Luis de la Calle, CEO and founding partner of De la Calle Madrazo Mancera , analyzed the commercial challenges and opportunities that Mexico will face in the coming years , highlighting the country’s economic slowdown and possible US tariff policies under the presidency of Donald Trump.

In his presentation at the 2025 Economic Outlook Seminar organized by the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM) , De la Calle noted that the Mexican economy is experiencing a slowdown , whose main driver, investment, has been affected.

“We thought 2024 would be a difficult year, but 2025 looks like it will be too,” he said.

He said this represents a major challenge for Mexico’s economic growth, as investment has been a fundamental pillar in previous years.

On the other hand, he addressed the trade policies that Donald Trump could implement during his presidency and identified tariffs proposed by the president-elect that will impact trade relations.

First, the tariffs conditioned on cooperation on migration and fentanyl that Trump has suggested imposing if Mexico and Canada do not cooperate.

“This tariff is not credible in the long term. It is not possible for the United States to impose tariffs only on Mexico and Canada, since both are key trading partners,” he said.

Despite this threat, the analyst believes that both countries, Mexico and Canada, would collaborate on these issues, which would make the proposed tariffs not have a lasting impact.

The specialist also analyzed the role of China in trade between the United States and Mexico , since, although Mexico has increased its imports from China, this increase has been marginal compared to other countries such as Vietnam.

“The growth of Chinese imports to Mexico has been limited, which means that it cannot be said that Mexico is acting as a platform for China,” said De la Calle.

Despite this, he stressed the importance of Mexico properly managing its trade relationship with China to avoid problems arising from US tariff policies.

De la Calle suggested that Mexico should adopt a policy of “ economic intelligence ” to efficiently manage investments coming from China and ensure that products manufactured in Mexico do not face additional tariffs from the United States.

He also recommended that Mexico and Canada maintain active collaboration on security and trade issues with the United States to avoid conflicts and trade retaliation.

“The bond market will be the one that disciplines governments in the coming years,” he said.

He stressed that financial pressures, driven by the interest rate differential between Mexico and the United States, could be a determining factor in the economic policy of both countries in the short and medium term.

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