Mexico’s manufacturing activity is projected to have grown by 2%  in July 2026 compared to the same month in 2025, according to the results of the Monthly Indicator of Manufacturing Activity (IMOAM).

In the seventh month of the year, the IMOAM, prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , projected a value of  108.2 points  as an advance calculation of the Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity (IMAI) of the manufacturing sector.

“The IMOAM has established itself as a reliable estimation tool and is continuously evaluated by comparing it with the IMAI,” the agency stated.

Its objective is to provide a projection of the monthly behavior of Mexican manufacturing production activity.

The manufacturing industry is one of the most important in the country, as it represents about  20% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and more than 80% of total merchandise exports.

If the estimated result for July materializes, Mexican manufacturing would find itself in a recovery environment, following the slight monthly drop of 0.1 points in manufacturing orders recorded in the seventh month of the year.

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As a result of improved performance in the services sector —which includes activities such as transportation and storage—, Mexican economic activity would have grown in July 2026.

The Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE), prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , anticipated an  annual increase of 2.7%  in Mexican economic activity in the seventh month of the year.

In its monthly measurement, the indicator would also have shown a positive figure, registering an increase of 0.1%  last July.

This rebound signals a  moderate economic expansion in Mexico , coupled with a slowdown in inflation, which in July 2026 stood at 3.12% compared to its annual comparison.

According to the Inegi report, by economic activity groups, an annual increase of 1.8% is expected in  secondary activities —manufacturing and construction—.

In  tertiary activities , which include services such as commerce, transport and storage, communications, education and health, an increase of 2.8% per year is estimated.

By July 2026, the IOAE projected an annual growth of 2.7% in the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) .

On a monthly basis, the IGAE, as well as secondary and tertiary activities, are expected to register an increase of 0.1% by July 2026.

The IOAE estimate for the seventh month of the year shows a positive performance of secondary and tertiary activities in Mexico, both on a monthly and annual basis, which, if it materializes, would mean a respite for the Mexican economy, since it would begin the third quarter of the year with slight growth.

The IOAE is a statistical tool that allows anticipating the behavior of the IGAE, as well as secondary and tertiary activities, up to five weeks in advance, according to Inegi.

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The storage services subsector added 235 establishments in June 2026 , representing a slight growth of 0.85% compared to last May, when there were 233 units, according to statistics from the Manufacturing, Maquiladora and Export Services Industry (IMMEX) program, prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

According to the report, the number of employees was 15,091 , an increase of 2.20% compared to May 2026.

Meanwhile,  hours worked in June totaled 2,871 , representing a monthly increase of 6.33 percent.  Average wages for workers in this subsector reached 30,765 pesos per person, 2.12% less than in May.

Revenues in the subsector amounted to  nine billion 782 million pesos (mdp) in the sixth month of the year, that is, a slight increase of 1.72% compared to May, when they totaled nine billion 616 million pesos.

Overall, in June 2026, the revenues of establishments participating in the IMMEX program were 697,032 million pesos, a 3.99% increase compared to the same month in 2025, when they totaled 670,246 million pesos. Of the total, 59.9% corresponded to revenues from the foreign market, reflecting the sector’s dependence on international demand.

With seasonally adjusted figures, in June of this year there were  6,520  establishments registered in the IMMEX program : 5,214 carried out manufacturing activities and the rest were related to agriculture, fishing, commerce and services.

Baja California had the highest number of establishments (17.3% of the total). It was followed by Nuevo León (13.8%), Chihuahua (9.3%), Coahuila (7.1%), Guanajuato and Jalisco (6.4% each), and Tamaulipas (6.2%).

On a monthly basis, employment grew by 0.4%, while year-on-year it fell by 0.4%. Hours worked increased by 0.2% month-on-month and decreased by 0.4% year-on-year.

In June 2026, average real wages fell 0.6% monthly and showed an annual increase of 4.7% in the income of workers in the sector.

According to the results of June 2026, the IMMEX establishments showed a mixed balance, with variations among the components that make it up.

These figures come in a context where Mexican foreign trade has once again registered strong performance. In June alone, the country’s exports totaled $72.551 billion , a 34.4% year-on-year increase.

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The physical volume of production in the Mexican manufacturing industry registered a slight rebound of 0.1% on a monthly basis in June 2026, after having fallen 0.6% last May, according to the results of the Monthly Survey of the Manufacturing Industry (EMIM), prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

Conversely, on an annual basis, the country’s manufacturing activity showed a decline of 2.4% , according to the agency’s figures.

The mixed results of the sector during the sixth month of the year extended to the  employed personnel , which increased 0.1% on a monthly basis, while in its annual measurement it fell 1.5 percent.

Meanwhile,  hours worked increased by  0.1% in June 2026 compared to May, while falling by 1.5% year-on-year.  Average real wages paid , including salaries, wages, and social benefits, rose by 0.6% month-on-month and increased by 2.2% year-on-year.

By subsector, the manufacture of computer, communication, measurement and other electronic equipment, components and accessories  was the industry that had the largest increase in physical production volume with 6.8% at an annual rate.

They were followed by the chemical industry  with a growth of 5.1%, and  the manufacture of machinery and equipment  with an annual advance of 3.8 percent.

Meanwhile, the industries that registered the largest year-on-year decline were  the manufacture of petroleum and coal products with a decrease of 5%, and  the manufacture of textile inputs and textile finishing with a decrease of 3.9%.

The Mexican manufacturing industry is going through a period of ups and downs, where there has been a realignment in the sectors that traditionally sustained the value of production and exports.

The June 2026 results of the EMIM, which reports on the situation of the main variables of production and employment in the manufacturing sector, recorded an increase in the production of computer equipment.

According to Grupo Financiero BASE , computer equipment exports grew 144.80% in 2025 compared to 2024, and it is one of the products that currently sustains the country’s shipments abroad.

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The Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP) anticipated  a 0.2% monthly increase in consumption for June 2026 and estimated a 2.5% annual growth rate , according to figures from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

For July, the agency projected that the IOCP would not show changes on a monthly basis, reflecting a stagnation in Mexican household spending; while in its annual measurement it forecasts an increase of 2.2 percent.

For both months, the consumption index would be at 114.2 points , which could signify a trend of stability.

In June 2026, consumption showed signs of recovery in Mexican household spending as the economy also began to pick up.

In the second quarter of 2026 alone, Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.51%, after a contraction of 0.62% in the first quarter of the year, according to Grupo Financiero BASE .

Although consumption, which represents more than 70% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  , is expected to show positive behavior in June 2026, Mexicans continue to show caution when purchasing goods and services.

Given this scenario, some consumers have changed their habits, buying lower-cost products or store brands, even in hard discount stores .

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The construction and mining sectors boosted Mexico’s industrial production, which saw a slight increase of 0.2% in June 2026 compared to May , when it fell 0.7% month-on-month, reported the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

With this result, the Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity (IMAI) was at a level of 102 during the sixth month of the year.

According to the agency’s figures,  three of the four components of the IMAI had a positive performance in June 2026 on a monthly basis, with  construction  showing the largest increase at 3 percent.

This was followed by the generation, transmission, distribution, and marketing of electricity, and the supply of water and natural gas via pipelines to the end consumer , which rose 0.9 percent. Mining  increased 0.6 percent, and  manufacturing industries declined 0.6 percent during June of this year on a monthly basis.

In its annual measurement, Mexican industrial activity also showed encouraging figures, registering an increase of 0.8% in the sixth month of 2026.

Within the indicator, mining performed best with a 7 percent increase. Construction grew 4.2%, and the generation, transmission, distribution, and marketing of electricity, water supply, and natural gas via pipelines to the end consumer increased 0.7% year-on-year.

The only sector that showed a negative figure on an annual rate was manufacturing industries, which fell 1.2% compared to June 2025, reflecting the stagnation that this activity has had in recent months.

The IMAI results for June show an advance in Mexican industrial activity, with some activities performing better than others.

In this sense, construction, driven by various projects such as passenger trains and the Mexico Plan with the construction of industrial parks through the Development Poles of Well-being, has had a positive impact on the IMAI.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing industry has registered a decline, both on a monthly and annual basis, resulting from external policies such as the tariffs imposed by the United States, and a Mexican economy that is only just beginning to show signs of recovery.

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Annual general inflation in Mexico stood at 3.12% in July 2026 , resulting from the fall in the prices of some agricultural products, according to the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), published by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

“The variable slowed for the fourth consecutive reading and reached its lowest point since 2020,” stated Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (BX+) . Furthermore, the July figure is the lowest for a similar period since 2016.

According to Inegi, the  core price index , which excludes goods and services with high volatility, grew 0.23% on a monthly basis, with an increase in the prices of goods of 0.19% and an increase in the costs of services of 0.26 percent.

“The core inflation rate has moderated since February, but remains close to 4 percent. Goods inflation has eased as the effect of January’s fiscal adjustments has diminished, in addition to reflecting the pass-through of currency appreciation and lower food input prices. Services inflation still shows rates somewhat higher than the year-end figures for 2025 and well above the historical average,” explained (BX+) in its analysis.

For its part, INEGI reported that the  non-core price index (goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations) fell 0.67% month-on-month. Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices dropped 3.11%, while energy and regulated tariff prices decreased by 0.01%.

The products and services that registered a decrease in their prices were tomatoes with 29.20%, followed by poblano peppers with 15.63%, serrano peppers with 6.98%, eggs with 1.08%, LP gas with 1% and automobiles with a drop of 0.54% on a monthly basis.

In contrast, the cost of onions increased by 18.97%, as did oranges (up 11.90%), computers (up 6.10%), and air travel (up 4.11%). Restaurants and housing also saw price increases.

According to Grupo Financiero Ve por Más, “even considering the recent favorable readings, we judge that the inflationary outlook is still challenging,” and therefore it expects that inflation will begin to rebound next month .

With the July result, inflation is within the target of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) , which is 3% with a range of one percentage point above or below.

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In July 2026, prices in the transportation, postal and storage sector in Mexico registered an increase of 0.70% compared to last June and also had an annual increase of 4.19% , due to the increase in the cost of inputs and fuels, mainly, during the period, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced .

The upturn in the cycle reflected the advance in inflation shown by the tertiary activities of the Mexican economy – which include services such as education, tourism and logistics – in the seventh month of the year, with a monthly growth of 0.34% and an annual growth of 4.14% , according to the National Producer Price Index (INPP).

According to the INPP, air cargo companies  lowered their prices, showing decreases of 1.50% month-on-month and 2.51% year-on-year. This decline stemmed from a market slowdown following the conclusion of the World Cup, due to reduced freight traffic and uncertainty surrounding international trade disputes.

In July 2026, the  airport usage fee increased by 1.62% compared to the previous June, while the year-on-year increase was 3.46%. The main reasons for this increase include operating and infrastructure costs , higher passenger traffic due to the World Cup, and the start of the holiday season.

The air cargo loading and unloading subsector   saw a 0.01% monthly increase in costs. On an annual basis, companies in the sector paid 3.08% more.

Rail freight rates remained unchanged in July 2026 compared to June. Year-on-year, however, they increased by 1.18 percent. This subsector remained virtually stable due to the sustained growth of industries such as automotive and manufacturing, which maintained demand for rail transport.

Maritime freight transport grew 0.07% month-on-month and increased 1.86% year-on-year, reflecting relatively contained inflation, although geopolitical risks, such as the conflict in the Middle East, remain. Meanwhile, port usage fees rose 0.64% month-on-month and 5.58% year-on-year.

Prices for  general freight trucking accelerated to 0.42% monthly in July 2026 and 3.84% year-on-year. This mode of transport has been pressured by the rise in the cost of petroleum-derived inputs, such as diesel, and tires. Added to this is the increase in toll costs for trucks and buses , with a 7.59% annual rise, although the monthly measurement showed no change.

Customs agencies  and other freight forwarding services increased the price of their service by 0.08% monthly and 0.33% annually.

Parcel and courier services  saw a 0.42% increase in July 2026 compared to June, while the annual rate rose by 4.50%. Meanwhile,  cargo storage costs increased by 1.25% month-on-month and had an annual increase of 2.57%.

The conflict in the Middle East, fleet maintenance, the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) , the increase in fuel prices, and other factors have influenced the increase in the costs of the country’s logistics services.

According to the Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (Comce) Northeast chapter , between 2015 and 2025, the costs of transporting and storing goods in Mexico increased by 72%, showing an upward adjustment in the price of these services.

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Despite the uncertainty caused by constant tariff changes, Mexican consumer confidence showed a monthly increase in July 2026 , driven by the World Cup, so the Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) stood at 45 points.

According to data from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi)  and the  Bank of Mexico (Banxico) , the ICC had a growth of 1.1 units compared to last June , while at an annual rate it registered a drop of  0.7 points .

“Within it, and with seasonally adjusted figures, monthly increases were recorded in all five components that make it up,” Inegi noted.

In the seventh month of the year, the component that measures the country’s expected economic situation in 12 months compared to the current one was the one with the greatest increase, with a monthly advance of 1.8 points .

This was followed by the country’s current economic situation compared to 12 months ago, with an increase of 1.7 units compared to June 2026.

The ability of household members to purchase furniture, televisions, washing machines, and other appliances, compared to a year ago, increased by 1 point on a monthly basis.

Meanwhile, the expected economic situation of household members in 12 months compared to the current situation grew by 0.7 units; while the indicator that measures the current economic situation of household members compared to what they had 12 months ago rose by 0.5 points on a monthly basis.

In its annual measurement, four of the five components declined, with the expected economic situation of the country in 12 months compared to the current one showing the greatest decline, with a drop of 1.4 points.

The current economic situation of household members compared to that of 12 months ago was the only component with a positive result, with 0.2 units more than in July 2025.

Consumer spending in Mexico has been mixed ; on the one hand, it grew month by month, but fell year-on-year. One of the factors that contributed to the monthly increase was the World Cup, although, according to analysts, it fell short of expectations for the sporting event.

According to the BASE Financial Group , consumption represents more than 70% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) , and determines families’ disposable income and their willingness to consume.

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Mexican business confidence increased by 0.1 points in July 2026 compared to last June and decreased by 0.7 units year-on-year, according to the Global Business Confidence Opinion Indicator (IGOEC), which stood at 48.2 points.

According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , with this latest observation, the indicator has remained below the 50-point threshold for 17 consecutive months , reflecting pessimism among Mexican business owners.

By sector, construction saw the largest monthly gain, rising 0.9 points to 47.2 units. The company’s future economic outlook was the only component with a negative result, registering a decrease of 0.1 points.

The confidence of private non-financial services business owners increased by 0.3 units compared to last June, reaching 48.5 units, thus accumulating 10 consecutive months below the 50-point threshold.

The improvement was explained by a more favorable perception of the country’s current economic situation, which rose 1.4 points month-on-month; however, the right time to invest fell by 1 unit.

The Business Confidence Indicator (BCI) for manufacturing industries remained unchanged, holding steady at 48 points and marking 17 consecutive months below the 50-point threshold. The only component that registered a monthly decline (-1.4 points) was the “opportune time to invest” indicator.

In July 2026, the Trade ICE fell 0.6 points compared to the previous month, reaching 48.4 points. This marks the 17th consecutive month that the indicator has remained below the 50-point threshold.

The decline was due to less confidence about the right time to invest (-1 point) and the future economic situation of the company, which fell 0.9 units in the period.

In its annual measurement, the ICE for manufacturing industries fell 1.4 units; the construction sector advanced 0.1 points; the trade sector registered an increase of 1.2 units; and the private non-financial services sector fell 1.6 points.

Business confidence advanced in the seventh month of the year, after remaining unchanged in June, registering its second monthly increase in 2026, driven by construction.

According to Inegi, the IGOEC and the ICE are built with the results of the Monthly Business Opinion Survey (EMOE), which presents the opinion of business executives from the manufacturing, construction, trade, and private non-financial services industries on the economic situation of the country and their companies.

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