Mexican manufacturing activity is expected to maintain a positive trajectory in August 2026, albeit at a still slow pace, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

The Timely Monthly Indicator of Manufacturing Activity (IMOAM) estimated an annual growth of 1.6% for the eighth month of the year, with a value of 108 points as an advance calculation of the Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity (IMAI) of the manufacturing sector.

The August estimate falls within a 95% confidence interval ranging from a 1.2% drop to a 4.4% growth, so the data does not yet allow us to speak of a definitive result for the sector.

The IMOAM serves as an advance indicator of the IMAI for manufacturing. INEGI indicated that its objective is to anticipate the next monthly IMAI figure, which is published approximately 40 days after the end of the reference month.

Although the anticipated result remains in positive territory, last August’s reading points to a moderation in the country’s manufacturing industry, as the projection anticipates growth, but without showing a particularly accelerated dynamic.

For supply chains, manufacturing performance is relevant due to its connection with the movement of raw materials, components, and finished products. Furthermore, manufacturing maintains a direct relationship with foreign trade and, particularly, with export operations .

The manufacturing industry is one of the most important in the country, as it represents about  20% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and more than 80% of total merchandise exports.

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The industrial real estate market in Monterrey maintained its dynamism during the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), driven by the manufacturing sector and the arrival of new investments, according to the consultancy CBRE Mexico .

According to the Market View report , gross absorption or marketed spaces during the quarter reached 295,000 square meters (m²) , a growth of 125% compared to the previous quarter, derived from new industrial investments.

This performance allowed the cumulative absorption during the first half of the year (1H26) to reach 426 thousand (m²) , an annual increase of 19.1%, reflecting that the market continues to attract industrial projects despite a moderate economic context.

“The Monterrey industrial market continues to grow in a phase of normalization. Today it is moving towards a more sustainable balance, with greater competition among landlords and more favorable conditions for tenants,” highlighted Ramón Flores, Vice Chairman of CBRE Mexico Northeast region.

At the close of Q2 2026, the industrial inventory reached 17.99 million m² , after adding 93,000 m² of new supply during the period, representing a year-over-year increase of 6.3 percent . Apodaca accounted for 40% of the new developments, followed by Santa Catarina with 35%, consolidating their positions as the main centers of industrial expansion in the metropolitan area.

According to CBRE, the vacancy rate closed Q2 2026 at 6.8% , a slight decrease from 6.9% in Q1 2026, representing approximately 1.21 million square meters of available space . Construction activity totaled 521,000 square meters , although this was part of an adjustment process in response to increased market supply. The average monthly rent was $6.98 per square meter .

Manufacturing solidified its position as the main driver of real estate demand. This sector accounted for 78% of the total area sold , followed by logistics companies with 11% and high-tech companies with 6%.

By origin of investment, operations from the United States led the demand with 29% of gross absorption , followed by Denmark with 23% and Germany with 11 percent.

CBRE also highlighted the return of Asian investment , which contributed 74,000 m² of demand during the quarter . Furthermore, the average transaction size increased by 40%, reaching approximately 15,000 m² .

Nuevo León registered favorable economic indicators at the beginning of the year, with a Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) of 1,956.5 million dollars (mdd) in 1Q26 , equivalent to 8.3% of the national total.

In terms of employment, 38,000 new jobs were created between January and May, according to figures from the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) . Of these, 52% were in the manufacturing sector.

Against this economic backdrop, the ETYL MTY 2026 (Transportation and Logistics Meeting) will take place on October 14 and 15  in Monterrey, Nuevo León , under the theme “Mexico, Global Hub 2026: New Times in Logistics, Nearshoring , and International Trade.” This forum, organized by T21 , will bring together industry leaders. For more information, visit https://etylmx.com/ .

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After the drop recorded last February, the Manufacturing Orders Indicator (IPM) showed a rebound of 0.5 points on a monthly basis in March 2026 , the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) and the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) announced this Wednesday .

In the third month of the year,  the MPI stood at  51.2 units, marking three consecutive months above the 50-point threshold . However, in its annual measurement, the MPI showed a negative result, decreasing by 0.1 units.

Within it, three of the five components that make up the IPM registered declines in the monthly comparison.

In March 2026,  raw material inventories  fell by 3.9 percentage points compared to February. This was followed by a monthly decrease of 0.9 percentage points  in orders . Meanwhile, employment fell by 0.1 percentage points month-over-month during the third month of this year.

Conversely,  production  showed a monthly increase of six units, and  timeliness in the delivery of inputs from suppliers increased by 0.3 monthly points in March 2026.

By subsector, on an annual basis, the one that showed the greatest decrease was petroleum and coal derivatives, the chemical industry, and the plastics and rubber industry , with 2.7 points. Meanwhile,  food, beverages, and tobacco saw the largest annual increase, with 2.5 points.

Knowing the results of the IPM is important, as it anticipates the activity of the manufacturing sector , one of the country’s economic engines, which is an attractive industry for foreign capital.

According to the  Ministry of Economy , the  Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) that the manufacturing sector attracted in 2025 was more than 30% of the total FDI that Mexico received in the cycle, which was 40 billion 871 million dollars .

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After two consecutive months of declines (November and December 2025), manufacturing orders increased in January 2026 on a monthly basis, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced on Tuesday .

The Manufacturing Orders Indicator (IPM) stood at  50.8 points , a monthly advance of 3.5 units in the first month of the year.

The IPM, which presents the expectations and perception of business executives on the behavior of the manufacturing sector in Mexico, also registered a good performance in its annual measurement, with an increase of 0.2 points .

Within the IPM, monthly increases were recorded in four of the five components that make it up.

In January 2026,  orders grew by 8.7 units compared to December 2025.  Input inventories  showed a monthly increase of 7.1 points, and total employed personnel reported an increase of 0.6 units.

Timeliness in the delivery of inputs from suppliers registered an increase of 0.1 points, while production fell 0.4 units in the cycle in its monthly measurement.

By subsector group within the IPM, the largest year-on-year declines were in non-metallic minerals and basic metals, with a drop of 5.7 points. This was followed by metal products, machinery, equipment, and furniture, with a decrease of 3.4 points. Conversely, the largest increase was in transportation equipment, with a year-on-year rise of 2.2 points.

The result for the first month of the year of the MPI represents the second best reading in the last four months, only behind the figure reached last October, when this indicator stood at 53 points, according to original figures.

The good pace of the IPM achieved last January is also in line with the Foreign Direct Investment that the manufacturing industry attracted in the third quarter of 2025, with a foreign capital receipt of  37% , according to the  Ministry of Economy .

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Due to zero growth in the manufacturing sector, Mexican economic activity would have stagnated in October 2025, following the decline observed last September.

The  Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) , prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , anticipated that there were no changes in Mexican economic activity in the tenth month of the year, both on a monthly and annual basis.

By economic activity groups , an annual decrease of 2.1% is expected in secondary activities – made up of manufacturing and construction – and an increase of 0.9% in tertiary activities, which include services such as trade, transport and storage, communications, education and health.

In its monthly measurement, the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) also remains unchanged. A 0.1% increase is projected for secondary activities, while a 0.2% decrease is expected for tertiary activities in October of this year.

The stagnation of the Mexican economy in October occurred in a context of constant tariff changes worldwide; however, projections from international organizations, such as the World Bank , have improved the growth estimate for Mexico.

According to the organization’s forecasts, the Mexican economy would grow by 0.5% in 2025, driven by domestic consumption.

“The IOAE is a statistical tool that allows us to anticipate the behavior of the IGAE, as well as secondary and tertiary activities, up to five weeks in advance,” according to Inegi.

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The rating agency noted that companies with greater exposure to the manufacturing sector are likely to be the most affected, due to recent changes that have altered the outlook for the relocation of production lines in Mexico, i.e., nearshoring .

“These obstacles are mitigated by the sector’s conservative business models, solid occupancy rates, and stable financial profiles,” the firm emphasized.

Approximately 80% of the manufacturing sector ‘s customers are exporters, with the United States being the primary destination for their products. In this regard, the automotive industry , one of the most vulnerable to tariffs , represents almost a quarter of the gross leasable area (GLA) of Fitch-rated companies in the sector.

“As of the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), rated issuers presented a balanced GLA mix between manufacturing (47%) and logistics/consumer goods (53%), with the northern region of Mexico accounting for the majority of GLA (46%) and ongoing development projects (56%). The majority of logistics/consumer goods GLA is located in the central region of the country and is almost entirely allocated to the local market,” he explained.

It’s worth noting that Fitch Ratings forecast that Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will decline 0.4% in 2025 before recovering 0.8% in 2026, due to the global trade war that began this year and has generated uncertainty among investors and in various markets around the world.

“While the magnitude, scope, and permanence of the tariffs and potential retaliatory measures remain unclear, the uncertainty is already prompting Mexican real estate companies to reevaluate the timing of their investments and consider alternative scenarios as demand slows,” he stressed.

He noted that companies such as Fibra Prologis and Fibra MTY acquire operating assets rather than developing them from scratch, which reduces start-up risk.

On the other hand, he emphasized that Vesta and Fibra MTY have a high leverage margin, although the latter has greater exposure to the manufacturing sector, so it could be more affected by the tariff war.

The rating agency expects rated real estate issuers to maintain stable capital structures in 2025 and indicated that they are likely to reduce investments to maintain occupancy rates amid lower demand.

According to CBRE , a commercial real estate services and investment company, in 2024 total sales or national gross absorption registered an annual growth of 5% , while the share of nearshoring  with respect to total accumulated sales was  28% , which meant a figure similar to that of 2022 and 2023.

Last year, demand for industrial real estate due to the relocation of production lines in Mexico exceeded two million square meters (m2) , according to the firm.

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