merchandise movement due to El Buen Fin 2025 and the Christmas celebrations.

It is expected that 49% of delivery van thefts will occur in the metropolitan areas of the States of Mexico, Jalisco, and Puebla , with the main sectors affected being packaging, household appliances, clothing, and footwear, among others.

Among the measures to reduce cargo theft, Luis Villatoro believes it is necessary to establish a program and identify which layer of electronic and physical security is most appropriate based on the value matrix.

“There are units where you can operate with 30 million pesos if you decide to add the highest levels of electronic security. You can install five GPS devices, a Bluetooth belt, perhaps two or three radio frequency devices, and you also have telematics video within the units, based on the contracts you have established with the service providers,” he emphasized.

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From January 6 to 13, 2026, American Airlines will have more trips to Mexico, operating more than 880 weekly flights during the winter peak season , which would mean an increase of more than 10% in its local operations, and more than 13% in its seat capacity.

The service expansion includes routes from Dallas-Fort Worth to Morelia, Oaxaca, and Durango; from Phoenix to Zihuatanejo ; and a recently announced seasonal route expansion from Chicago to Querétaro, which was previously scheduled to end on January 5, 2026.

“With this additional service, families and friends will have even more opportunities to reunite with their loved ones during these special holidays,” said José María Giraldo, the airline’s general manager of operations in Mexico, Canada, the Caribbean, and Central America.

Likewise, in the coming months, American Airlines will continue to strengthen its presence in Mexico with the launch, on December 3, of its 30th destination in the country, in Puerto Escondido, Oaxaca, as well as two new routes to Chicago , including year-round flights from Mexico City, beginning October 26, and daily seasonal trips from Querétaro, beginning December 18.

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The Hot Sale concluded its 2025 edition with a historic sales record of 42,725 million pesos (mdp) , which represented a growth of 23.7% compared to the previous year, as announced by the Mexican Online Sales Association (AMVO).

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In this context, the quality of operational data became one of the greatest challenges, even above the available technology.

During the 2024 Hot Sale, online sales in Mexico exceeded 34.5 billion pesos (mdp) , an increase of 15.3% compared to the previous year , with more than 14.4 million orders processed , according to data from the Mexican Online Sales Association (AMVO).

Up to 60% of the event’s total sales were made online , putting enormous pressure on delivery systems, especially considering that 94% of shoppers preferred home delivery .

For Jorge Jiménez, CEO of Conectamos, a Mexican startup specializing in logistics operational intelligence, the problem is not only one of capacity, but also of visibility and data fragmentation .

“Logistics is a highly reactive industry. Today, the big problem isn’t a lack of technology, but rather the failure of systems to adapt to the chaotic reality of the operating floor. At events like Hot Sale, this takes its toll,” he warned in an interview.

The avalanche of orders during Hot Sale exposes the cracks in the logistics infrastructure, as  limited capacity, low operational visibility, and disconnected processes—typically resolved with WhatsApp, Excel, or improvised emails —are the order of the day for many operators.

“Without real-time visibility, you can’t properly plan your capacity or be proactive. And that leads to high costs or delays that undermine the customer experience,” Jiménez explained.

This lack of structure not only affects peak season, as outside of Hot Sale, e-commerce in Mexico maintained a projected growth of 24% compounded annually until 2026 , making the need to modernize logistics operationswithout slowing the pace of delivery even more evident.

Faced with operational complexity, Conectamos opted for a radically different approach: an invisible technology layer that integrated with what operators were already using—such as chats, spreadsheets, and legacy ERPs—and gave them order, structure, and real-time visibility through Artificial Intelligence (AI).

“We didn’t impose a new system. We connected to what already existed, structured the data, and automated workflows. This allowed us to optimize routes, validate deliveries, and anticipate errors. All of this was frictionless and had no learning curve,” the CEO explained.

In that sense, Jiménez explained to this media outlet that in the case of unpredictable eventualities, for example, what has been happening at the port of Manzanillo due to the protest by customs workers, proactive communication is the best ally.

“Being warned in advance about a delay isn’t the same as finding out when you’re already upset. The end user is the one who pays the price. This affects both the reputation of the e-commerce and the shipping company,” Jiménez said.

In the midst of a high-demand season and facing an expanding e-commerce ecosystem, the keys to success, according to Jiménez, are organizing, visualizing, and anticipating .

“The key is having visibility into the operation. From there, we could make better decisions, allocate resources, optimize routes, and prevent the customer from finding out about problems when it was too late,” he emphasized.

Technology alone doesn’t solve the logistical challenges of Hot Sales, but when applied intelligently and focused on operational reality, it can make the difference between a successful campaign and a reputational crisis.

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In an increasingly competitive and demanding ecosystem, Mercado Libre has invested in technology and the strategic expansion of its infrastructure to maintain its promise of ever-faster deliveries. In 26 cities in Mexico, the company delivers packages the same day a user makes a purchase.

With its own air network, predictive artificial intelligence, and specialized distribution centers , the company declared itself ready to face Hot Sale 2025, which will take place from May 26 to June 3.

In an interview with T21, Omar Ramírez , Senior Director of Logistics at Mercado Libre México, detailed how the company has transformed its logistics network to meet growing demand and deliver products on the same day , a milestone that combines cutting-edge technology, specialized infrastructure, and a hybrid logistics ecosystem.

“The 37% year-over-year growth would not be possible without technology that allows us to be more efficient from the moment we collect the product from the producer, through the delivery of the product to our centers, until it reaches the buyer,” Ramírez said.

One of the key developments is the use of artificial intelligence in its Receiving Center , which predicts demand and strategically allocates inventory across the country’s 12 distribution centers.

“This system has continuous learning, the famous Machine Learning, but not only that, it also predicts which products are sold or will be in greatest demand in different cities across the country. In such a way that in this product reception center, this system, which helps with artificial intelligence and optimization components, tells you which city in which fulfillment center, for example in León, Guadalajara, Monterrey or the Valley of Mexico, which is where we also distribute nationally, where to house that stock, where to put a certain number of SKUs and their depth in items to be able to meet future demand,” he explained.

This approach has allowed Mercado Libre to scale operations without losingdelivery speed, optimizing its ground network and reducing costs.

In February, the company opened a new 100,000 m2 distribution center in the State of Mexico , specifically designed for large-sized products. The facility stands out for its vertical utilization and automation, key elements for improving productivity.

The strategy is complemented by its own airline network, which already operates up to six flights daily during peak seasons.

“We’ve not only changed the aircraft model, we’ve also expanded airport coverage. Today, we’re reaching many more areas the next day,” Ramírez noted.

On the other hand, the last mile is served through more than 3,300 parcel delivery agencies distributed across thousands of neighborhoods, in addition to a flexible model called Mercado Envíos Extra , which allows individuals or family businesses to make deliveries and operate routes.

Omar Ramírez also highlighted the use of electric vehicles as part of a regional sustainability strategy.

“We have nearly a thousand vehicles circulating in Mexico, as well as in other Latin American countries, and all of them are part of our commitment to responsible operations,” he said.

What’s missing to go further?

Ramírez admitted that, although same-day deliveries are already available in 26 cities, there are still areas where the infrastructure to achieve this is lacking.

“We’re ready: we have the storage capacity, the systems, the drivers, and the vehicles. What’s needed are the conditions to bring that speed to more regions,” he concluded.

With this in mind, and with an eye toward Hot Sale 2025, Omar Ramírez assures that Mercado Libre is prepared to face peak demand without sacrificing its promise of fast, reliable, and sustainable delivery.

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Mercado Libre

The twelfth edition of Hot Sale in Mexico , which will be held from May 26 to June 3, 2025 , comes with high expectations of digital consumption, in which 7 out of 10 Internet users plan to purchase a product or service during this campaign, according to the Pulso Hot Sale 2025 report by the Mexican Online Sales Association (AMVO) .

Since 2018, purchase intent has grown by more than 22 percentage points , reflecting the increasing value this seasonality represents for consumers.

In this context , Alejandro Caballero highlighted that this year a record investment of three thousand 400 million dollars (mdd) was announced in Mexico , an increase of 34% compared to the previous year.

This commitment reinforces Meli’s leadership, which has invested more than $1 billion annually in the country over the past five years .

“Our investment has allowed us to build the most competitive logistics arm in Mexico. Today, we are the largest carrier in the country, and that allows us to offer same-day or next-day deliveries,” Caballero said.

Currently, Mexico is the company’s second-largest market , after Brazil and ahead of Argentina.

In 2024, Mercado Libre grew 37% in net revenue globally , and in the country alone it already has around 25 thousand employees , compared to the 300 it had just six years ago.

During Hot Sale 2025, they will offer discounts of up to 55% on 15 million products , within a catalog that exceeds 100 million items .

In this regard, Caballero highlighted that 50% of sales come from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) , and 75% of registered sellers are also SMEs .

“We’re further supporting SMEs. Our ecosystem greatly helps Mexican families, including with loans and campaigns designed to boost them,” he added.

For his part, Alessandro Labelli, Insurtech Director of Mercado Pago , explained that Mercado Libre will offer a 10% discount with Mercado Pago credit cards, a 10% discount with deferred payment options ( Buy Now, Pay Later ); 18 and 24 months of interest-free payments on purchases made on and off Mercado Libre; 10 to 20% coupons with seven participating banks; and 10 to 20% cashback with five financial institutions.

Logistics, the silent differentiator of e-commerce

Omar Ramírez, Senior Director of Logistics at Mercado Libre Mexico, pointed out that eight out of 10 consumers want their package delivered to their home , and there’s a significant strategic plan to make that possible, so ” logistics is just as important as discounts .”

In this regard, Ramírez explained that technology is the key to aligning processes and responding to growing demand , aligned with a distribution and storage expansion strategy.

Currently, more than 80% of the products sold use the company’s fulfillmentmodel, which already operates 12 logistics centers with almost one million square meters and 100% recycled packaging .

The logistics network includes more than 100 operational nodes , a fleet of more than 900 electric vehicles and  an air hub in Querétaro , with four aircraft operating daily, and up to six flights per day during Hot Sale , making same-day deliveries possible in 26 cities across the country.

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After the January slump, a period in which orders fall substantially, February brings with it a new wave of dynamism for e-commerce and Valentine’s Day becomes one of the first big dates of the year for this industry.

However, the increase in shipping demand also puts the logistics of parcel companies and their ability to maintain a satisfactory delivery experience to the test.

In fact, Mail Boxes Etc estimates that order volume increases from 35% to 42% after the first month of the year, and as consumers become accustomed to faster and more efficient shipping, the pressure on parcel services increases.

This is where 4PL (Fourth-Party Logistics) technology plays a fundamental role, facilitating a key relationship between retailers and logistics operators to ensure that orders arrive on time and without setbacks.

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Factors such as delays, failed deliveries or lost packages can cause dissatisfaction and affect brand perception.

In fact, recent studies indicate that almost 80% of online shoppers would not return to a store that provided them with a bad delivery experience, so logistics firms must balance speed, costs and efficiency without compromising service quality.

4PL: The technology that transforms logistics

The evolution of e-commerce has driven the growth of 4PL providers, whose customized solutions allow companies to improve their logistics management and focus on their business.

Studies indicate that the 4PL logistics market size in Latin America is estimated at $3.42 billion and is expected to reach $5.21 billion by 2029 , with a compound annual growth of 8.79% through 2029.

But what makes 4PL providers so relevant? Their impact lies in their ability to integrate advanced technologies for warehouse management, process automation, real-time tracking, cost control and transport route optimization.

This enables retailers to reduce unnecessary costs, manage delivery times more accurately, and ensure frictionless order fulfillment.

While high demand for Valentine’s Day puts the efficiency of parcel services and 4PL to the test , this logistics “relationship” is not only key for this date, but for the future of commerce.

Consumer demands continue to rise, and the expectation of ultra-fast, error-free delivery is becoming standard.

As 4PL technology continues to evolve, companies that adopt these systems will have a competitive advantage in optimizing their supply chains.

From predictive data analysis to artificial intelligence applied to logistics , innovation will be the differentiating factor for companies that want to “delight” their customers with impeccable delivery experiences.

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Mexico is already one of the countries where users are increasingly opting for digital solutions to simplify air travel during high season, which also allows for reduced waiting times and advance reservations.

According to a Statista report, nearly 45% of Mexicans made online reservations in 2023, and the percentage of trips booked in June, July and August 2024 within the first seven days before  check-in  increased from 17% to 24% during the same period, according to RateHawk .

“ These data reflect how airlines and airports have an opportunity to use digital transformation to their advantage to optimize their operations and  improve the user experience , which will increase their competitiveness globally ,” said Enrique Mendoza Arce, CEO of enITma.

He mentioned that artificial intelligence is part of the digital transformation in the airline industry and its use responds to the need of travelers to simplify and personalize their experience.

He explained that according to a global survey conducted by Expedia Group, 32% of Mexican travelers said they had used conversational AI for flight planning. Similarly, he points out that half of those surveyed would be willing to use AI to find a hotel or vacation rental, and 46% would use it to discover tourist activities.

He also said that the use of AI makes it easier for companies to optimize their internal operations, from predicting demand during peak seasons to efficient resource management, since data-based technologies help make informed decisions. This translates into a better ability to offer quality services and deal with demand peaks without compromising customer experience.

“ Digital transformation at airports also includes analysing real-time data on weather conditions, air traffic and aircraft availability, which makes it easier for airlines to dynamically adjust schedules. This reduces delays and improves punctuality, an essential aspect during peak season ,” he explained.

Likewise, he said that automation, which aims to perform tasks with little or no human intervention , has helped speed up long lines for check  -in  and baggage check-in.

For example, digital self-service kiosks allow travelers to check in their bags in a matter of minutes, eliminating the need to interact with an agent. Similarly, facial recognition boarding gates significantly reduce boarding time, streamlining the process and increasing customer satisfaction.

He also explained that airline mobile apps and websites have also evolved to offer much more personalized and intuitive experiences. From booking tickets to real-time flight updates, “these platforms have become an indispensable ally for modern travelers.”

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Walmart Mexico and Central America (Walmex) reported that it has strengthened its logistics network to serve its more than five million daily customers during this sixth edition of El Fin Irresistible , a seasonal event typical of the largest self-service store chain that began on November 7 and will end on November 20.

Walmex moved more than 1.5 billion boxes of products this year , with 3,065 stores and clubs, 21 distribution centers and an expanding last mile network.

With more than 31 thousand postal codes covered, 17 omnichannel routes and 34 delivery stations, Walmart de México y Centroamérica has strengthened its logistics, with 1.2 million square meters of facilities.

Walmex recently announced the laying of the first stone of what will be its 34th distribution center in the region , located in the municipality of Silao, Guanajuato, which will have the capacity to serve more than 600 stores and clubs in Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacán, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, Tamaulipas and Zacatecas.

The group has also made some improvements to its technology, such as the introduction of robots to speed up order picking, as well as X-ray systems to ensure correct shipments of high-value items.

In this regard, the group has made use of its distribution centers in Chihuahua, Mexicali and Villahermosa to cover omnichannel demand, which are already enabled for last-mile deliveries.

Walmart Mexico and Central America operates with a team of more than 18,500 associates , guaranteeing efficient supply in all its stores and clubs throughout Mexico.

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