The downward trend in inflation in Mexico continued in the first half of May 2026, reaching 4.11% at an annual rate , which implied a decrease of 0.16% compared to the previous two weeks, according to the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

The  core price index  —which excludes goods and services with volatile prices— increased 0.13% on a biweekly basis, with a rise in the prices of goods of 0.09% and in those of services of 0.17%.

The  non-core price index  —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations—fell 1.14% on a bi-weekly basis. Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices dropped 0.53%, and energy and regulated tariff prices fell 1.64% on a bi-weekly basis.

Although inflation saw a slight decrease during the comparison period, the price of some products continues to put pressure on Mexicans’ wallets, such as potatoes and other tubers , which increased in cost by 5.46%, tomatoes with an increase of 5.39%, air transport with 4.34%, and LP domestic gas with 1.81% every two weeks.

Conversely,  cucumber was the product that decreased the most with a drop of 22.16%, followed by  green tomato  with a drop of 18.59%,  electricity  with 17.88%,  serrano pepper with 11.21%, lemon with 9.78% and  egg  with a decrease of 2.37% fortnightly.

By state, Hidalgo, the State of Mexico, and Jalisco led the bi-weekly variations, exceeding the national average. Meanwhile, Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur reported the smallest increases in the first half of May.

The decrease in inflation during the cycle reflects an environment of slight stability in electricity prices; however, it also signals higher household expenses due to the increase in the price of some everyday consumer products.

According to estimates from Grupo Financiero BASE , inflation will close 2026 at 4.2 percent , a figure that is still outside the target range of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) , which is 3% +/-1 percentage point.

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Inflation in Mexico accelerated again in March 2026, driven by the rise in agricultural products and services such as air transport , after the increase shown last February, when it stood at 4.02% at an annual rate, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced .

According to the agency, in the third month of the year, the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), which measures the variation in prices of a basket of goods and services, registered an increase of 0.86% compared to the previous month. With this result, the overall annual inflation rate was 4.59% .

“The increase in some agricultural products and the effects of the conflict in the Middle East on energy led to inflation reaching its highest level since October 2024,” the  Financial Group Ve por Más (BX+) indicated  in an analysis.

According to Inegi, the  core price index  – which does not take into account the most volatile goods and services – increased 0.38% monthly , with a rise in the prices of goods of 0.29% and an increase of 0.48% in the prices of services.

“The underlying inflation rate declined slightly, but has remained above 4% for 11 consecutive months despite the fragility of economic activity. Goods prices fell, likely as the effect of January’s fiscal adjustments diminishes and given the currency appreciation of previous months. Conversely, services prices rebounded and are showing variations greater than their historical average despite a fragile economic context,” BX+ explained.

The  non-core price index  —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations— rose 2.46% month-on-month . Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices increased 10.75%, and energy and regulated tariffs rose 0.85% month-on-month, reflecting price pressures on various frequently consumed products and services in Mexico.

The increase in inflation in March is mainly explained by a rebound in the price of agricultural products such as cucumber with a rise of 42.71%, tomato  with 42.01%, air  transport with an increase of 26.28%,  lemon with 18.26%,  green tomato  with 16.46%, potato and other tubers with 14.92% and chicken with 2.82% monthly.

Conversely, the products with the greatest decrease in their cost during the cycle were nopales with a drop of 8.86%, papaya with 4.40%, internet, telephone and pay television packages with 3.59%, eggs with 2.69%, beans with 1.34% and pork with a decrease in its price of 1.28% on a monthly basis.

Among the states with the largest monthly increases in the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) were Guerrero, Puebla, and Tlaxcala . Meanwhile, Chihuahua, Baja California Sur, and Yucatán were among the states with variations below the national average.

According to Ve por Más’s analysis, the annual variation of the INPC “accelerated for the third consecutive month, adding two readings above 4% (upper limit of the Bank of Mexico ‘s tolerance range ) and reached highs since October 2024″ .

“The pressure came from the non-core index, given the marked reversal in agricultural products and –as a result of the conflict in Iran– the greater dynamism in energy,” he explained.

The financial institution considered that “the inflationary outlook has deteriorated ,” and therefore raised its year-end inflation forecast from 3.9% to 4.1%.

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Mexico’s upward inflation trend continued in September, reaching 3.76% at an annual rate , down from 3.57% last August, according to data published Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .

This increase was framed by the core price index – which does not take into account the most volatile goods and services – which increased 0.33% monthly , with a rise in the prices of merchandise of 0.34% and services of 0.32 percent .

Meanwhile, the non-core price index , which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations such as weather conditions, decreased 0.10% monthly . Within this index, agricultural product prices fell 0.14% and energy prices fell 0.06% .

Products with price increases and decreases

The INPC’s behavior in the ninth month of the year caused a price increase for products such as serrano peppers (17.60%), green tomatoes (12.93%), onions (8.05%), and beef (0.92%). It also increased the price of some services, such as primary school tuition , which rose 5.98%, and university tuition , which rose 1.82%.

On the other hand, the products with the greatest price decrease in September 2025 were avocados , with a price decrease of 11.34%, oranges with a 7.74% decrease, air transportation with a 4.27% decrease, eggs with a 2.28% decrease, and domestic LP gas with a decrease of 0.67%.

Chiapas, Aguascalientes, and Tlaxcala were among the country’s states with a variation below the national average in the INPC, while Sonora, Mexico City, and Tamaulipas were the states with the largest increases in this indicator.

The increase in prices for some basic products contributed to the rise in inflation in September 2025.

The figures come in the context of a slower Mexican economy , where consumers have been cautious when purchasing goods and services.

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