In September 2025, the  Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) , prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) , anticipated an annual decline of 0.6% in the Mexican economy , resulting from a slowdown in secondary activities, such as manufacturing.

“The IOAE provides timely econometric estimates of the evolution of the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE), as well as secondary and tertiary activities,” INEGI explained.

In its monthly measurement, the IOAE would have shown a positive figure, registering an increase of 0.1%  in the ninth month of the year .

By economic activity group , a 3% annual decline is expected  in secondary industries , which include manufacturing and construction.

In  tertiary activities , which include services such as trade,  transportation and storage , communications, education and health, an  annual growth of 0.8% is estimated .

Inegi also anticipated an annual decrease of 0.6% in the IGAE for September .

On a monthly basis, a 0.1% increase was projected in the IGAE , as well as in secondary and tertiary activities for the reference month.

The decline in the country’s economic activity last September shows signs of a contraction in the performance of key sectors such as manufacturing, which has been affected by a drop in external demand amid an aggressive tariff policy.

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