The Mexican economy registered mixed results in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), marked by a drop in industrial activities , according to data published this Friday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

In the January-March period of this year, and with seasonally adjusted figures,  the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 0.6% on a quarterly basis , according to information from the agency.

In its annual measurement, Mexico’s GDP showed better results, increasing 0.4%  in real terms.

In the reference cycle, the GDP of primary activities , which include agriculture, mining and fishing, decreased by 1.7% quarterly.

Meanwhile, the  secondary sector , which includes manufacturing and construction, fell by 1% quarter-on-quarter. The tertiary sector , which includes services such as commerce, transportation, and communications, experienced a quarterly decline of 0.4%.

On an annual basis, the GDP of primary activities increased by 3%, that of secondary activities decreased by 1.1%, and that of tertiary activities advanced by 1.1 percent.

According to Inegi, the transport, postal and storage sector registered a positive variation in GDP , with an annual increase of 0.4% in Q1 2026.

“The Quarterly Gross Domestic Product offers, in the short term, a timely, complete and coherent view of the evolution of the country’s economic activities,” Inegi pointed out.

The GDP results for the first quarter of the year are in line with the Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT) , published on April 30 by Inegi, which projected a fall in the Mexican economy of 0.8% on a quarterly basis and an annual growth rate of 0.2%, although the figures released this Friday indicate adjustments: a quarterly decline of 0.6% and an annual increase of 0.4%.

According to Grupo Financiero BASE , the Mexican economy shows signs of being in a “stagnation trap” , caused by weakening institutions, increased informality, a drop in fixed investment and a decline in productivity.

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El cargo Decline in industrial activity hits Mexican economy in Q1 2026 apareció primero en T21.

In a business environment marked by tariff uncertainty and geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East, the Mexican manufacturing industry registered advances in April 2026, according to the Timely Monthly Indicator of Manufacturing Activity (IMOAM), prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

In the fourth month of the year, the agency anticipated a 1.3% increase in manufacturing activity compared to April 2025.

In the reference period, the IMOAM had a value of 107.9 points , as an advance calculation of the Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity (IMAI) of the manufacturing sector.

According to figures released Wednesday by IMOAM, the Mexican manufacturing sector has shown resilience in the face of global trade changes.

According to CIAL Dun & Bradstreet , a firm specializing in advanced data solutions and analysis, the industrial sector, which represents 30.6% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with a value of 561 billion dollars in 2025, continues to face difficulties in recovering.

In that sense, he estimated that the expected growth for this sector in 2026 will be only 0.9 percent .

Given this, he considered that the Mexican economy needs to strengthen investment and productivity to counteract industrial fragility.

The Timely Monthly Indicator of Manufacturing Activity is an experimental statistic to estimate in advance the next monthly value of the manufacturing IMAI, Inegi indicated.

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El cargo Mexican manufacturing sector registers growth in April apareció primero en T21.

El cargo Private consumption in Mexico is not picking up; it shows a decline in February apareció primero en T21.

Mexico could have an economic growth of 1% in 2026 , which would mean a decrease from the 1.2% proposed by Grupo Financiero BASE in a previous review, as explained by Gabriela Siller, director of Economic Analysis of this institution.

In the webinar “Economic Outlook, GDP Estimate for the First Quarter of 2026” , the specialist considered that, in a pessimistic scenario, the country’s economic growth would be 0.60%, and in an optimistic environment it would advance 1.45%, derived from various factors, including the economic spillover from the World Cup.

The decline in the three groups of economic activities – primary, secondary and tertiary – which contributed to the 0.8% quarterly decrease in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26) gives signs of what he called a “stagnation trap” , caused by the weakening of institutions, increased informality, a drop in fixed investment and a decline in productivity.

“The quarterly drop in GDP was indeed sharp, and although we expect a rebound in the second quarter, this would be largely due to the World Cup, which we believe will add 0.15 percentage points to GDP through tourism and additional consumption,” he explained.

The analyst considered that the low growth of the Mexican economy is not a temporary situation, but a structural one , which is reflected in a high rate of informality in employment that, as of last March, stood at 54.85 percent.

Regarding private consumption , which is one of the indicators of GDP, Siller explained that in 2025 this sector closed with an increase of 1.20%, the lowest since 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. “This year consumption started off on the wrong foot, with a drop of 1.55% compared to December 2025.”

By 2026, the financial institution forecasts that private consumption will grow between 1.8% and 2.2% , driven by the World Cup and a greater number of tourists arriving in Mexico for the sporting event.

Gross fixed investment ( machinery and equipment for the production of goods and services) also declined at the start of 2026. According to figures presented by Siller, this indicator fell 14% compared to 2024, when it reached its historical peak. He noted that in 2025, gross fixed investment decreased by 6.5%, and the projection for 2026 is a further decline of 2%.

“There weren’t two consecutive years with declines, something we hadn’t seen since 2019, when Mexico was in a slight recession, and 2020 due to the pandemic,” he emphasized.

Regarding Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Mexico, he noted that although historical high levels have been reached, it should be considered that a large percentage has been for reinvestment.

At the close of 2025, Mexico received $40.871 billion in FDI, which represented a growth of 10.8% compared to the FDI received in 2024, when it was $36.872 billion, according to figures from the Ministry of Economy .

According to Siller, 67.65% of FDI in 2025 was for reinvestment of profits , 14.30% intercompany accounts , and 18.05% was for new investments .

Regarding the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , the specialist said that, although there is a lot of uncertainty, “I think that in the end it will not end badly, unless there are political issues that stop this trade relationship.”

On another topic, he specified that since last year, computer equipment has been Mexico’s top export. “If this product hadn’t grown so much last year, at a rate of 144%, Mexican exports would have fallen by 0.54 percent.”

“But there are several risks. Computer equipment is not a long-term guarantee. To begin with, Mexico is not the main supplier of this product to the United States; that distinction belongs to Taiwan. In fact, for many months we were the main supplier, but Taiwan has now overtaken us. Taiwan accounts for 45% of total U.S. imports of this product, while Mexico accounts for 31%,” he stated.

According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , Mexican exports totaled 70 billion 727 million dollars (mdd) in March 2026 , a growth of 27.7% compared to the same month of 2025.

Regarding inflation, he estimated that it will close this year at 4.2 percent . “Inflation was already expected last year. The truth is that Mexico was fortunate with the reduction in non-core inflation, because we know that non-core inflation is very volatile; even more so if we add factors such as public insecurity in Mexico, which has reduced fruit and vegetable harvests, increasing their price. On the other hand, the increase in energy prices due to the war in Iran is also a latent threat; this has caused consumer inflation to rise in Mexico,” he emphasized.

It is worth remembering that inflation in Mexico stood at 4.59% at an annual rate in March 2026 , driven by a rise in agricultural products and services such as air transport, according to data from Inegi.

According to Banco BASE’s estimates, the Mexican economic outlook is not encouraging, although there are indicators showing a slow recovery that could improve the situation in the second quarter of the year.

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El cargo Banco BASE remains cautious regarding Mexico’s GDP growth outlook apareció primero en T21.

The Mexican economy could grow by 1.6% this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated , which would mean a gradual recovery amid a context marked by adjustments in public finances, high interest rates, an adverse international trade environment and geopolitical conflicts such as the one in the Middle East.

According to the World Economic Outlook report , the international organization indicated that Mexico will experience a slight economic recovery in 2026 after less dynamism in 2025.

By 2027, it projected a better environment for the Mexican economy, which could grow by 2.2% , but remaining cautious about an uncertain economic outlook, stemming from trade barriers and the conflict in the Middle East “which significantly counteracts favorable factors, due to its impact on commodity markets, inflation expectations and financial conditions.”

The IMF’s projections remain below the estimates of  Mexico’s Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) , which forecasts growth of between 1.8% and 2.8% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP); while for 2027 it estimates that it will be between 1.9% and 2.9%, supported by consumption, employment and public and private investment in strategic sectors.

Under this scenario, the federal agency has indicated that the Mexican economy will resume a more dynamic trajectory in 2026 and 2027.

However, some indicators, which serve as a barometer for the Mexican economy, show no recovery. In this regard, although the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP), prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , anticipated a 0.2% monthly increase in consumption for February 2026 and a 2.1% annual increase, Mexican household spending continues to be cautious.

And the global economy?

The IMF report estimated 2.3% growth for the US economy in 2026 and 2.1% for next year. For Canada , it forecasts 1.5% growth this year and 1.9% in 2027. China is projected to grow by 4.4% in 2026 and 4% in 2027.

The international organization  stressed that the international outlook remains subject to  risks and uncertainty , due to tensions in the Middle East and their potential effects on energy and financial markets, and therefore projected that the global economy will grow 3.1% this year and 3.2% in 2027 , below the average observed in the last two years (in 2025 alone it was 3.4%).

The forecast for 2026 has been revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points, and the forecast for 2027 shows no changes compared to the update of January 2026.

“The downward revision to 2026 is mainly due to disruptions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, offset in part by the carryover effect of recent positive data and reduced tariff rates,” the report stated.

The IMF considered that geopolitical tensions could worsen further , potentially leading to an outbreak of internal political tensions.

“The factors of political tension can be complicated by changes in trade policies and other international policies. Regardless of how the geopolitical situation evolves, trade disputes could reignite,” he stressed.

The IMF report comes against a backdrop of rising commodity prices and more restrictive financial conditions that are testing global trade and economic resilience.

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El cargo Amid global tensions, the IMF forecasts slight growth for the Mexican economy in 2026. apareció primero en T21.

Despite the fact that in January 2026 inflation stood at 3.79% at an annual rate , which meant an increase of 0.38% compared to December 2025, Mexicans opened their wallets in the first month of the year, defying the January slump.

According to the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP), the acquisition of goods and services in the country would have increased 4.7% year-on-year in January , according to figures from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

In February 2026, this indicator would also have shown positive figures, registering an annual increase of 3.5% .

Conversely, on a monthly basis, the IOCP predicted a slowdown of 0.6% in the first month of the year , while for February it projected an increase of 0.1 percent .

“Private spending during February was affected by disruptions to economic activity resulting from the episodes of violence and blockades recorded in the country during the month, particularly in the Bajío-West region,” the financial institution BBVA noted .

The IOCP aims to provide timely and accurate estimates of private consumption , which is one of the country’s economic drivers, according to Inegi.

Measuring this economic indicator is key in Mexico, as it represents around 70% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) , and it also helps to understand the population’s economic capacity to acquire  goods  and  services.

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El cargo Mexicans defy the January financial strain; private consumption accelerates at the start of 2026 apareció primero en T21.

In addition to being a ranking , the Top 100 of Autotransport® , prepared by T21 Business Intelligence , is a benchmark for the transport and logistics industry, and has been consolidated as a source of information that goes beyond the positions of the companies, but shares valuable data for this group of companies .

This exercise, which began in 2007, continues to generate value for the sector, and in this 19th edition, progress can be seen, especially in a complex year for the trucking industry.

It highlights that more and more companies are sharing information to be evaluated in this ranking , because they have seen the benefit of being part of this list, which logistics industry participants take as a valid source of information that allows them to plan to serve the market.

This edition incorporates various elements that strengthen the information about the ranking itself , such as the following:

• Top 100 vs. GDP Perspective
• Importance of the Top 100 of Motor Transport®.
• Top 100 of Motor Transport®.
• Methodology and key data.
• Top 10 Preview.
• Top 100 Fleets by Specialty.
• Average age in the Top 100.
• Comparative growth 2019 – 2025.

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El cargo Consistency in the Top 100 apareció primero en T21.

According to the  Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (EOPIBT) , published this Thursday by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the Mexican economy contracted in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), which is its first decline so far this year , marked by a decrease in industrial activities.

In Q3 2025,  Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  fell 0.3%  both quarterly and year-on-year , according to seasonally adjusted figures.

The agency indicated that in the period July-September 2025, the GDP of primary activities , which include agriculture, mining and fishing,  grew 3.2% quarterly .

Meanwhile, the  secondary sector , which includes manufacturing and construction, showed a  1.5% decrease   quarter-on-quarter during the same period. The  tertiary sector , which includes services such as commerce, transportation and communications, education, and health, saw a  0.1% increase  quarter-on-quarter.

“The Timely Estimate of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product offers, in the short term, a view on the evolution of the country’s economic activities,” Inegi explained regarding this indicator.

According to analysts, the uncertainty generated by the United States tariffs offers a low expectation of growth for the Mexican economy for the remainder of the year.

It is worth remembering that Mexico’s GDP grew 0.6% in the second quarter of 2025, driven mainly by the manufacturing and service industries, so if the INEGI estimate from this Thursday is confirmed, the country’s economy would be heading for a decline.

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El cargo Decline in industrial activity impacts Mexico’s GDP decline in Q3 2025 apareció primero en T21.

Although the Mexican economy remains weak and the trade outlook shows no clear signs of improvement, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 1% by 2025.

This increase reflects a slight rebound in the international organization’s forecasts, which last July projected that the Mexican economy could grow  0.2%  this year, despite the uncertainty generated by tariffs around the world.

“Fiscal consolidation, a continuing contractionary monetary policy, and trade tensions with the United States have impacted consumption and investment, while exports have proven resilient,” noted an IMF mission that visited Mexico at the end of last August.

Meanwhile, the IMF forecast better results for 2026. For the following year , Mexico’s GDP could grow 1.5% ; however, factors such as the tariff policy promoted by the United States will continue to impact global trade, affecting the country’s economy.

“Growth is expected to accelerate somewhat in 2026, although the impact of tariffs and trade uncertainty will continue to linger. Headline inflation is moderating and is expected to converge toward the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) 3% target in the second half of 2026,” he indicated.

It is worth remembering that Mexico’s GDP grew 0.6% in the second quarter of 2025 , driven mainly by the manufacturing and services industries , according to data from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

The IMF also estimated consumption growth, one of the driving forces of the Mexican economy, at 0.5% for this year. Meanwhile, it forecast a better outlook for 2026, projecting a 1.8% growth.

In this regard, the organization recommended expanding and diversifying trade alliances , which “would further strengthen Mexico’s position in global supply chains ,” it stated.

In the face of fiscal constraints , he argued that the country must address infrastructure gaps, particularly in the energy, transportation , telecommunications, and water sectors .

To mitigate the negative economic effects that persist worldwide, Mexico needs to “maintain trade openness to sustain growth and avoid measures such as import tariffs.”

“Given fiscal constraints, private sector participation will be critical, which will require improving the investment climate ,” the mission stated in its report.

Among other aspects, he recommended strengthening the rule of law and deepening integration with global trading partners.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum welcomed the IMF’s economic growth forecast of 0.2% to 1% for this year, which she said is a consequence of the strategy defined through Plan Mexico .

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El cargo Mexican economy defies tariffs; IMF projects growth in 2025 apareció primero en T21.

Under a tariff environment and a global economic reconfiguration, the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) has improved its growth forecast for the Mexican economy, increasing it from 0.1% to 0.4% for 2025.

After making no changes for three consecutive months, the agency indicated that inflation will remain at 4% at the end of the year , unchanged from its previous estimates.

It’s worth remembering that inflation has been declining for two consecutive months. Last July alone, the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI)  stood at  3.51% annually, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .

IMEF projections predict that the exchange rate will close the year at 19.70 pesos per dollar, lower than the estimate last July of 20.10 pesos per dollar.

Meanwhile, by 2026, the exchange rate would drop from 20.75 to 20.40 pesos per dollar, the agency’s analysis stated.

Another variable with a positive outlook was the expectation of the traditional public balance as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this year, considering a slight decrease of 3.9% in August; for next year, it stood at 3.5%.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) monetary policy rate estimate  anticipates it will be 7.25 percent in 2025, while the following year it will be 6.75 percent.

The Mexican economy’s growth estimates from the Mexican Ministry of Economy and Finance (IMEF) are in line with other projections, such as those of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) , which predicted a 0.2% increase in national GDP.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) update , the IMF indicated that Mexican GDP would also show positive signs for 2026, with a projected growth of  1.4% , despite the uncertainty arising from tariffs, driven by the United States.

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El cargo IMEF forecasts Mexican economic growth this year apareció primero en T21.