The economic reforms recently announced by the Cuban government could usher in a new era for Mexican companies involved in foreign trade and logistics . While experts rule out an abandonment of the socialist system, they do believe the island is making some aspects of its economic model more flexible due to an urgent need to guarantee supply and attract investment.

During the third extraordinary session of the National Assembly of People’s Power (ANPP) , the Cuban government announced new measures aimed at strengthening the economy, boosting the participation of private actors and promoting foreign investment, in a context marked by a severe energy crisis, food shortages and liquidity problems.

For Mariana Alonso, an international trade specialist and commercial director of Praxis Logística , it is an exaggeration to claim that Cuba “has opened up to capitalism” or that the political regime has changed. However, she acknowledged that there is a clear sign that the current economic model is facing significant pressure.

“What we do have is a very strong sign of weakness with the current regime. We are talking about blackouts of up to 20 hours, protests, external pressure, and an economic package that acknowledges, even if it doesn’t say so explicitly, that the closed model can no longer be sustained,” he noted in an interview.

From a logistical perspective, the opening takes on a different meaning. When an economy struggling with energy, fuel, infrastructure, and foreign exchange shortages seeks greater participation from private companies and foreign capital, logistics ceases to be a complementary service and becomes an indispensable condition for any reform to materialize.

For the Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (Comce) Northeast chapter , the crisis the island is going through is also an example of how the lack of infrastructure and economic certainty end up directly affecting supply chains.

“This case demonstrates the need for infrastructure, energy, maritime activity, and economic certainty. Without these, there is no flow of goods or development,” explained Javier Cendejas, president of Comce Noreste, in an interview.

The executive considered that the scarcity of basic goods and infrastructure limitations make Cuba a market that, despite its complexities, could attract investment and generate opportunities for nearby countries like Mexico.

However, without transportation, efficient imports, storage, internal distribution, financing, and traceability, economic openness risks remaining only on paper.

An opportunity for Mexico

Mariana Alonso believes that Mexico has natural advantages to become one of the island’s closest trading partners, thanks to geographical proximity, maritime connectivity, export experience, and the existing trade relationship between the two countries.

“Cuba has an urgent need for reliable supplies, cargo consolidation, agro-industrial inputs, electric mobility, spare parts, and last-mile solutions. There is an opportunity for Mexico, but it remains a complex market,” he explained.

Despite its relatively small size compared to other markets, Mexico maintains a highly favorable trade balance with Cuba. According to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , in 2025 Mexican exports to the island totaled $699 million, while imports from Cuba amounted to just $13.3 million, resulting in a surplus of $686 million for Mexico.

Sectors where demand could grow include food, agro-industrial inputs, energy efficiency equipment, solar panels, batteries, tourism materials, consumer products, technology, and specialized services .

Likewise, opportunities could arise for logistics operators, freight forwarders, integrators, and companies capable of offering door-to-door solutions , cargo consolidation, document coordination, and traceability for exporters interested in serving the Cuban market.

“We shouldn’t assume it will be an easy or immediate market. The important thing is to identify where the needs are most urgent and support that demand with logistical solutions,” he commented.

According to Cendejas, the geographical proximity and the productive experience of Mexican companies could make the country one of the island’s natural partners if economic openness is consolidated.

“Mexico can be a much closer strategic partner. There are companies with the experience and production capacity to collaborate and provide solutions for Cuba,” he said.

In addition to food and consumer goods, the president of Comce Noreste identified opportunities in services, tourism, hospitality, education and construction materials, sectors in which Mexico has experience and a consolidated offering.

However, Alonso cautioned that Cuba’s potential should be analyzed with care . The island faces financial constraints, energy problems, uncertainty about the implementation of reforms, and a partial dollarization process that adds complexity to operations.

“Cuba remains a market that requires reviewing state authorizations, understanding how the exchange rate will work, and evaluating payment mechanisms. We must proceed step by step and study how the opening evolves,” he emphasized.

The executive emphasized that entering the market without a clear strategy would entail significant risks. Aspects such as regulatory compliance, selection of local partners, insurance, documentation, and traceability will be fundamental to ensuring successful operations.

Cendejas agreed, stating that the main variable for any company will be legal and financial certainty .

“Logistics also involves money. There has to be fiscal, customs, and contractual certainty, and the assurance that you will be paid. Cuba’s regulatory, geopolitical, and financial particularities are complex and must be evaluated with great responsibility,” he warned.

In his opinion, the opportunities exist, but they will hardly come without changes that give greater confidence to international investors and operators.

The United States, a factor to consider

The situation is also influenced by the relationship between Havana and Washington . The economic reforms come amid a new offensive by the administration of US President Donald Trump, which has tightened financial and energy restrictions on the island, limiting its access to the international banking system and increasing pressure on companies linked to the state-owned conglomerate GAESA.

In that context, increased trade between Mexico and Cuba could have political implications in the complex relationship with the United States; however, Alonso believes the opportunity must be properly assessed.

“Yes, there may be one more stripe on the tiger, but we also have to see the positive side. Mexico has geographic proximity, industrial capacity, and export experience. The important thing is to understand that we are talking about an emerging situation and that there are real needs to be addressed,” he stated.

Cendejas indicated that any trade rapprochement should be handled with caution, given that the United States remains Mexico’s main trading partner.

“Diplomatically, an international understanding would have to be built. The United States would have to see that there is a real intention for Cuba to move forward and that economic and trade aid has clear rules,” he commented.

The president of Comce Noreste emphasized that, beyond the political implications, the island’s geographical proximity and supply needs could favor a greater economic relationship with Mexico in the long term .

Cuba’s economic transformation is opening a conversation that had previously remained outside the logistics sector. If the reforms move forward, Mexico could participate in a potential trade reconfiguration of the Caribbean, where proximity, execution capacity, and reliability could become competitive advantages for Mexican companies.

Comment and follow us on LinkedIn:  @Jennifer Galindo  /  @GrupoT21

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