US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada has created uncertainty in the US economy and international trade.

Andrés Franco, general director of the Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (Comce) Northeast , explained the immediate and long-term effects that these measures could have on both countries.

He said that during his term in office, Trump has signed 82 presidential orders , 23 of which affect foreign trade.

In this regard, since the implementation of the tariffs, there has been a drop in the US consumer confidence index , suggesting a widespread fear of the increase in the costs of essential products. Companies such as Target and Best Buy have already warned that their prices will rise due to the higher cost of imported goods from Mexico and Canada.

The executive pointed out that products such as vehicles, auto parts, avocados , among others,   will be the most affected.

According to Comce Noreste, an average family in the United States could see an annual increase of up to three thousand dollars in their spending on food and appliances.

In the case of the automotive industry, a vehicle manufactured in Mexico and sold in Texas could increase its price from $36,000 to $42,000 due to the new tariffs.

“American consumers will feel these increases in their daily lives. A car assembled in Mexico could cost up to $6,000, and gasoline imported from Canada would cost between 20 and 40 cents more per gallon,” Franco explained.

He also noted that the impact on financial markets was not long in coming, with the US stock market falling by 2.4% after the tariffs came into effect.

At the border, uncertainty led companies to advance exports before the deadline , so at the Nuevo Laredo customs there were lines of up to 14 kilometers of trucks seeking to cross before the application of tariffs, however, after their implementation, many exporters suspended shipments awaiting possible changes in trade policy.

“We saw lines of up to 14 kilometers at the Nuevo Laredo customs in the previous weeks, with companies trying to get ahead of the tariffs coming into effect. Yesterday, after the announcement, many suspended exports awaiting clarity on the measure,” Franco explained.

Example of an affected import

To better understand the impact of tariffs, Armando Guerra, director of Commercial Intelligence, presented a practical case on the import of computers from Mexico to the United States.

Assuming that a Mexican company sends a truck full of computers with an invoice value of $100,000 to Houston, Texas , the cost of transportation and insurance to customs in Laredo, Texas, is $5,000, and the cost from Laredo to Houston is $3,000.

Prior to the imposition of tariffs, these computers entered the country without paying taxes thanks to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (T-MEC), however, with Trump’s new executive order, the tariff is calculated on the customs value (that is, the value of the merchandise plus the transportation costs to customs).

“The 25% tariff is calculated on 105 thousand dollars (100 thousand of invoice value plus five thousand of transport to customs), which is equivalent to an additional payment of 26 thousand 250 dollars,” explained Guerra.

In some cases, if the merchandise contains inputs originating in the United States, these may be excluded from the calculation of the tariff.

For example, if $20,000 of the $100,000 corresponds to components manufactured in the neighboring country, the tax would apply only to the remaining $80,000, however, this requires additional procedures to prove the origin of the inputs.

“This increase directly affects Mexico’s competitiveness, since other countries such as Korea or Japan will continue to export computers to the United States without tariffs, which could displace Mexican companies from the market,” Guerra warned.

Strategies and alternatives for Mexico

Faced with this situation, businessmen and analysts have begun to explore strategies to mitigate the impact. One option is lobbying with the most affected states , mainly Texas, which receives 30% of Mexican imports.

“It is not just a commercial issue, but a political one. The strategy will be to work with the Republican states most affected so that they themselves exert pressure in Washington. If the American consumer begins to feel the effects, there may be changes in the tariff policy,” Franco explained.

Another alternative is to diversify markets .

Currently, 83% of Mexican exports are destined for the United States, making Mexico highly vulnerable to this type of measures, but the country has 14 free trade agreements with 50 nations, which opens the possibility of expanding exports to other markets, such as Europe and South America.

“Mexican companies are already exporting to more than 15 or 20 countries in Latin America and Europe. With the right analysis, we can identify which countries have specific demand for our products and develop new commercial strategies,” Guerra said.

Meanwhile, the Mexican export sector remains on alert, monitoring the evolution of the trade balance and the impact on supply chains.

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El cargo Comce Noreste analyzes the impact of tariffs on Mexico-US trade apareció primero en T21.

It’s a fact! The imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexican imports by the administration of Donald Trump, president of the United States, shook the transportation and logistics sector on the northern border of Mexico on Tuesday, generating uncertainty at crossings and affecting the operations of transporters and customs agents. 

Carlos Fernández, president of the Association of Cargo Transporters of Nuevo Laredo (ATC) and member of the National Executive Council of the National Chamber of Cargo Transportation (Canacar) , described the situation as a severe blow to the region. 

“The impact here is brutal because all the cargo arriving via Highway 85 to Nuevo Laredo is international cargo. The amount unloaded in Nuevo Laredo is minimal,” explained Fernández. 

Manu el Díaz, president of Supply Chain de México and foreign trade advisor, said that many companies have chosen to stop their shipments until there is greater clarity . However, he explained that, although those with essential merchandise have already begun to pay tariffs, accepting the cost as part of their strategy to maintain the flow of trade, this measure could trigger extra costs for storage. 

“Companies are waiting to see what happens. Some have stopped shipments, but others have decided to pay the tariff because maintaining detained inventories ends up being more expensive,” he explained. 

Fernandez warned that the true scope of the measure will depend on the duration of the tariffs and how the market reacts. 

For his part, Díaz pointed out that these tariffs could lead to structural changes in bilateral trade ; among the possible scenarios, he mentions the transformation of the T-MEC into an agreement exclusively between Mexico and the United States, leaving out Canada. 

“In 10 days we will see how things evolve, but the most likely scenario is that selective tariffs will be imposed and that the USMCA will, in practice, become a bilateral agreement,” he said. 

Díaz said that the imposition of tariffs will have an inflationary impact on finished products, estimated at between 7% and 8% . This is due to additional costs in marketing, logistics, brands and patents, and although the increase does not reach the total 25% of the tariff, it does represent a significant blow to companies and consumers. 

“The problem is not only the tariff, but how it will be reflected in the final consumer. We will not see a 25% impact on prices, but at least 7% or 8% due to the cost structure of marketing and logistics,” the specialist explained. 

Solutions?

The Mexican government has decided to respond with moderation, a stance that has drawn criticism but could prevent a more serious trade escalation, said Manuel Diaz. 

Some voices suggest imposing mirror tariffs in retaliation, but Díaz warns that this would only make essential products that Mexico needs to import more expensive. 

“I do not agree with mirror tariffs. They only make products more expensive that we need to buy anyway, and the poorest people would end up paying that cost. We do not have the muscle for a one-on-one war,” he stressed. 

For its part, the logistics and transport sector, when tariffs were still a “threat” from Trump, and had not been approved, was already beginning to take preventive measures. 

Cross-border solutions provider Averitt highlighted the importance of strengthening supply chains through strategic warehousing , offering inventory relocation as an alternative to mitigate the impact of tariffs.  

Faced with this situation, some companies have begun to explore storage options at strategic points within the United States to ensure the continuity of their operations and avoid additional costs at border crossings. 

From the logistics side, Eduardo Chaim, commercial director of VAX Solutions , underlined the volatility of cross-border trade. 

“Uncertainty and tension continue to affect the sector. It is essential to act quickly and anticipate changes, analyzing how to diversify operations and adapt to the new scenario,” said Chaim. 

According to their analysis, cargo movements have shown significant fluctuations in recent weeks. 

“My clients are ordering the same number of services, but they order them in one week instead of distributing them throughout the month. So the warehouses have increased inventory, the flow of requirements is much denser in a single period and then it is very free,” he explained. 

Carlos Fernández also indicated that the measure is already affecting investment projects , however, he stressed that it is still too early to evaluate whether the daily flow of trade will undergo a drastic change. 

Regarding the Mexican government’s reaction, Fernández considered that President Claudia Sheinbaum’s stance is more oriented towards a political message than towards concrete measures for the sector. He said that the priority should be the generation of a strategic plan with the key actors. 

Industry stance 

For his part, Israel Delgado, president of the northwest region of Canacar, commented through his social networks that transport companies must adapt and evolve to any situation . 

The Mexican Chamber of the Construction Industry (CMIC)  said that the application of US tariffs creates uncertainty and could negatively impact various economic sectors in the country.   

“Mexico and the United States have built a close and complementary trade relationship, supported by the USMCA. Any measure that alters this balance must be reviewed based on the mechanisms for dialogue and dispute resolution contemplated in the treaty itself,” he said.

He said that the stability and competitiveness of both countries depend on cooperation and the strengthening of their value chains , and that tariffs not only affect Mexico and Canada, but also American companies integrated into the region’s value chains and, above all, American consumers.   

They therefore trust in the Mexican Government’s ability to promote a solution that will mitigate the effects of this decision , protecting economic development, productive investment and employment in the country. 

“We are joining forces with the productive sector and our authorities, reiterating our willingness to collaborate in building strategies that strengthen Mexico’s competitiveness in international trade,” he said. 

In this regard, he said that they will continue to monitor the evolution of the issue, ” convinced that dialogue and cooperation will continue to be the pillars of the relationship between both nations .” 

For now, the sector remains on tenterhooks, awaiting trade and political adjustments that will define the true scope of the new tariff scenario. “ We are frozen with the news and little by little we will see the effect of the measure ,” concluded Fernández. 

By Karina Quintero / Jennifer Galindo / Evangelina del Toro

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