The industrial market in Mexico began 2026 with mixed signals, but with the northeast consistently leading the way in inventory absorption and growth. According to Pablo Quezada , CEO of Datoz , this region has not only grown above the national average in recent years, but has done so with solid demand fundamentals, not solely due to speculation .

During the first quarter of the year, the country’s industrial inventory approached 1.2 billion square feet . However, understanding its evolution requires going beyond the aggregate figure.

“In real estate, location is everything,” the executive explained in an interview.

In that sense, the northeast, with key markets such as Monterrey, Saltillo and Reynosa, has registered an average growth of close to 7% in the last five years, above the 5% observed in other regions such as the Bajío, the central or the northwest.

One of the most relevant findings is that this growth is supported by demand. Through a comparative analysis of cumulative absorption and inventory, Datoz found that the Northeast has a ratio close to 30% , compared to 20% for other industrial regions.

This indicates that real estate development in this area responds, to a greater extent, to real market needs.

“This is not mere speculation. In relative terms, there has been more demand than in other regions,” Quezada stated.

This stability is also reflected in the composition of new developments. Unlike other areas of the country, where speculative construction can exceed 80%, in the northeast it represents around 70%. The remainder consists of build-to-suit projects , meaning developments tailored to a specific tenant, suggesting a more cautious approach on the part of developers.

Currently, the Northeast is in a favorable phase of the real estate cycle for renters, with higher levels of availability. However, this trend is beginning to change.

“The availability rate is already showing signs of adjustment and could begin to decline in the coming quarters,” Quezada explained.

This behavior contrasts with other regions such as the northwest, where the cycle has not yet reached its peak.

According to the specialist, this adjustment is a natural market reaction, where developers begin to moderate the pace of construction in response to signs of oversupply, which helps to maintain the balance of the sector.

The major obstacle: energy and infrastructure

Despite its dynamism, growth in the Northeast faces structural limitations, particularly in the energy sector. The lack of sufficient infrastructure to support industrial projects , especially manufacturing, has become a factor that could hinder new investment.

“There are projects that simply don’t get off the ground because there’s no energy available,” Quezada warned.

This problem not only involves the construction of new plants, but also the development of transmission networks, which requires time and large investments.

Within the northeast, states like Nuevo León and Coahuila concentrate much of the activity. In contrast, Tamaulipas maintains more moderate growth, partly due to strong competition from Monterrey as an industrial hub.

“Monterrey is a formidable competitor. Many companies that could set up shop in border cities end up choosing this city because of its scale and productivity,” he explained.

However, markets such as Reynosa, Matamoros, or Nuevo Laredo remain attractive to companies that prioritize strategic location and proximity to the United States.

Contrary to the perception of a slowdown, Datoz believes that nearshoring still has room to grow in Mexico. The relocation of supply chains responds to structural changes in global trade and to an increasingly demanding consumer in terms of delivery times.

“The trend isn’t going to stop. Beyond geopolitics, it’s the consumer who is driving closer supply chains,” Quezada noted.

In this context, the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) could also play a key role. While it generates uncertainty in the short term, its conclusion could trigger new investments by offering greater certainty to the markets.

Outlook 2026

Although the beginning of the year showed lower absorption levels than in previous periods, the outlook is positive. Datoz anticipates a gradual recovery as the year progresses, supported by a historically upward trend in demand for industrial space.

“The behavior is not linear, but the trend is clear. We expect the market to recover gradually in the coming quarters,” he emphasized.

Comment and follow us on LinkedIn:  @Jennifer Galindo  /  @GrupoT21

El cargo Northeast leads the industrial real estate market: Datoz apareció primero en T21.