Mexico could have an economic growth of 1% in 2026 , which would mean a decrease from the 1.2% proposed by Grupo Financiero BASE in a previous review, as explained by Gabriela Siller, director of Economic Analysis of this institution.

In the webinar “Economic Outlook, GDP Estimate for the First Quarter of 2026” , the specialist considered that, in a pessimistic scenario, the country’s economic growth would be 0.60%, and in an optimistic environment it would advance 1.45%, derived from various factors, including the economic spillover from the World Cup.

The decline in the three groups of economic activities – primary, secondary and tertiary – which contributed to the 0.8% quarterly decrease in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26) gives signs of what he called a “stagnation trap” , caused by the weakening of institutions, increased informality, a drop in fixed investment and a decline in productivity.

“The quarterly drop in GDP was indeed sharp, and although we expect a rebound in the second quarter, this would be largely due to the World Cup, which we believe will add 0.15 percentage points to GDP through tourism and additional consumption,” he explained.

The analyst considered that the low growth of the Mexican economy is not a temporary situation, but a structural one , which is reflected in a high rate of informality in employment that, as of last March, stood at 54.85 percent.

Regarding private consumption , which is one of the indicators of GDP, Siller explained that in 2025 this sector closed with an increase of 1.20%, the lowest since 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. “This year consumption started off on the wrong foot, with a drop of 1.55% compared to December 2025.”

By 2026, the financial institution forecasts that private consumption will grow between 1.8% and 2.2% , driven by the World Cup and a greater number of tourists arriving in Mexico for the sporting event.

Gross fixed investment ( machinery and equipment for the production of goods and services) also declined at the start of 2026. According to figures presented by Siller, this indicator fell 14% compared to 2024, when it reached its historical peak. He noted that in 2025, gross fixed investment decreased by 6.5%, and the projection for 2026 is a further decline of 2%.

“There weren’t two consecutive years with declines, something we hadn’t seen since 2019, when Mexico was in a slight recession, and 2020 due to the pandemic,” he emphasized.

Regarding Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Mexico, he noted that although historical high levels have been reached, it should be considered that a large percentage has been for reinvestment.

At the close of 2025, Mexico received $40.871 billion in FDI, which represented a growth of 10.8% compared to the FDI received in 2024, when it was $36.872 billion, according to figures from the Ministry of Economy .

According to Siller, 67.65% of FDI in 2025 was for reinvestment of profits , 14.30% intercompany accounts , and 18.05% was for new investments .

Regarding the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , the specialist said that, although there is a lot of uncertainty, “I think that in the end it will not end badly, unless there are political issues that stop this trade relationship.”

On another topic, he specified that since last year, computer equipment has been Mexico’s top export. “If this product hadn’t grown so much last year, at a rate of 144%, Mexican exports would have fallen by 0.54 percent.”

“But there are several risks. Computer equipment is not a long-term guarantee. To begin with, Mexico is not the main supplier of this product to the United States; that distinction belongs to Taiwan. In fact, for many months we were the main supplier, but Taiwan has now overtaken us. Taiwan accounts for 45% of total U.S. imports of this product, while Mexico accounts for 31%,” he stated.

According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , Mexican exports totaled 70 billion 727 million dollars (mdd) in March 2026 , a growth of 27.7% compared to the same month of 2025.

Regarding inflation, he estimated that it will close this year at 4.2 percent . “Inflation was already expected last year. The truth is that Mexico was fortunate with the reduction in non-core inflation, because we know that non-core inflation is very volatile; even more so if we add factors such as public insecurity in Mexico, which has reduced fruit and vegetable harvests, increasing their price. On the other hand, the increase in energy prices due to the war in Iran is also a latent threat; this has caused consumer inflation to rise in Mexico,” he emphasized.

It is worth remembering that inflation in Mexico stood at 4.59% at an annual rate in March 2026 , driven by a rise in agricultural products and services such as air transport, according to data from Inegi.

According to Banco BASE’s estimates, the Mexican economic outlook is not encouraging, although there are indicators showing a slow recovery that could improve the situation in the second quarter of the year.

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El cargo Banco BASE remains cautious regarding Mexico’s GDP growth outlook apareció primero en T21.

The Mexican economy could grow by 1.6% this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated , which would mean a gradual recovery amid a context marked by adjustments in public finances, high interest rates, an adverse international trade environment and geopolitical conflicts such as the one in the Middle East.

According to the World Economic Outlook report , the international organization indicated that Mexico will experience a slight economic recovery in 2026 after less dynamism in 2025.

By 2027, it projected a better environment for the Mexican economy, which could grow by 2.2% , but remaining cautious about an uncertain economic outlook, stemming from trade barriers and the conflict in the Middle East “which significantly counteracts favorable factors, due to its impact on commodity markets, inflation expectations and financial conditions.”

The IMF’s projections remain below the estimates of  Mexico’s Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) , which forecasts growth of between 1.8% and 2.8% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP); while for 2027 it estimates that it will be between 1.9% and 2.9%, supported by consumption, employment and public and private investment in strategic sectors.

Under this scenario, the federal agency has indicated that the Mexican economy will resume a more dynamic trajectory in 2026 and 2027.

However, some indicators, which serve as a barometer for the Mexican economy, show no recovery. In this regard, although the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP), prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , anticipated a 0.2% monthly increase in consumption for February 2026 and a 2.1% annual increase, Mexican household spending continues to be cautious.

And the global economy?

The IMF report estimated 2.3% growth for the US economy in 2026 and 2.1% for next year. For Canada , it forecasts 1.5% growth this year and 1.9% in 2027. China is projected to grow by 4.4% in 2026 and 4% in 2027.

The international organization  stressed that the international outlook remains subject to  risks and uncertainty , due to tensions in the Middle East and their potential effects on energy and financial markets, and therefore projected that the global economy will grow 3.1% this year and 3.2% in 2027 , below the average observed in the last two years (in 2025 alone it was 3.4%).

The forecast for 2026 has been revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points, and the forecast for 2027 shows no changes compared to the update of January 2026.

“The downward revision to 2026 is mainly due to disruptions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, offset in part by the carryover effect of recent positive data and reduced tariff rates,” the report stated.

The IMF considered that geopolitical tensions could worsen further , potentially leading to an outbreak of internal political tensions.

“The factors of political tension can be complicated by changes in trade policies and other international policies. Regardless of how the geopolitical situation evolves, trade disputes could reignite,” he stressed.

The IMF report comes against a backdrop of rising commodity prices and more restrictive financial conditions that are testing global trade and economic resilience.

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El cargo Amid global tensions, the IMF forecasts slight growth for the Mexican economy in 2026. apareció primero en T21.

The Global Business Confidence Opinion Indicator (IGOEC), prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , stood at 48.4 points in March 2026, marking 13 consecutive months below the threshold of 50 units , reflecting a discouraging outlook regarding business perception.

According to figures from the Monthly Business Opinion Survey (EMOE), the IGOEC fell 0.4 points in its monthly measurement , while at an annual rate it fell 0.9 units in the third month of the year.

In the reference month, two of the four industries in the Business Confidence Indicator (BCI) registered increases , with construction showing the largest increase, rising 1.3 points compared to last February, reaching a level of 47.8. Within this sector, the appropriate time to invest was the component that showed the greatest increase, rising 2.7 points on a monthly basis.

During March, the Trade Confidence Index (ICE) rose 0.1 points compared to the previous month, reaching 48.8 points. The country’s future economic outlook was the best-performing component during the period, increasing by 1.8 points month-over-month.

The ICE for manufacturing industries was 47.8 points, 0.5 units less than in February 2026. The monthly behavior of the indicator showed declines in its five components, with the most favorable time to invest being the largest decline (0.7 points).

Meanwhile, the ICE for private non-financial services fell 0.9 points in March 2026 compared to February, settling at 48.5 points. The only component with positive performance was the ” opportune time to invest ,” registering a 0.5-point increase month-over-month.

All four IGOEC indicators fell below the 50-point threshold, reflecting pessimism in business confidence during the cycle, in a global economic environment where uncertainty still prevails, stemming from unilateral trade decisions and geopolitical tensions such as those in the Middle East.

According to Inegi, the IGOEC and the ICE present the opinion of business executives on the economic situation of the country and their companies, so knowing the level of confidence of businessmen influences the perception of integrity and ability of a company to meet its objectives, as well as the decision to invest.

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El cargo Mexican business confidence navigates uncertainty during March apareció primero en T21.