Mexican business confidence remained unchanged in August 2026 compared to last July , according to the results of the Global Business Confidence Opinion Indicator (IGOEC), which was  48.2 points .

According to data released Tuesday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the IGOEC registered a drop of 1.1 points year-on-year.

With this latest observation, the indicator has remained below the 50-point threshold for 18 consecutive months , reflecting a pessimistic business environment.

In August 2026, the Business Confidence Indicator (BCI) for  manufacturing industries  stood at 48.1 points, representing a 0.1 point increase compared to July but a 1.2 point decrease year-on-year. Within the BCI, the component that showed the best performance was the “opportune time to invest,” with a 1.4 point increase month-on-month. Year-on-year, all five components of the BCI declined.

The  Construction Construction Index (ICE)  was 47.5 units in August. This represents a 0.4-point increase compared to the previous month and a 1.3-point increase year-over-year. The “opportune time to invest” component performed best, rising 3 points month-over-month and 3.9 points year-over-year.

Meanwhile, the  Trade Confidence Index (ICE) fell 0.3 points compared to the previous month, settling at 48 units. Year-on-year, it dropped 0.5 points. Two of its five components declined compared to last July, with the country’s current economic situation showing the largest decrease at 1.1 points per month, while the company’s future economic situation saw the greatest year-on-year decline (-1.9 points).

In the reference month, the  Private Non-Financial Services Index (ICE)  rose 0.1 points compared to July 2016 but fell 1.8 points year-on-year to 48.6 points. Three of its components showed a negative monthly trend; the optimal time to invest increased by 2.2 points. Meanwhile, all five of its components declined year-on-year.

Within the ICE of private non-financial services, the transport, postal and storage sector stood at 47.4 points  in August 2026, which meant 3 units less at an annual rate.

The IGOEC is the weighted average of the confidence indicators of the manufacturing, construction, trade and private non-financial services sectors, prepared from the Monthly Business Opinion Survey (EMOE).

The results for August 2026 showed a monthly stagnation in business confidence, with structural pessimism reflected in remaining below the 50-point threshold, although with positive signs in the perception of investment opportunities.

Manufacturing orders are progressing

In August 2026, the Manufacturing Orders Indicator (IPM) registered a monthly growth of 2.1 points , reaching 52.2 units with seasonally adjusted data, thus remaining, for the third consecutive month, above the threshold of 50 points, reported Inegi and the  Bank of Mexico (Banxico) .

In its annual measurement, the indicator also maintained a positive performance by increasing by 3.1 points.

Within the sector, orders advanced 6.7 points month-on-month and 4.5 points compared to August 2025; production increased 1.5 points month-on-month and 8.8 points year-on-year. In the eighth month of the year, total employment rose 0.3 points month-on-month and 0.6 points year-on-year. Timeliness in the delivery of inputs from suppliers registered an increase of 0.3 points month-on-month and a decrease of 1.7 points year-on-year; while input inventories fell 4.1 points month-on-month and 2.8 points year-on-year.

By subsector groups, the one that showed the greatest annual increase was computer equipment, electronic accessories and electrical appliances with 12.4 points; meanwhile, transport equipment was the one with the greatest decrease with 3 units at an annual rate.

According to Banxico, knowing the Manufacturing Orders Indicator, which is built from the results of the Monthly Business Opinion Survey, allows for a preliminary view of economic activity in Mexico.

An increase in the IPM suggests that companies are receiving more orders and producing more.

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The drop in the price of some agricultural products, such as tomatoes, essential in the Mexican diet, influenced the slowdown in inflation in the first half of July 2026, which stood at 3.10% at an annual rate ; however, the cost of air transport continues to put pressure on the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

“The year-on-year variation slowed down for seven consecutive fortnights, reaching its lowest point since the end of 2020,” explained  Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (BX+)  in an analysis.

The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported that the  core inflation index  —which excludes goods and services with high volatility or whose prices do not respond to market conditions—  rose 0.16% on a bi-weekly basis . Within this index, merchandise prices increased 0.11% and service prices rose 0.20%.

“The core index accelerated slightly and remains close to 4 percent. Within that index, the merchandise sector rebounded from its lows of April last year,” BX+ noted.

Meanwhile, the  non-core price index  —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations—  fell 0.23% on a bi-weekly basis . Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices dropped 1.50% , while energy and regulated tariff prices rose 0.03%.

The products with the largest price increases in the first half of July were air transportation (12.44%) and package tour services (6.22%), increases associated with the World Cup. Other products with price hikes during this period included oranges (6.02%), computers (4.52%), and potatoes and other tubers  (1.39%).

Meanwhile, the products with the greatest price decrease during the cycle were tomatoes with 13.18%, serrano peppers with a decrease of 5.17%, tomatillos with 3.24%, avocados with a drop of 2.59%, and LP domestic gas with 0.50% every two weeks.

According to BX+, the decline in the bi-weekly variation “was due to a further drop in agricultural products , mainly fruits and vegetables, within the non-core index. The variation in the core index was marginally higher than in the same period last year. Within this index, the increase in air transport and tour package prices stood out.”

Despite recent favorable readings, Grupo Financiero Ve por Más indicated that the inflationary outlook is still challenging , and therefore estimated that inflation will begin to rebound next month, “instead of continuing to move towards the Bank of Mexico ’s 3% target .”

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After the rebound shown last March, manufacturing orders fell in April 2026, both on a monthly and annual basis, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi)  and the  Bank of Mexico (Banxico) announced this Monday .

During the period, the  Manufacturing Orders Indicator (IPM) stood at  50.6 units , which meant a monthly decline of 0.6 points in April of this year, compared to the previous month.

The IPM, which presents the expectations and perception of business executives on the performance of the manufacturing sector in Mexico, also registered a negative figure in its annual measurement, with a decrease of 0.2 units .

Within the IPM, a monthly drop was shown in the production component , with a decline of 3.7 units in April 2026 compared to last March.

Conversely, raw material inventories increased by 2.3 points, and orders rose by 0.3 units. Total employment and on-time delivery of raw materials from suppliers remained unchanged month-over-month.

On an annual basis, production, total employment, and timeliness of supplier deliveries declined by 5.1, 0.6, and 0.5 points, respectively. Meanwhile, orders increased by 3.7 units, and raw material inventories rose by 1.1 points during the cycle.

By subsector groups that make up the IPM, those showing the greatest year-on-year declines were  petroleum and coal derivatives, the chemical industry, and the plastics and rubber industry , with 6.7 points. This was followed by  food, beverages, and tobacco , with 1.1 points.

Those that registered year-on-year increases were computer equipment, electronic accessories and electrical appliances , with 6.8 units; transport equipment , with 2.6 points; textiles, clothing, leather and hides, wood, paper and other industries , with 2.4 points; metal products, machinery, equipment and furniture , with 2.1 units; and non-metallic minerals and basic metals , with 1.6 points.

According to Banxico, knowing the Manufacturing Orders Indicator is crucial because it provides a preview of economic activity in Mexico.

“An increase in the MPI suggests that companies are receiving more orders and producing more, which can have a positive impact on the economy and investor confidence,” he explained. However, a decrease may indicate a decline in economic activity, which would affect product availability in the market and consumer prices.

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The uncertainty of 2025, driven by a slowing economy and US tariffs , could represent an opportunity for Mexico in 2026, with events such as the World Cup and the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) impacting the country’s economic performance.

The discussion “Opportunities for the Mexican Economy and Foreign Trade in 2026 ,” organized by Mundi , included Gabriela Gutiérrez Mora, national president of the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) ; Guillermo Bernal, director of Public Affairs at the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico (AmCham Mexico) ; Diego López Tamayo, senior economist at BBVA Research ; and Sonny Tabares, VP of Risk and Credit at Mundi.

In the dialogue, the specialists agreed that the review of the USMCA, which will take place next July, will be a turning point for the Mexican economy .

In that sense, Guillermo Bernal considered that free trade will no longer be as it is currently conceived, but local content offers the opportunity to keep Mexico attractive with good industrial policy management .

He clarified that the trilateral trade agreement is under review, not being renegotiated, “and will continue to be key to providing certainty within a co-production system where, just as we are the main seller to the United States, we are also its main buyer.”

The event highlighted that among the possible scenarios being considered are the renewal of the USMCA for an additional 16 years or, if no consensus is reached, annual reviews for a decade ; in addition, discussions on stricter rules of origin are anticipated, particularly in the automotive and manufacturing sectors , as well as greater pressure to limit Chinese inputs in regional value chains.

It is worth remembering that Mexico registered a positive performance in its trade balance, going from a deficit of 18 billion 541 million dollars (USD) in 2024 to a surplus of 771 million USD in 2025, reaching historical highs in total exports with 664 billion 837 million USD, and in total imports with 664 billion 066 million USD.

Moderate economic growth

The IMEF’s economic outlook warns of a scenario of insufficient growth, persistent inflation and weak investment , with a moderate forecast of 1.3% for 2026.

This figure is similar to that presented by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) in its survey on expectations (1.30%), as well as that predicted (1.2%) by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) , but below that projected (1.5%) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .

The IMEF survey respondents estimate that inflation will close the year at 3.95%; the same figure as the Survey on Expectations of Private Sector Economic Specialists by Banxico, while BBVA Research anticipated a general and core inflation of 3.8 percent.

“ Economic growth requires coordinated efforts between the public and private sectors to launch strategic projects and strengthen our industrial potential. Although exports remain dynamic, we are already seeing some nuances due to the impact of tariffs , particularly on auto parts. Energy will be a central focus in the USMCA discussions and in industrial policy,” emphasized Diego López.

World Cup, an economic showcase

Experts agreed that the impact of the 2026 FIFA  World Cup will extend beyond the immediate economic benefits and temporary employment in the service sector. The event is anticipated as a strategic catalyst that will strengthen Mexico’s international profile , solidifying its position as a priority destination for new investments.

“The 2026 FIFA World Cup puts us on the radar for foreign investment; the challenge is to turn that visibility into resilient, long-term growth,” Sonny Tabares emphasized.

Investment and employment, with challenges

According to the Ministry of Economy (SE) , at the close of the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), Mexico reached a historic record of 40,906 million USD of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), however, the challenge is that this flow depends, to a large extent, on the reinvestment of profits and not on new capital.

The above highlights a critical opportunity cost: as long as legal uncertainty and the lack of energy infrastructure persist , the country will continue to attract capital by inertia instead of attracting fresh investments that are currently moving towards other competitive markets.

Regarding jobs, BBVA Research identified that formal employment grew 1.3% in 2025, but fell to only 0.3% when excluding workers from digital platforms.

According to the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) , 2025 saw a record high of 23.9 million jobs; however, the creation of 278,697 jobs represented the second weakest performance in more than two decades.

The Mexican labor market remains far from solid dynamism, as the slowdown in investment and the lack of business confidence not only limit the figures, but also represent a direct social cost: the inability to generate high-quality jobs that will drive true prosperity for Mexican families in 2026.

In a 2026 where uncertainty persists, Mexico has competitive advantages that it must take advantage of to boost its economic growth, such as its strategic location and the skilled workforce it has.

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States in southern and southeastern Mexico showed improved industrial performance in May 2025 and have weathered the economic crisis facing the country and the world, resulting from protectionist trade measures by the United States.

In this regard,  Quintana Roo, Guerrero and Chiapas recorded the best performance in terms of their industrial activity by federal entity in the fifth month of the year, with monthly increases of 22.4%, 12.8% and 12.6% , respectively, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) announced this Wednesday  .

According to the  Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity by State (IMAIEF) , which provides information on the performance of industrial activity in the states, San Luis Potosí, Hidalgo, Tabasco, and Yucatán also had optimal performance in their industries during the period.

Meanwhile, the states that showed the largest declines last May compared to April 2025 were Durango with 4.6%, Tamaulipas with 4.5%, and Sonora with 2.8%.

In its annual measurement, the states where industrial activity showed the greatest growth were Hidalgo, Baja California Sur, and Nuevo León, with 15.2%, 12.8%, and 11.3%, respectively, in the fifth month of the year.

On the other hand, the states that showed the greatest decline in industrial activity on an annual basis were Quintana Roo (40.9%), Durango (17.2%), and Campeche (13.8%).

Industrial activity by sector

In the fifth month of the year, Tabasco, Hidalgo, Nuevo León, Chiapas, and San Luis Potosí recorded significant annual growth in manufacturing industries , reported INEGI.

In construction , the largest increases occurred in Guanajuato, Mexico City, Baja California Sur, State of Mexico, Aguascalientes, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Sinaloa and Coahuila.

During this period, the mining sector registered increases in Chiapas, Michoacán, Veracruz, Mexico City, Guanajuato, Baja California Sur, and Tlaxcala.

In the generation, transmission, distribution and marketing of electric power, water supply and natural gas supply through pipelines to the final consumer , Guanajuato, Michoacán, Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, Morelos and Baja California showed increases in their industrial activity.

Despite global tariff uncertainty, industrial performance in some Mexican states has made progress, although the country is facing a complex economic situation, which is beginning to show signs of recovery.

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After a setback last June, Mexican consumer confidence saw a slight recovery in July 2025, amid a new economic outlook stemming from uncertainty over global tariffs.

According to information from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) , the  Consumer Confidence Indicator (ICC)  reached  45.9 points  in the seventh month of the year, which represented a  monthly growth of 0.4 points .

In its annual comparison and with seasonally adjusted figures, the ICC registered a drop of  1.2 units  last July.

Within this framework, and with seasonally adjusted figures, monthly increases were observed in the components that assess the household’s current economic situation, the country’s current economic situation, and the current ability of household members to purchase durable goods. In contrast, the indicators that capture the household’s expected economic situation and the country’s future situation declined.

In the seventh month of the year, the component that measures household members’ current affordability, compared to a year ago, to purchase furniture, televisions, washing machines, and other items , saw the greatest increase, with a monthly increase of 2.5 points.

This was followed by the country’s current economic situation compared to 12 months ago , as well as the current economic situation of household members compared to 12 months ago , each with an increase of 0.1 units.

In the reference period, the component that registered the greatest decline was the country’s expected economic situation in 12 months, compared to the current one , with a decrease of 0.3 points.

The expected economic situation of household members in 12 months, compared to the current situation , registered a decrease of 0.2 units.

The rebound in Mexican consumer confidence in July 2025 signals a slight recovery in the economy and Mexican purchasing power.

The CPI figures come in a context in which inflation is beginning to decline. In the first half of July alone, the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) stood at 3.55% in its annual measurement, after having trended upward in the first months of 2025.

The drop in inflation is one of the factors that has influenced the improvement in the purchasing power of Mexican consumers.

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