Despite the uncertainty over the United States tariff policy, in March 2025 Mexico’s total exports reached 55.527 billion dollars (mdd) , which represented an increase of 9.6%  compared to the same month in 2024, after having fallen by 2.9% in February last year, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced this Monday .

According to these figures, the value of Mexican merchandise exports reached its best March and first quarter on record, despite threats of tariffs from its northern neighbor, which are currently on hold for 90 days.

In its most recent report on Mexico’s Merchandise Trade Balance (BCMM) , the agency detailed that the increase in exports was the result of a 9.7% increase in non-oil exports and a 7.1% increase in oil exports.

Within non-oil exports, those directed to the United States increased by 9% and those channeled to the rest of the world increased by 13.7 percent .

In the third month of the year, exports of manufactured products reached $49.99 billion , representing a 10% annual increase.

The most significant increases were observed in exports of machinery and special equipment for various industries with 50.2% , mining and metallurgy products with 31.9% , metal products for domestic use with 11.2% , professional and scientific equipment with 11% , as well as automotive products with 6.2% at an annual rate, the latter derived from increases of 6.5% in sales to the United States and 4% in those directed to other markets.

In March 2025, oil exports were valued at US$2.173 billion . This amount included US $1.654 billion in crude oil sales and US $519 million in exports of other petroleum products.

In turn, agricultural and fishing exports reached 2.3 billion dollars , a figure that implied an annual reduction of 2.8 percent .

During the first quarter of this year, the value structure of merchandise exports was manufactured goods with 89.8% , petroleum products with 3.9% , agricultural goods with 4.4% and non-petroleum extractive products with 1.9 percent .

Meanwhile, in the first three months of 2025, the value of total exports totaled $149.253 billion , representing an annual growth of 4 percent .

Imports also on the rise

In March 2025, the value of merchandise imports was $52.085 billion , representing an annual increase of 7.1% , revealed INEGI. This figure was the result of an 8% increase in non-oil imports and a 6.3% decrease in oil imports.

Inegi detailed that imports of consumer goods amounted to seven thousand 051 million dollars , which meant an annual decrease of 1.2 percent .

For its part, intermediate goods were imported for a value of 40,389 million dollars , 9.7% higher than that reported in March 2024. Meanwhile, imports of capital goods reached 4,646 million dollars , an annual decrease of 1.3 percent .

In the first quarter of 2025, the value of total imports was $148.156 billion , representing a 1.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

Inegi indicated that in the first three months of this year the value structure of imports was made up of intermediate goods with 77.2% , consumer goods with 13.6% and capital goods with 9.2 percent .

Trade balance

According to INEGI (National Institute of Statistics and Geography), in March 2025, Mexico had a  trade surplus of $3.442 billion . This balance compares with the $2.212 billion surplus reported last February.

The increase in the trade balance between February and March was due to an increase in the surplus in the non-oil products balance and a smaller deficit in the oil products balance.

It’s worth remembering that the World Bank (WB) lowered its economic growth forecast for Mexico from 1.5% to 0% for this year in response to the escalation of tariffs by the United States.

Along the same lines, the  International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated a 0.3% contraction  in Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which could lead to a recession in the country this year.

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