In 1991, Mexico was on the cusp of entering the rhythm of the global economy, starting with our country’s entry into the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which would motivate a constantly dynamic national economic dynamic.

In this context, June 11, 1991 is marked as the official start of TDR Transportes  (member of the  Top 100 of Autotransport® ), which was the result of the entrepreneurial vision of Miguel Ángel Bres Medina, who identified in transportation an opportunity to complement a family business related to the distribution of construction materials.

“What began as a small transportation operation evolved over time into a company with a national presence and a solid reputation within the industry,” TDR shared on the occasion of its anniversary.

During its early years, the company operated under the name Transportes Las Dos Rosas. As market and customer needs grew, TDR emerged, marking the beginning of a new phase focused on professionalization, growth, and specialization of its operations.

In a journey spanning more than three decades, TDR has faced various challenges that have tested its ability to adapt.

“One of the most important moments was the 2008 economic crisis, which prompted the organization to strengthen its strategy, diversify operations and develop new capabilities that are now part of its business strength,” they share.

Beyond operational growth, TDR has built a culture based on values ​​such as honesty, commitment, service and teamwork, principles promoted since its origins by its founder and which continue to guide the organization to this day.

Currently, TDR operates in various strategic locations throughout the country, offering logistics solutions supported by technology, operational safety, and a strong focus on employee development. The company maintains a clear vision for the future: to continue strengthening its capabilities to provide reliable, efficient, and secure service to its clients, while prioritizing the well-being of its employees and the positive impact it has on the communities where it operates.

“Today, after 35 years, TDR continues to move forward with the same purpose that has accompanied it since its beginnings: To Keep Mexico Moving,” they describe.

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El cargo TDR 35 years of dynamism with Mexico apareció primero en T21.

Mexico’s entry into the  Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in 1993 marked a new chapter for the country’s logistics, resulting in a port and economic reconfiguration by putting Mexico’s diplomatic and commercial relations with the nations of that region on the map.

The most important shift was not only the formal incorporation, but the fact that Mexico began to steer towards the countries of that economic bloc, which triggered a transformation in the way logistics chains were organized in the Pacific .

“Since we joined the Asia-Pacific framework in 1993, but especially since we turned our attention to Asia-Pacific, there has been a reconfiguration of logistics in the Pacific,” emphasized Sergio Ley, a full member of the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC) .

To put this shift into perspective, Ley shared that in the 1990s and early 2000s, the most important entry point for Asian products in Mexico was Ciudad Juárez.

“Which port received the most imports from Asia? I could tell you it was Manzanillo or any Pacific port, but no, the port that received the most goods from Asia was Ciudad Juárez,” the specialist pointed out in an interview with T21.

In the 1990s, Mexican logistics was characterized by a growing demand for services, driven by the then North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) , which came into effect in 1994, and cross-border trade. However, although the logistics infrastructure had improved—especially with road construction—it was still insufficient.

Ley recalled that from a logistical point of view,  the ships that came from Asia did not touch any Mexican port or did so sporadically , “so, we had to use the one in Long Beach, mostly, but also other North American ports, in addition to the train.”

With Mexico’s integration into the Asia-Pacific framework and the opening of embassies in the region, a reconfiguration of the entire area’s logistics network was spurred . “Now, we receive a significant number of ships in Mexican ports such as Lázaro Cárdenas, Manzanillo, Mazatlán, and also, to some extent, in Ensenada.”

At the same time, Baja California consolidated its position as a strategic manufacturing hub . In cities like Tijuana and Mexicali, raw materials from Asia were assembled and subsequently exported to the United States and other regions, Ley commented.

Currently, the state has a strong export and manufacturing focus.  The maquiladora sector reached record exports in 2025, with 390,972.9 million pesos (MXN) , representing a 14.7% increase compared to 2024, according to figures from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .

For Sergio Ley, the country’s logistical reconfiguration that began with Mexico’s integration into APEC will continue despite certain frictions in trade with the Asian region, “but I believe that this will be to some extent temporary because it is impossible for us to stop looking towards that side of the world ,” he explained.

It is worth remembering that Mexico implemented a series of diverse actions, such as the General Import and Export Tax Law (LIGIE) , which came into effect in January of this year, to collect tariffs on 1,463 categories of goods and services imported from nations with which the country does not have a trade agreement, including China, India, Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea.

One of the aspects Ley considered for further progress in the logistical integration of Mexico and APEC is that “ the world’s economic center of gravity has already shifted from the Atlantic to the Pacific . There is infinitely more business moving in the Pacific than in the Atlantic at this time,” he emphasized.

The 21 economies of the Asia-Pacific region that make up APEC represent approximately 60% of global GDP and concentrate about 50% of global trade, making it a commercially dynamic bloc.

Thus, the Asia-Pacific logistics reconfiguration is not merely an operational adjustment, but a profound redesign of global trade routes. By repositioning itself along this axis, Mexico is not only redefining its logistics, but also its role in the global economy .

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El cargo Mexico and APEC: the course correction that redefines Asia-Pacific logistics apareció primero en T21.

US President Donald Trump has once again raised the issue of the continuation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , suggesting he might let it expire in order to seek a new trade agreement, which would negatively impact US trade with the United States and disrupt supply chains.

It is worth remembering that the USMCA was negotiated during the first term of the current occupant of the White House and came into effect in July 2020, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) .

“It’s something that’s in progress. It expires in about a year, and we’ll let it expire, or maybe we’ll negotiate another agreement with Mexico and Canada,” Trump said at a press conference.

The US president asserted that Mexico and Canada, its main North American trading partners, have taken advantage of the United States, “like almost every other country,” and accused the previous administration, headed by Joe Biden, of incompetence.

At the conference, Trump defended his tariff policy , which, he pointed out, has caused automotive companies to return to the United States.

This is not the first time the US president has expressed his disagreement with the USMCA. On July 1, he called the trilateral trade agreement a “disaster.” “We are going to need the support of Congress to end this agreement, which is the worst in our history .”

Also, in October he raised the possibility of signing bilateral treaties with Mexico and Canada.

The review of the USMCA is scheduled for July 2026. Just last November,  Mexico’s Ministry of Economy (SE) concluded consultations on the review of this agreement , which took place during October of this year, and which served as  a space for direct dialogue with 30 productive sectors and with key actors in each of the 32 states of the country .

The trade agreement is valid for 16 years , and article 34.7 states that a review must be carried out six years after it was implemented, where the three countries will evaluate its functioning to see if it continues for another 16 years.

Should Trump’s recent threat materialize, Mexico’s trade with the United States would be affected, and there would be a realignment of supply chains, given a possible decrease in exports as a result of the provisions contained in the new trade agreement, since more than 80% of the country’s exports to the United States are protected by the USMCA with a zero tariff.

The accumulated figures up to August 2025 for the foreign trade of the northern neighbor confirm that Mexico remains its main trading partner , reaching a total of goods traded for 74 billion 396 million dollars (USD), surpassing Canada, which obtained 56 billion 590 million USD, and China, with 33 billion 405 million USD, according to the United States Department of Commerce .

Meanwhile, Mexican exports to the United States in August totaled $45.146 billion, an increase of 3.3% compared to the same month in 2024.

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El cargo Trump sets his sights on the USMCA again; he’s considering letting it expire and seeking a new agreement. apareció primero en T21.

“We started 42 years ago because we saw a need. My dad had the idea along with one of my brothers, since many companies were suffering from a lack of space to store their products and had to go far away to find places to store them,” recalls Luis Jorba Servitje, CEO of Frialsa, in an interview with T21.

The company was founded in 1983 amidst an adverse economic environment: devaluations, inflation, and a lack of long-term credit. Despite this, it found support from a group of shareholders who believed in the logistics model. “We had the support and confidence of the shareholders, who believed in the business model and contributed capital so that we could succeed ,” says Jorba Servitje.

The first plant was established in Cuautitlán, State of Mexico, and quickly doubled its capacity. This was followed by a strategic expansion into Villagrán, Guanajuato, a key region due to its agricultural focus, and later into Zamora, Michoacán, with the acquisition of a National Warehouses (ANDSA) facility. These moves marked the beginning of a growth trajectory that combined territorial vision with close ties to the productive sectors.

Growth with a logistical vision

Mexico offered fertile ground for the development of cold storage infrastructure. As a natural exporter of fruits and vegetables—particularly frozen ones—the country demanded modern facilities and efficient processes. However, it was trade liberalization that accelerated the transformation of the agri-food market. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) marked a turning point.

“That marked a turning point. The treaty opened up trade in meat, agricultural, bakery, and confectionery products; before, Mexico lacked the production and infrastructure to export many of those products,” Jorba states.

Frialsa understood the new cycle and responded with a more sophisticated model. From an initial focus on warehousing and inventory control, it evolved into a comprehensive logistics services platform that includes handling, contract manufacturing, distribution, last mile delivery, and advanced inventory management.

To continue reading the cover story of T21 magazine in its November 2025 edition, we invite you to review the digital version by clicking here .

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El cargo From cold to strategy: Frialsa’s smart expansion apareció primero en T21.

Mexico has proven it can assemble products with the same precision as the world’s most advanced factories. But it hasn’t proven it can design them. The gap between manufacturing and what has been called “mind-making”—between manufacturing and generating its own innovation—silently permeates the entire national economic model . “We are still a maquiladora country, and sadly, we will probably remain that way,” warned Samuel Peña during the Strategic Breakfast “USMCA: What’s next for Mexico in the Trump era?”, organized by GT+logistics and GT+plastics .

His diagnosis isn’t based on industrial nostalgia or pessimism: it’s based on data and recent history. For more than three decades, Mexico has strived to integrate into the global economy as a manufacturing platform, particularly for the United States market. Since joining the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1986 and signing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1992—and its subsequent launch in 1994—the country has woven a network of 13 trade agreements with 51 countries, which in theory were supposed to diversify its economic ties. In practice, however, 86% of foreign trade remains concentrated in the United States. This figure reveals that liberalization has not translated into true diversification, but rather a deepening of dependence .

Structural dependence and unfavorable exchange rate policy

The concentration of trade in a single partner is no small matter: it defines the country’s structural vulnerability. Exports represent around 30% of the Gross Domestic Product—some $450 billion—but are dominated by foreign corporations such as Ford , Volkswagen , Stellantis , LG, and Whirlpool , among others. They generate the majority of foreign sales and, therefore, repatriate profits to their parent companies in Detroit, Seoul, Munich, or Tokyo. Mexico operates as an efficient production platform, but with little control over technology, intellectual property, or the final destination of the generated value . Hence, the transition to mindfacturing is more than an aspirational rhetoric: it is a matter of economic sovereignty and real maneuverability in the face of international fluctuations.

This dependence becomes even more evident when observing the behavior of exchange rate policy. Peña Nieto was blunt in pointing out that maintaining an artificially strong peso has been a strategic error. “Having a cheap dollar is not synonymous with economic strength. It is affecting us profoundly,” he stated . With an appreciated exchange rate, Mexican exports lose competitiveness and domestic inputs become more expensive compared to imported ones. China and Korea have followed the opposite path: they have maintained weak currencies to boost their domestic industries and favor their exports, a policy that Mexico has not adopted despite the fact that a third of its economy directly depends on them. Peña Nieto even suggested that a gradual slide toward levels of 21 to 24 pesos per dollar would strengthen the national export industry without generating an inflationary crisis, as long as it was accompanied by productive measures.

The logic is clear: if Mexico wants to transition toward mind-manufacturing, it needs not only talent and technology, but also macroeconomic conditions that don’t reward imports and penalize local production . Today, the opposite is true. With a strong peso and an industrial base dependent on imported inputs, it’s cheaper to import components from abroad than to develop them domestically. This fuels a vicious cycle in which maquila thrives, but innovation stagnates.

Internal oligopolies and external pressure: the trade storm

Added to this macroeconomic environment is an internal structure that, far from fostering competition and innovation, tends to concentrate power and make strategic inputs more expensive.

This distortion of domestic prices not only affects large transnational corporations; it even more severely limits small and medium-sized enterprises that could integrate as higher-value-added suppliers into production chains. Instead of encouraging the development of new domestic technological capabilities, the oligopolistic environment forces companies to continue relying on imported components and to operate with narrow margins that inhibit investment in innovation. Once again, mindfacture is relegated to the background by a set of structural conditions that make it practically unviable .

In this context, the relationship with China takes on a strategic importance that cannot be ignored. Mexico maintains a nine-to-one trade deficit with that country: for every dollar exported—mostly food and copper—it imports nine dollars in manufactured goods . For years, this dynamic remained under the radar thanks to preferential access to the US market through NAFTA and later the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). However, the landscape is changing rapidly. With the new Donald Trump administration, tariff policies against China have tightened, and Washington has made it clear that it will demand that Mexico close the “back doors” that allow Chinese companies to enter the North American market from Mexican territory.

Peña anticipated that the 2026 revision of the USMCA will be one of the most pressured moments for Mexican trade policy in decades. The most likely scenario, he said, is the imposition of new controls, tariffs, and regulations that will limit the flexibility with which Mexico has operated until now. “We can forget about a free trade agreement per se ,” he warned , recalling that NAFTA went through gradual stages of tariff reduction between 1994 and 2009. This gradual process could be repeated, but in reverse: from an open regime to a more restrictive one, at a time when Mexico’s industrial structure is not prepared to absorb a shock of that magnitude without first strengthening its technological and productive base.

Nearshoring and alliances: conditional opportunity

The scenario of tariff pressure and adjustments to the rules of the trade game also coincides with a silent transformation in foreign investment flows. According to Samuel Peña, the arrival of new companies to Mexico has practically stopped. Most of the capital currently counted as foreign direct investment corresponds to reinvestment of profits or expansions of established operations . “There are no new companies arriving. They are waiting to see what happens with the USMCA,” he explained.

This strategic pause is not a sign of disinterest, but rather of caution. Multinational companies are carefully evaluating renegotiation scenarios, domestic economic policy signals, and logistics and energy conditions before committing fresh capital. Peña projected that this trend could continue until 2027, when there is greater clarity regarding the new trade framework. In other words, Mexico is going through a ” wait and see ” period, which could become an opportunity if it manages to articulate a coherent strategy to attract and retain quality investment.

In this context, the nearshoring phenomenon takes on a critical dimension. In theory, the relocation of production chains to North America represents a historic opportunity for Mexico. Its geographic proximity, network of trade agreements, and manufacturing base make it a natural candidate to absorb new production lines. However, as Peña Nieto warned, competing for these investments will not be easy. “We can’t compete with a state like Texas. It’s the eighth-largest economy in the world for a reason,” he noted .

The difference lies in the structural conditions: Texas has access to ample financing, a robust logistics infrastructure, and a clear regulatory framework. Mexico, on the other hand, operates with a concentrated financial system—72 banks, five of which account for 75% of the market—a limited logistics network, and high costs in strategic sectors such as energy and steel . These limitations mean that, even with the appeal of nearshoring , many companies prefer to wait or set up shop directly in the United States, taking advantage of tax incentives and legal certainty.

But this waiting period can also work in Mexico’s favor if used wisely. Peña emphasized that the gradual closure of the “back doors” for Chinese imports does not necessarily mean the end of the economic relationship with Asia . On the contrary, it could open a different era, based on strategic alliances, joint ventures , or acquisitions between Chinese and Mexican companies to maintain access to the North American market under new rules. This shift would require industrial vision and active public policy to facilitate technological and financial partnerships that currently do not exist on the necessary scale.

In essence, the message is clear: if Mexico doesn’t develop its own technological and innovation capabilities, nearshoring risks becoming a new wave of maquila, without substantial improvements in local value-added or strategic autonomy. Mindfacturing once again emerges as the guiding principle of any strategy that aims to go beyond simply being the workshop of North America.

Infrastructure, financing and taxation: the pending foundations

Any strategy to make the leap toward mind-manufacturing and capitalize on nearshoring must address, without hesitation, the structural backlog in infrastructure and energy . Peña recalled that during the last six-year term, “not a single kilometer of electrical transmission lines” was built, which has created bottlenecks for industrial development. Building an industrial park of just 50 hectares can entail investments exceeding 200 million pesos in electrical infrastructure alone. Unlike the United States, where there are more than 30 transmission companies competing for bids, Mexico requires the financing and construction of the necessary infrastructure, which discourages new developments.

Logistics is also no exception to this logic of lag. Major ports, such as Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas, are operating at the limit of their capacity. The highway network lacks efficient cross-country corridors connecting the Gulf of Mexico with the Pacific, and in many stretches, insecurity is an additional deterrent. “If you want to send a truck from Matamoros to Tijuana, there’s no way. You have to cross via the American highway,” Peña explained. This precarious logistics contrasts with Mexico’s aspirations to position itself as an advanced manufacturing hub integrated into global chains; without modern and reliable infrastructure, geographical advantages quickly fade.

Adding to this weakness is a financial and fiscal structure that concentrates power and restricts access to productive credit. Of the more than three million registered businesses in the country, barely 0.1% contribute 46% of tax revenue . Small and medium-sized enterprises, which should be the protagonists of a strategy of innovation and productive linkages, operate with limited access to financing and uninspiring tax burdens. Peña even suggested revising the tax structure to increase VAT and reduce income tax, thereby incentivizing the circulation of money in the productive economy and not directly penalizing value creation. At the same time, a highly concentrated banking system limits credit and raises rates for those outside large conglomerates, deepening the gap between large multinationals and the national productive fabric.

Looking at the whole picture – trade dependence on the United States, a tight exchange rate policy, internal oligopolies, a structural deficit with China, a pause in foreign investment, infrastructure lags, and a concentrated financial system – a clear pattern emerges: Mexico has built a robust manufacturing platform, but without the technological, institutional, and logistical foundation that would allow it to sustain a qualitative leap toward mindfacturing .

For Samuel Peña, the revision of the USMCA and the tightening of US trade policy should not be understood solely as threats, but as an inevitable catalyst for redefining the country’s industrial strategy. “Closing the door to China doesn’t mean isolating ourselves, but rather generating strategic partnerships,” he emphasized . In other words, the window of opportunity exists, but it won’t remain open indefinitely.

Mexico is at a crossroads. It can continue to strengthen its role as a maquiladora platform, passively adapting to new trade rules, or it can use this situation to reconfigure its integration into global value chains, investing in innovation, strengthening its local suppliers, improving its infrastructure, and creating macroeconomic conditions that reward domestic production. This isn’t about abandoning manufacturing—one of the pillars of its economy—but rather complementing it with technological capabilities, talent, and public policies that allow it to make the leap it has been postponing for decades.

Mindfacturing isn’t a rhetorical slogan: it’s the difference between remaining in a subordinate position or becoming an actor with greater strategic autonomy in an increasingly competitive and less predictable global environment. The clock has already started ticking, and the 2026 revision of the USMCA will mark one of the clearest deadlines for determining which way the balance is tipping .

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El cargo Mindfacture, Mexico’s pending leap in the Trump era apareció primero en T21.

Donald Trump , President of the United States, considered the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to be “very effective”; however, he accused his partners of “not respecting it,” and warned that it will soon be renegotiated to “adjust or terminate it.”

“It’s been very effective and continues to be very effective, but people have to respect it, and that’s been a problem. People haven’t respected it,” said the leader of our northern neighbor.

He recalled that the USMCA, which Trump himself negotiated during his first term, was a better deal than the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) , which he described as the worst trade agreement in the United States and “probably in the history of the world.”

In a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney , Donald Trump indicated that the USMCA, which he called “a transitional agreement,” is about to expire and will be “renegotiated very soon.”

It’s worth remembering that this review, which will take place in 2026, was stipulated by the three countries that make up this trade agreement.

Since beginning his second term as president of the United States, Trump has pursued a protectionist economic policy and launched a tariff war with several countries around the world, which he himself paused for 90 days.

At the meeting, held at the White House , Carney emphasized that the agreement “is the basis for broader negotiations. Some things are going to have to change.”

The USMCA, which replaced NAFTA, entered into force on July 1, 2020, and represented an update to the trade rules between the three member countries. It includes chapters on digital trade, intellectual property, the environment, and labor standards.

According to the Ministry of Economy (SE) , the USMCA is the best deal the region has ever had, since, to highlight some figures, it employs  17 million  people at the regional level, generates approximately  3.1 million dollars (mdd)  per minute and represents  30% of the world’s GDP .

In addition, it has strengthened the national economy, as well as  Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)  linked to the relocation of production lines in Mexico ( nearshoring ).

These figures reflect the importance of this trilateral agreement for the  North American region . Therefore, given its revision and the uncertainty caused by the United States’ tariff policy, it is essential that negotiators try to conduct the next negotiation on good terms, in which, as various analysts have reported, a tense atmosphere will prevail.

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El cargo Trump warns USMCA review will be to “adjust or terminate” it apareció primero en T21.

In the face of the threat by the president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump , to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Mexican products, which would especially affect the automotive and electronics industries, the global firm that offers trade data, CIAL Dun & Bradstreet , analyzed some challenges and opportunities for Mexico, within which it considered that the probability of applying tariffs is low due to the economic integration between both countries and its inflationary impact on its northern neighbor .

He indicated that Trump’s arrival to his second term occurs at a very particular moment for Mexico in terms of its local condition, due to the election of Claudia Sheinbaum with a qualified majority in Congress and that gives her the possibility of making constitutional changes without any restrictions. In addition to the decision to reform the Judicial Branch and the possible elimination of autonomous bodies , which is in the legislative process.

In the analysis Cial Insights: Economic and Financial Monitor, it was pointed out that Mexico’s economic context faces a fiscal deficit close to 6% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) , doubling in just a few years and being the highest since 1988; in addition to the fact that public debt is exceeding 50% of GDP.

Another element that was considered is that this year the Mexican economy slowed down significantly to just 1.3% , while in the United States the pace remains at an estimated 2.8% growth in 2024.

In this context, the company said that Donald Trump’s threats against Mexico are not new. In 2016, he said he would impose a 10% tariff if Mexico did not control its southern border to prevent the growing migration to the United States.

He also recalled that he applied tariffs on steel and aluminum for a time and proposed a review of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and from this emerged the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) , which he said was the best treaty for the United States in its history.

However, the US trade deficit with Mexico did not stop, and went from $123 billion in 2016 to $171 billion in 2020, his last year in office. He did not achieve his goal of reversing the deficit, although regional content in the automotive industry was raised to 70%, which was good for the region.

The analysis predicts that, in 2024, the trade surplus with the northern neighbor will be around 260 billion dollars (mdd) , and that Trump would start a trade war with China, which would lead to the ” nearshoring boom “, which would benefit Mexico, who today is the first supplier of goods to the United States.

CIAL Dun & Bradstreet pointed out that from 2000 to 2024, Mexican exports to the United States grew by an average of 5.3% annually, while Mexican imports from that country increased only 2.9% annually. Meanwhile, in the same period, Mexican exports to Canada grew by an average of 7.6%annually, compared to 5% for our imports from that country.

“Since the time of NAFTA, the great beneficiary in terms of foreign trade has been Mexico. This is one of the reasons why the United States is now assuming a threatening posture against Mexico, in an attempt to reverse this balance. It will be difficult because they are now highly integrated economies,” the document indicated.

Another point that the consulting firm considered is Mexico’s foreign trade with China, a country with which a growing trade deficit was reported from $4 billion in 2001 to $115 billion in 2024.

He stressed that our country’s trade balance with Europe has also deteriorated over time, as the Mexican deficit with that region went from $8.917 billion in 2000 to more than $50 billion in 2024. Mexican exports to that region grew by an average of 6.4% annually between 2000 and 2024, while imports grew by 7.1% annually.

“Mexico reports growing trade surpluses with our USMCA partners, while reporting growing deficits with other regions such as China and Europe. Donald Trump would seek to reverse this condition, for which he is threatening to impose tariffs of 25% on Mexico and 60% on China. In particular, he would impose a 100% tariff on vehicles exported from Mexico and, if necessary, up to 200%, in order to reduce the deficit and encourage North American companies to maintain their investments in the United States,” the firm estimated.

The study predicts that if Donald Trump’s threat to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico is realized , there are several entities in the country that would be affected , and recalled that the four largest exporters in the country are Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León and Baja California. In addition, the nine states that make up the northern part of the country represent almost 53% of total exports.

“There are 12 entities in which transportation equipment (automotive) is their main export segment, with a presence of around 60% on average of their total exports,” he stressed.

He pointed out that the sectors that would be affected include the computer and electronic equipment, transportation equipment, and the vehicle industry . He also stressed that Trump would implement “the largest deportation in history,” since it is estimated that there are between 14 and 15 million undocumented or illegal immigrants in the United States, of which between four and five million are Mexicans, although it is possible that these deportations will not be massive, given that the northern neighbor needs labor.

Among its conclusions, the company noted that the United States and Mexico are highly integrated in their productive activity, and currently, for the second consecutive year, Mexico is already the main supplier of goods to its northern neighbor .

He estimated that the probability of the United States applying 25% tariffs to Mexico is low, considering that the conflict is more with China, and the degree of integration between both economies. “Applying tariffs to Mexico could mean an increase in costs for consumers and, therefore, an inflation problem, with all that this entails.”

He indicated that after Trump takes power, “ we must monitor the decisions he makes and develop appropriate scenarios regarding the possible effects on the Mexican economy. This will also determine the position that the United States will take with respect to the review of the USMCA in 2026, taking into account that in Canada there is talk of excluding Mexico from this agreement.”

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El cargo Probability of tariffs on Mexico is low due to economic integration with the US: CIAL DUN & BRADSTREET apareció primero en T21.

Within the framework of the XIX Annual Convention of the Mexican Institute of Foreign Trade Executives (IMECE) , the specialist indicated that said mechanism offers technical information, and is made up of the business sector to work with the Ministry of Economy (SE) in the process of reviewing the trilateral trade agreement.

During his participation, he recalled that the SE requested to reactivate the Cuarto de Junto to prepare the preparatory work in said framework, and that it includes the integration of seven working groups; each of them will analyze specific aspects of the T-MEC, such as market access and rules of origin , and the one referring to the labor issue , among others.

He pointed out that the Cuarto de Junto has been in existence for more than 30 years and its objective is free trade agreements, so there are already previous experiences of other reviews and negotiations.

Judith Garza pointed out that in recent years, Mexico has become the main commercial partner of the United States , and added that since the war on the subject between the northern neighbor and China, our country has increased its participation with the United States, while the Asian nation has decreased it.

Meanwhile, at the analysis table Participation of the private industry in the T-MEC negotiating team (2026) , Fausto López , manager of International Treaties at Volkswagen of Mexico , recalled that the most challenging Joint Room was that of the T-MEC due to the threats from the United States to the Mexican automotive sector.

He said that what they are now seeking is to have an audit manual to avoid discrepancies and in the matter of electric vehicles they want a more flexible rule of origin. López considered that the success of the review of the T-MEC in 2026 will depend on the coordination of the Fourth Joint Committee with the government authority .

Humberto Jasso , Vice President of Foreign Trade of the National Agricultural Council (CNA) indicated that the importance of this mechanism is to “bring down” to a sector the issues that are inherent to it. In this sense, he gave as an example the structure of the Agro-Food Cuarto de Junto, which is headed by Juan Cortina Gallardo and has 30 subsectors, 50 productive chains and three allied organizations.

Ricardo Aranda, former general director of International Trade Disciplines at the SE and senior manager of government relations at the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry , said that he was present at the review of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) 2016-2017, and one of the aspects at that time was on the subject of labor rules, an issue that Mexico managed to fulfill with that commitment, which is why there has not been an “avalanche” of panels against our country.

In the review of the USMCA that will be carried out in 2026, it is necessary to be clear about the factors that affect each industry, he stressed and specified that it is important to have specific links so that they can make proposals on the issues that will be reviewed.

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El cargo Importance of the Cuarto de Junto in the review of the T-MEC apareció primero en T21.

Participating in the XIX Annual Convention of the Mexican Institute of Foreign Trade Executives (IMECE) , Larry Rubin , president of the American Society of Mexico , said that drug trafficking, migration and trade will be the main issues in the relationship between our country and the United States.

At the conference The Mexico-United States of America relationship for the period 2024-2030. Investment and trade , he said that both countries will have a dynamic and intense agenda starting January 21, 2025 , which, he considered, will be for the best, since despite the threats of President-elect Donald Trump , there is a “brotherhood” between the two nations.

During his speech, Rubin explained that the United States’ policy has changed, and pointed out that the United States will not encourage left-wing governments, as is the case in Mexico, something that Trump has made clear in his policy against Venezuela and Cuba.

In that sense, he said that our country will not match the new US government in the ideological sense , which will be somewhat complex, since Trump won the House of Representatives and the Senate. .

Regarding the central issues on the bilateral agenda, he assured that the review of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) , which he considered will be a renegotiation, will have harsh episodes, since there could be tariffs for our country.

“Trump’s style is like a father scolding and the punishment is the tariff,” he stressed, and said that in light of this, the two countries must work together. “What is wanted is for Mexico to change the policy of ‘hugs, not bullets,’” he said.

Regarding migration, he indicated that there have also been no results, so Trump will apply pressure and if Mexico cooperates, he estimated, there will be positive repercussions.

Larry Rubin emphasized that the Mérida Plan should be resumed, since it was an important security mechanism that benefited our country when it was implemented.

The specialist recalled Donald Trump’s threats to eliminate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) , but understood that it was impossible because, among other reasons, the United States does not have the labor force it needs.

These issues cannot be resolved by our northern neighbor alone, which is why it needs Mexico’s support, he said, and estimated that the outlook for business is encouraging.

The trade relationship between Mexico and the United States is very important in the regional context, since according to the Ministry of Economy , as of the second quarter of 2024, the northern neighbor remains the main investment partner in the country , concentrating 44% of total flows , which add up to 13,717 million dollars .

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El cargo Migration, Drug Trafficking, and Trade: Key Issues Shaping the Mexico-US Agenda apareció primero en T21.

Following President Claudia Sheinbaum ‘s announcement of investments in Mexico by at least four companies for around 20 billion dollars (mdd) , the global firm that offers commercial data, CIAL Dun & Bradstreet , analyzed some of the current administration’s economic goals, among which it considered the relocation of production lines ( nearshoring ) as one of the growth factors, although it pointed to public debt as a risk.

He indicated that Sheinbaum Pardo committed to promoting nearshoring by taking advantage of the trade relationship with the United States and Canada, countries that make up the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) .

In this sense, Mexico is the one that should benefit the most from this phenomenon due to the advantages it has: a strategic location, logistics production chains developed with the United States and qualified labor, among others.

In addition, the country is expected to report a trade surplus of $256 billion in 2024, a figure that would be historic “that has marked a clear change of direction since the validity of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) ,” said CIAL Dun & Bradstreet.

In its analysis, Cial Insights: Economic and Financial Monitor, highlighted that during this period, Mexican exports to the United States grew by an average of 8.3% annually , while imports from the United States grew by 5.7% annually .

Currently, Mexico is already the main exporter to its northern neighbor, so the new administration must “tread carefully” to carry out the review of the T-MEC in good terms, which will be in 2026,” the firm stated.

Another point that the company considered was the stability of energy prices , which is why the current government has proposed that the costs of electricity, domestic gas, gasoline, diesel, and others not increase in real terms during this six-year term.

It also stated that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the electricity industry fell by 6% annually on average during the previous six-year period . “At this time, this industry is still 27% below its 2018 production level. It needs to grow at high rates to recover and get out of this crisis,” the report highlighted.

CIAL Dun & Bradstreet, in its Economic Monitor section , Decline in Industrial Production , indicated that this sector is facing a slowdown in the economy, which could lead to national GDP growing only 1.2% this year, as projected by several financial institutions.

In this context, he noted that in August industrial production fell by 0.3% annually , which was its worst figure since the beginning of 2021, “after the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.”

“At the moment, the industrial sector is affected by the 4.1% annual decline in construction and the stagnation of manufacturing (only 0.7%). After growing 3.5% in 2023, the industrial sector would advance just 0.5% in 2024 and would remain stagnant in 2026 (0.4%). Bad numbers for this sector, which accounts for 30% of the national GDP,” he stressed.

Regarding the exchange rate, he recalled that on October 11, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) closed the day at 19.40 pesos per dollar, which represented a depreciation of 0.97% that week.

Following the approval of the judicial reform, the exchange rate has remained stable , even with a slight appreciation, and the estimate of 19 pesos per dollar is expected to be maintained at the end of 2024, although pressures are expected due to the elections in the United States, the company said.

In the Special Report section, interpretation of public debt , he explained that it increased by almost 6.8 trillion pesos between 2018 and 2024, and noted that this year it will be equivalent to 50.1% of GDP. He indicated that a public debt that exceeds 50% of GDP in the following years makes it one of the most important risk factors for the Mexican economy , to which are added the pressures on public finances.

This analysis comes after the uncertainty generated among investors by the reform of the Judicial Branch , as well as the expectations due to the recent change of government in Mexico, now headed by President Claudia Sheinbaum.

It also occurs in a context of moderate investment, an economy that is slowing down, as well as a weakening of internal and external demand, which have led BBVA Research to make downward forecasts of the growth estimate for 2024, from 2.5% to 1.2 percent .

It should be noted that on September 18, the  Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the United States Federal Reserve cut the funding rate by 50 basis points (bp) , leaving the rate between 4.75 and 5.00 points , which could affect Mexico due to the close trade relationship it has with the United States.

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El cargo Nearshoring could trigger Mexico’s economic growth; public debt is a risk factor: CIAL Dun & Bradstreet apareció primero en T21.