The uncertainty generated by changes in North American trade policies has become one of the main factors holding back investment decisions and business strategies within the heavy vehicle industry , said Manny Katakis, Senior Analyst at S&P Global Mobility .

The warning comes in a context where the firm reduced its economic growth expectation for Mexico from 1.2% to 0.9% for 2026, while the forecast for North America was also adjusted downwards by 0.3 percentage points compared to its previous report.

According to the company, the slower economic growth is associated with trade uncertainty, high energy costs, and persistent geopolitical tensions at a global level.

During the AMDA Commercial Vehicles Forum 2026 , held by the Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors (AMDA) , the specialist pointed out that beyond tariffs or trade measures, the main challenge for manufacturers and customers is the lack of certainty about the permanence of these policies.

“More than the policies themselves, what is affecting the market is inconsistency and uncertainty,” he commented.

Katakis explained that the industry continues to monitor the evolution of trade policies driven by the United States, as well as the review process of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , whose definition will be key for manufacturers’ long-term planning.

He even suggested that, although it is not part of S&P Global Mobility ‘s base scenario , there is a possibility that the three countries will end up negotiating separate bilateral agreements instead of maintaining a trilateral treaty.

“It is a possible scenario among the options that currently exist,” he said.

Given this environment, several commercial vehicle manufacturers have begun to adjust their manufacturing strategies , favoring greater regionalization of production in North America.

According to the analyst, some automakers are strengthening operations specifically aimed at serving local markets, while others are reconfiguring their supply chains to reduce risks associated with regulatory or commercial changes.

Among the examples he mentioned were new investments and production projects announced in Mexico, the United States and Canada, as well as strategic moves by manufacturers seeking greater flexibility to respond to possible changes in the region’s trade conditions.

He recalled that the Mexican market for medium and heavy vehicles went from occupying the eighth position worldwide to number 14 after the slowdown observed after the pre-purchase of units registered in 2024, which has forced manufacturers and distributors to rethink strategies for the coming years.

Katakis highlighted that one of the companies best positioned to adapt to changing scenarios is PACCAR , because it has production capacity in all three North American countries.

Conversely, he explained that other manufacturers maintain more concentrated production structures, which limits their room for maneuver in the face of possible tariff adjustments or modifications to trade agreements.

The specialist added that, in addition to trade uncertainty, factors such as the conflict in the Middle East continue to put pressure on the sector’s operating costs . As an example, he pointed out that the average price of diesel in Mexico is currently around 28 pesos per liter, compared to the 25 pesos average observed during 2025, a situation that continues to put pressure on transport companies and the logistics chain.

However, he considered that there are positive signs for the industry, including the recovery of heavy vehicle production in North America , an improvement in order intake and the expectation of a moderate economic recovery in Mexico during the next few years.

“There are encouraging signs, but we still need greater clarity on trade matters so that companies can resume their investment plans with greater confidence,” he concluded.

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Deacero Logistics began to redraw its transportation strategy in North America with a more aggressive bet on intermodal , a segment in which it seeks to migrate part of the cargo it currently moves by truck to rail, with the aim of gaining operational efficiency, reducing costs and cushioning the impact that steel tariffs have had on the profitability of the industry.

The company plans to expand its intermodal routes in Mexico, the United States, and Canada during 2026 , following a strategy that combines logistical optimization with commercial expansion. For Deacero, the U.S. market represents a strategic priority, not only because of its potential volume but also because of the need to maintain margins in a more restrictive business environment.

“We need to capitalize on the United States; it’s a very important market for us. The steel industry has been greatly affected by tariffs, and finding lower-cost transportation routes allows us to remain profitable in different markets,” says Arturo Rodríguez, Deputy Director of Global Transportation and Logistics at Deacero and Deacero Logistics, in an interview with T21.

In that growth map, Chicago appears as one of the most attractive routes for the company , although Canada is emerging as an even more strategic market. The absence of tariffs and the possibility of moving larger volumes per container, compared to the restrictions on trucking, place cities like Toronto, Montreal, and Quebec City on the company’s intermodal roadmap.

“Canada is a very attractive market for us because there are no tariffs, we have greater market penetration, and we ship higher volumes; it’s an extremely important route. Toronto, Montreal, Quebec City, and Chicago are potential routes. We are registered as IMCs (consolidators) with Ferromex and Union Pacific, and we are in talks with BNSF and CPKC,” he says.

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LEÓN, GTO.- The competitiveness of the automotive industry in North America increasingly depends on the ability of its logistics chains to respond to an environment marked by trade uncertainty, economic volatility and technological transformation, specialists agreed on the panel “The automotive logistics world championship is played in North America”.

Within the framework of the second edition of the  Road 2 Logistics Automotive 2026 of the  Industrial Cluster , representatives of the automotive and logistics sector pointed out that the region maintains structural advantages that position it as one of the main manufacturing hubs in the world .

“The United States, Mexico, and Canada are not separated by seas, which gives us a constructive advantage. We have highways, trains, and different means of transportation that allow us to move materials, cars, and finished products much more efficiently,” highlighted Roxana Castro, Transportation Control Manager at BMW Group ‘s San Luis Potosí Plant.

Anna Frank, Vice President of Purchasing at FORVIA Clarion Electronics America, believes that North America has a very favorable integration between logistics, manufacturing, and technological development, which allows it to be one of the most competitive regions in the world. However, she said that there are challenges in the supply chain , “especially connectivity, electrification, sustainability; all of that here we have the precondition to build a very resilient chain.”

In his presentation, Cornelius Goertz, director of PC&L and Aftermarket for Nexteer Automotive Mexico, pointed out that logistics has become the bridge that connects all the links involved in automotive production, from the supply of components to the final delivery of vehicles, and estimated that without this coordination, regional competitiveness would be impossible.

One of the central themes of the panel was the evolution of the just-in-time model , which continues to be fundamental to automotive manufacturing, although it now requires greater flexibility and resilience in the face of supply chain disruptions.

In that regard, Roxana Castro stated that flexibility has ceased to be a competitive advantage and has become an indispensable condition . She explained that companies can no longer focus solely on operational efficiency, but must guarantee the continuity of their operations in the face of any contingency. “We need efficiency, but without jeopardizing the entire supply chain.”

The panelists also emphasized that digital tools and algorithms allow for the analysis of variables that were impossible to manage a few years ago.

The conversation also touched on the role of smart inventories . Unlike traditional models based on static safety stocks, companies are increasingly using dynamic systems that adjust inventory levels according to component criticality, supply source, and market conditions.

“We really need smart inventories, because one component is no longer like another. If it comes from China, it’s different than if it comes from Taiwan, Japan, or any other Asian country. There are digital tools to anticipate and identify critical components, and based on that, we make the decision,” said Anna Frank.

The experts agreed that the strategic use of data allows for risk reduction without compromising efficiency . However, they cautioned that data quality remains a challenge, as decisions based on inaccurate data can impact the entire operation. “Data is key. It’s the most important element for ensuring an efficient supply chain, and therefore, smart inventory management,” Goertz emphasized.

Another key point of the discussion was the changing role of suppliers. The panelists emphasized that simply meeting delivery deadlines is no longer enough to be considered a strategic partner in the automotive industry.

Today, automakers are looking for suppliers that can react quickly to changes in volume, border closures, regulatory adjustments, or logistical disruptions. Adaptability has become as important a criterion as quality or cost.

“Ultimately, what we’re looking for from the supplier is the certainty that the production line will be able to continue normally. That even if there are road closures, changes in rates, or changes in volume, they have that flexibility,” Roxana Castro stated.

Participants emphasized that collaboration between manufacturers, logistics operators, carriers, and suppliers will be crucial to facing the challenges of the coming years.

One of the panel’s conclusions is that North America must strengthen regional integration, invest in logistics infrastructure, accelerate technological adoption, and develop specialized talent to maintain its global competitiveness.

It is worth remembering that in April 2026, exports of light vehicles manufactured in Mexico showed growth, totaling 286,317 units, which meant an increase of 11.4% compared to the same month of 2025, according to figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

Meanwhile, from January to April of this year, 1,081,948 vehicles were exported, a 4.6% increase compared to the same period last year.  The United States  was the main destination for light vehicle exports, accounting for 76% , or 821,984 units.  Canada followed  with 134,245 vehicles , representing 12.4% of exports. These figures reflect the importance of automotive integration in the North American region.

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UPS reported that it invested nearly $50 million in dedicated industrial networking capabilities and equipment to help automakers and industrial manufacturers operate with greater resilience and precision in North America.

In addition, it announced the expansion of its North American Air Freight (NAAF) capabilities, introducing for the first time a heavy cargo air service with guaranteed delivery to and from Mexico and expanding coverage in the region to better support production-critical supply chains.

“Our automotive and industrial customers want a simple logistics solution. They need reliability, visibility, and a partner that understands their supply chains end-to-end, today and tomorrow. We’ve made strategic investments to build the team and network that meet their needs like no other in the industry,” said Matt Guffey, UPS Chief Commercial and Strategy Officer.

Therefore, starting in August, NAAF will offer 1, 2, and 3-day service options to and from Mexico that help manufacturers transport high-value, time-sensitive parts more quickly and predictably.

“For UPS customers, this means fewer border delays, better visibility from origin to destination, and greater confidence in keeping production lines running,” he said.

He noted that in recent years, the company has modernized its network to improve reliability, visibility and speed, delivering measurable results for every customer, including automotive and industrial manufacturers.

Among them is the competitive value for less-than-full-load shipments with UPS Ground, offering freight rates for shipments over 150 pounds, especially for automotive and industrial carriers seeking reliability in small packages.

In addition, it expanded the scope of early delivery to include more US companies the following day at 10:30 a.m., a critical advantage for tight production deadlines.

It also provides greater visibility and control through automation in 67.5% of UPS facilities and integrated RFID detection technology throughout the network.

Similarly, it offers on-demand and after-hours delivery through Roadie , a UPS company, which allows same-day delivery of parts to dealerships and repair shops safely without the need for on-site personnel.

Complementing its comprehensive network, the company has established a dedicated team of over 300 subject matter experts with deep experience in automotive and industrial manufacturing.

“This combination of network investment and expertise comes at a critical time, as supply chain performance has become a key determinant of speed to market, cost control, and long-term competitiveness for manufacturers worldwide,” he said.

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Rail traffic in North America grew by 2% between January and May 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported .

According to the agency’s report, the rail volume in the first 18 weeks of the year was 12 million 468 thousand 690 wagons and intermodal units .

He specified that in that cycle, the segments that grew the most were grains with an increase of 13.7%, oil and petroleum products with an annual increase of 6%, as well as agricultural products with 8 percent.

Meanwhile, Mexican railways participated with 478,587 railcars, containers and intermodal trailers , which represented an increase of 16.3% compared to the same period last year.

The AAR specified that the segments that grew the most in traffic between Mexico and the United States were vehicles and parts, grains, intermodal and chemicals , to name a few.

Meanwhile, Canadians reported a cumulative rail traffic volume of 2,940,777 wagons, containers and trailers , a 0.2% year-on-year increase.

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Marcelo Ebrard, head of the Ministry of Economy (SE) , announced the call for a Mexican trade mission to Canada, which seeks to strengthen the economic and business relationship with that country, and which will take place on May 7, 8 and 9 of this year.

The mission aims to open new opportunities for trade, investment and collaboration between both economies and countries, which are part of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , whose review will take place next July and, starting on March 16, Mexican and American authorities will begin the first round of bilateral meetings towards the review of this agreement.

Ebrard indicated that the delegation that will be formed will visit Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto , and that an invitation is being extended to all Mexican companies that want to participate, whether small, medium or large.

“What do you get from participating? Well, it gives you meetings with all the sectors and companies that interest you. It’s organized by sector. It gives you access to B2B meetings with other companies there. It gives you access to meetings with the sector you’re working in to learn what you can do in Canada to grow. And it gives you access to all government agencies. It’s well worth it,” the federal official emphasized.

He recalled that this initiative stems from a conversation that the President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, had with the Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, and the visit of a delegation of 400 Canadian companies to Mexico that took place last February.

Canada is the third largest investor in Mexico. According to the Ministry of Economy (SE), in 2025 Canada ranked third in terms of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the country, with $3.323 billion , representing 8.1% of the total FDI received by Mexico during that period, which amounted to $40.871 billion .

“For your information, I already have confirmation from many Mexican companies, including mining, automotive, and everything related to creative industries and electromobility, that they will be participating,” Ebrard pointed out.

He specified that the call for applications to form the mission will be open from March 12th and will close on April 11th.

Mexico and Canada, essential for the USMCA

In his remarks, Juan Ramón de la Fuente, head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE) , indicated that Mexico and Canada have a solid relationship based on economic cooperation , political dialogue, trust, and shared democratic values.

The Mexican Foreign Minister emphasized that both countries are key players in the North American context, along with the United States . “Closely linked value chains, reciprocal investments, innovation, and technology can translate into benefits for many more families than they are currently enjoying. We must also be part of this new commitment, which we must all strengthen in our actions. And indeed, the review of the trade agreement is coming very soon,” he noted.

Meanwhile, Cameron Mackay, Canada’s ambassador to Mexico, stated that the review of the USMCA represents “a critical opportunity” to improve the free trade partnership.

“Canada’s position is clear: our priority is to maintain a trilateral agreement so that Mexicans, Canadians and Americans can continue to benefit from this trade relationship that has existed for more than 30 years,” he emphasized.

Luis Rosendo Gutiérrez, Undersecretary of Foreign Trade at the Ministry of Economy, stated that the Mexican government is very clear that Canada’s participation in the trilateral trade agreement is fundamental .

Ebrard rules out negative impacts on Mexico from Article 301

Marcelo Ebrard highlighted that 85% of Mexico’s trade within the USMCA has nothing to do with Article 301 of the United States Trade Act of 1974.

When asked about the investigation announced by the administration of US President Donald Trump to impose new tariffs on several countries, including Mexico, the Mexican official said that “we do not expect it to have a new impact that should concern us in terms of overall trade.”

It is worth recalling that the United States announced on March 11 that it would initiate new investigations into industrial overcapacity in 16 trading partners and into forced labor, in order to reinstate tariff pressure, after the U.S. Supreme Court issued a ruling in February that nullified most of Trump’s generalized tariffs, considering that he violated the regulations by imposing them unilaterally based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) .

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From an operational perspective, Claudia Serano, Senior Sales at Traffix , explained that the impact of this environment has been widespread for all companies operating land transport in Mexico , regardless of whether it involves domestic freight, last-mile delivery, or border crossings. Regulatory and customs pressures, coupled with a shrinking market, have forced companies to rethink priorities and strategies to sustain operations.

In that context, the focus shifted to nurturing existing relationships. Serano noted that, faced with an aggressive market, the strategy is to protect current clients while maintaining a balanced relationship with transportation providers, recognizing that carriers today are also selective about who they work with.

This logic is reflected in the way the company structures its ground transportation operations in the region. Traffix, a Canadian company founded in 1979 , operates ground transportation services in North America with a hybrid model: its own fleet in Canada and a network of transportation partners in Mexico and the United States. According to Serrano, this approach makes the development, evaluation, and compliance with standards by suppliers crucial, especially in an environment where capacity is limited and operational risk is constant.

The selection of these partners is not accidental. Serano explained that there is an internal process focused on procurement and compliance , which includes requirements such as certifications, legal and tax compliance, as well as minimum fleet capacities. These criteria aim to reduce risks in an environment where ground operations face increasingly uncontrollable variables .

Beyond the operational structure, one of the daily challenges lies in incident management. Accidents, thefts, border crossing delays, overnight stays, or extended stays are all part of the daily reality of land transport. Faced with these scenarios, Serano emphasized the importance of clear communication, presenting the full picture, and explaining potential additional costs, while avoiding unnecessary alarm.

Security has emerged as one of the main bottlenecks in Mexico . Serrano acknowledged that some routes, due to their level of risk, simply cease to be viable, regardless of demand. This is compounded by infrastructure challenges and port congestion, particularly in Pacific corridors, where additional costs and operational uncertainty discourage suppliers.

The result is a more cautious market , with clients seeking to reduce costs in a context where operating expenses continue to rise. For Serano, this disconnect between expectations and operational reality is one of the sector’s major challenges in 2025, a year he describes as particularly challenging for land-based logistics.

In this context, cross-border operations demand increasingly precise decisions. It’s not just about moving cargo between countries, but about doing so under changing conditions, with tight margins, and a supply chain that only survives if each link understands the context in which it operates.

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Mexico has consolidated a strategic role within supply chains , not only for Stellantis , but also in various industrial sectors, according to Evelin Nava, Director of Purchasing and Supplier Quality at Stellantis Mexico , who analyzed the evolution of the automotive supply chain and how it has behaved in the country.

At the Automotive Logistics & Supply Chain conference, Nava explained that the disruption to supply chains during the pandemic forced a rethinking of them under a regional framework. This shift placed Mexico at the center of the strategy thanks to its quality, cost competitiveness, and a logistics network capable of serving the entire American continent.

In her presentation entitled “Mexico’s Moment: Turning Localization into a Resilient, Competitive, and Compliant Supply Chain ,” the director noted that this shift to Mexico had positive results in their purchasing .

Nava reported that Stellantis has doubled its purchases in Mexico. While previously between 20% and 30% of sales for North America originated in the country, today that figure reaches 50% . This growth not only supplies the region but also extends to Europe and parts of Asia, consolidating Mexico as a key node in the global network.

However, Nava warned that the biggest challenge right now is complying with the rules of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). He pointed out that about 10% of the parts leaving Mexico still don’t meet the treaty’s requirements, which generates tariff costs . To address this, Stellantis is focusing on vertical integration and transparency.

Another key focus is leveraging Mexico’s strengths in certain areas of knowledge, while advancing the development of more complex areas such as electronics

“We have the knowledge and technology for the stamping, painting, and plastic aspects, which are already  known in Mexico , so we have to develop it and take advantage of that. And then, in the long term, focus on the more difficult parts, such as the electronics,” he said. 

Furthermore, the director highlighted that the relationship with suppliers has evolved towards a dynamic of greater transparency and better communication . This change opened the door to initiatives such as Matchmaker , an event that seeks to connect established suppliers with new local players to expand the supply base.

Finally, Nava concluded her remarks with a couple of calls to action for the supply chain community. She pointed out the need to challenge internal teams to identify material substitutes , such as aluminum, one of the materials most affected by tariffs. At the same time, she emphasized that strategies must not lose sight of sustainability .

“We have to think green. We know that everything that is changing with the climate is happening in logistics, of course, but we have to make sure that we don’t forget to be comprehensive, to use, to decide, and also to challenge the supply chains,” he concluded.

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The automotive industry in North America has undergone several changes since Donald Trump’s presidential campaign . In recent months alone, several modifications have been made, mainly to electric vehicles, which has affected the transition to electromobility.

Anuar Méndez, Associate Director of Research & Analysis at S&P Global Mobility, mentioned that this has caused a considerable increase in prices, as well as a contraction for the sector; however, uncertainty will continue until the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is carried out.

During the panel “Policy, Production and Propulsion Systems: Vehicle Sales and Production in North America” , held within the framework of Automotive Logistics & Supply Chain, he indicated that amid a volatile business climate, automotive electrification will continue, but at a slower pace than anticipated a year ago.

“We see a more stable industry, without regulations, and customers in the United States will continue to have more affordable options to buy, which is somewhat balancing the effect of uncertainty with gasoline and hybrid vehicles,” he explained.

He mentioned that in Canada there are also repercussions from US policies , which have affected consumer confidence in that country.

Furthermore, there is an uncertain outlook for zero-emission vehicles given what the United States is doing on this issue.

“As the United States contracts its supply and production of electric vehicles, it’s having implications for the Canadian industry. Incentives will no longer be available starting in January, impacting electrification efforts, which are being reduced or eliminated. Furthermore, automakers are realizing how difficult it will be to bring electric vehicles to this country and are changing their strategy to have a more diverse portfolio, but it’s uncertain,” he emphasized.

In that regard, he stated that despite the end of incentives in Canada, electrification will continue, but it will be more gradual and will shift towards gasoline-powered vehicles, hybrids, and plug-in hybrids.

He pointed out that in Mexico this alternative is progressing more slowly , and Chinese brands are pushing the change, but “that path to electrification will take time,” and there are few regulations for this segment and no incentives, only tax deductibility.

“We have seen in the industry how Chinese vehicles have disrupted the established pattern of a stable industry. In less than five years, we have seen more than 20 brands enter Mexico. Regarding consumer availability and the openness to buying a new vehicle, we see accessibility with low payment options,” he noted.

He recalled that during 2019 there was a market share of Chinese brands of 0.8%, while during the pandemic, due to their availability, even more began to arrive so that by August of this year the share was 16.9%, surpassing other companies of the same origin .

“Without a regulatory framework and without incentives for electrification, Mexico will lag behind North America’s growth in electric vehicles; vehicle accessibility will be determined by the use of gasoline, and we project a 5% market share for the country in this segment by 2030, while Chinese vehicles will be the preferred option,” he explained.

Given this scenario, he considered that to accelerate the transition in the country, the Mexican government should, as in the United States and Canada, implement feasible deductions for the industry and regulate electrification along with an incentive program.

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QUERÉTARO, QRO.- In a decisive step towards consolidating the economic relationship between Mexico and the United States, the Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (Comce) , the NC Chamber and the North Carolina Hispanic Chamber of Commerce  signed a cooperation agreement aimed at strengthening trade ties, promoting investment and fostering business exchange between both territories.

During the 31st Mexican Foreign Trade Congress , the Comce stated that this agreement’s main objective is to promote mutual economic growth, attract foreign investment, and support companies in maximizing the opportunities offered by the North American trade agreement (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement).

During the signing, Gary J. Salamido , president and CEO of the NC Chamber, highlighted in a video the strategic role of Mexico in the economic development of the region.

“North Carolina is proud to be the number one state in the United States for doing business, where talent and innovation thrive. Mexico is one of our most valued trading partners and plays a key role in advancing supply chains and shared prosperity in North America,” he said.

Salamido emphasized that the NC Chamber maintains a firm commitment to promoting international trade and collaboration with strategic partners such as Mexico, since “this agreement will open doors to new opportunities, trade partners and business exchanges that will benefit both economies.”

The agreement symbolizes a momentous step towards regional integration , aligned with efforts to consolidate a more competitive, resilient and sustainable North America.

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