The economy of Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to maintain moderate growth during 2026 , in a scenario marked by geopolitical tensions, disruptions in logistics routes and uncertainty in trade policy, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) .

In the case of Mexico, the organization estimated that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow 1.6% this year and 2.2% by 2027 , according to the report “Latin America and the Caribbean: GDP growth projections 2026 and 2027” .

The projection represents an upward adjustment compared to ECLAC’s estimate from last August, when it predicted that Mexico would grow 1.3% in 2026 and 1.9% next year.

Even with the increase, these rates are lower than those projected for Latin America and the Caribbean: 2% for 2026 and 2.5% for 2027.

The regional outlook is shaped by an international environment that combines weaker demand prospects, increased pressure on energy and food prices, and less favorable financial conditions. These factors could drive up the cost of inputs, transportation, and imports , as well as reduce household purchasing power.

The impact, however, will not be uniform. Commodity-exporting economies could benefit from higher international prices, while importing countries would face increased costs that would put pressure on both businesses and domestic consumption.

ECLAC warned that job creation continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace . This is compounded by an upward trend in inflation, driven primarily by rising energy and food prices.

Financing presents another challenge. Higher international inflationary pressures and increases in interest rates in developed economies could make credit more expensive for governments, businesses, and consumers, with potential effects on investment.

In that context, the ability of Latin American economies to sustain consumption and investment will be crucial for the growth projected for 2027 to materialize.

Differences between the subregions

ECLAC projections show different behaviors among the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean.

In that sense, South America would grow 2.1% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, while Central America would register advances of 1.7% and 2.8%, respectively.

In Central America, the overall result is influenced by the performance of Cuba and Haiti. Excluding both economies, the average projected growth for the subregion would rise to 4.1% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027.

For the Caribbean , the organization estimated growth of 7.4% in 2026 and 7% in 2027, figures that primarily reflect Guyana’s performance. Excluding Guyana, growth would be 1.2% and 1.9%, respectively.

These differences reflect countries’ unequal exposure to international prices, trade and financial conditions, and their productive capacities.

Productive development to boost growth

Given the prospect of limited growth, ECLAC suggested strengthening productive development policies and promoting integrated formalization strategies , with the aim of increasing productivity, expanding investment and generating formal and quality jobs.

The organization proposed coordinating labor, fiscal, financial, and production policies to boost the capabilities of companies and facilitate more inclusive and sustainable growth.

The outlook for 2027 will also depend on the evolution of global demand, commodity prices, financial conditions and the possible effects of the El Niño phenomenon.

For Mexico and the rest of the region, the challenge will be to convert macroeconomic stability into greater productive dynamism, in a context where costs, financing and international uncertainty will continue to condition investment decisions.

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