Tariff uncertainty, weak domestic consumption and a drop in investment will affect the Mexican economy, so the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would barely grow 0.4% in 2025 , estimated the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) .

In presenting the Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2025 , the organization also projected that the Mexican economy could grow 1.3% in 2026 , due to factors such as greater trade certainty, as well as the possible ratification of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the positive effects of the World Cup on tourism.

At a press conference, José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, executive secretary of ECLAC, explained that low productivity growth, as well as lower investment and poor educational performance, are factors that prevent Mexico from achieving sustained growth.

“To increase its growth, Mexico must, among other things, scale up productive development policies, accelerate productive transformation, increase investment levels, and improve access to and quality of educational learning,” Salazar-Xirinachs explained.

Regarding the estimate for Latin America , ECLAC predicts that the regional GDP could reach 2.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026 , which, if confirmed, would represent four years of low growth for the area.

According to the report, growth projections for 2025 and 2026 are influenced by uncertainty, mainly caused by tariffs around the world.

The report highlighted differences in the trajectories of economic activity at the subregional level, where South America would grow 2.9% in 2025 , driven by the recovery of Argentina, Bolivia and Ecuador after contractions in 2024. For 2026 a slowdown to 2.4% is projected , due to lower growth in most of its economies.

Central America is expected to grow by 2.6% this year , affected by weakening US demand, although an improvement to 3% is expected by 2026. However, vulnerabilities related to trade, remittances, access to financing, and exposure to climate change persist.

According to the preliminary assessment, the Caribbean would grow 5.5% in 2025 and 8.2% the following year , “bolstered by the significant growth of oil activity in Guyana, and supported by the normalization of tourism and improved performance in construction.”

According to the agency’s estimates, job growth will also lose momentum: 1.5% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026. Meanwhile, regional inflation is expected to reach a median of 3% in 2026, higher than the 2.4% estimated for the end of 2025.

“The region has many assets for trading with the world, such as natural resources and productive capacities, but strategic policies are needed to realize the opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean,” said José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs.

The ECLAC executive secretary pointed out that the issue of uncertainty and volatility caused a lot of damage to emerging economies, and indicated that Latin America must diversify its markets and strengthen the ties with which it sustains trade exchanges .

“It is in Latin America’s best interest to diversify markets, investment, and trade, as this is necessary to achieve progress in their economies,” he noted.

ECLAC’s analysis warned that the region’s growth will depend on the dynamics observed in both global GDP growth and global trade. It will also be affected by the stance of monetary policy in the United States, uncertainty in international financial markets, and the potential volatility of external financing flows, including foreign direct investment and remittances, which could impact regional growth in 2026.

Among other factors, GDP growth can be affected by the performance of labor markets and their impact on household income.

In response, ECLAC urged strengthening and expanding the scope of macroeconomic policy .

José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs argued that to escape the “low growth capacity trap”, more ambitious productive development policies are needed, combined with macroeconomic policies that move more resources towards growth, innovation, economic diversification, productive transformation and the creation of quality jobs.

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Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (Asur) signed a contract to acquire 20 airports that are part of the portfolio of the Brazilian operator Motiva Infraestrutura de Mobilidade (Motiva) , which has concessions in Brazil, Ecuador, Costa Rica and Curaçao.

In a report sent to the Mexican Stock Exchange (BVM) , Asur specified that the purchase agreement to acquire the entire shareholding of Companhia de Participações em Concessões (CPC), a subsidiary of Motiva, was at a price of 936 million dollars (USD), and an enterprise value of two billion 566 million USD .

“The acquisition represents a cornerstone in Asur’s expansion strategy in the region, incorporating four new markets in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Brazil, the largest aviation market in terms of passengers in Latin America, to the already established presence in Mexico, Colombia and Puerto Rico,” he stated.

He specified that the incorporation of these infrastructures will add more than 45 million passengers to the 71 million users reported by the airport concessionaire in 2024.

The portfolio includes Quito International Airport, as well as Juan Santamaría Airport in San José, Costa Rica; Curaçao Airport in Curaçao; Confins Airport in Brazil, as well as Pampulha Airport, the airports of the Southern Bloc and those of the Central Bloc in Brazil.

Of the 20 airports that make up CPC’s portfolio, 17 of them have more than 15 years remaining on their concessions.

Asur expects the transaction to close during the first half of 2026 .

The airport operator with operations in Mexico, the United States, and Colombia reported that total passenger traffic between January and October 2025 was 58.9 million travelers, representing an increase of 0.2% compared to the same period last year.

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The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) announced on Tuesday its new growth estimates for this year for the region, where it noted a reduction from 2.4%, projected by the end of 2024, to 2 percent .

Under the new projections, Mexico and Central America will be among the regions hardest hit in terms of growth this year, dropping from 1.8 percent to just 1.0 percent . Another region where growth slowed was the Caribbean, which went from a projected growth of 2.3 percent to 1.8 percent .

According to ECLAC, the region is facing a highly uncertain international scenario due to the tariffs imposed by the United States, which have not only directly affected the region’s exports but have also caused greater volatility in international financial markets .

Furthermore, the so-called trade war  has increased the risk of serious disruptions in global production chains and international trade flows, leading to a downward revision of global growth prospects .

Finally, ECLAC noted that if the region wants to boost its growth, it requires a combination of macroeconomic and productive development policies, increasing investment in physical and human capital. Therefore, the region must not only invest more, but also invest better .

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Airports across Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are experiencing the effects of climate change – higher temperatures, rising sea levels and stronger storms –  that threaten critical airport infrastructure and impact air operations.

According to the study Adaptation of Airports in Latin America and the Caribbean to Climate Change, prepared in collaboration with the International Council of Airports in Latin America and the Caribbean (ACI-LAC) and Manchester Metropolitan University, 83% of respondents are already experiencing the effects of climate change , and 100% expect to be affected by 2050.

Additionally, 91% of respondents are already experiencing or expect to experience higher average and extreme temperatures, 89% are experiencing or expect an increase in precipitation, and 83% are experiencing more frequent or more intense storms.

Climate change will alter ecosystems and change species migration patterns. New bird migration patterns may cause an increase in bird strikes, which has operational and safety impacts.

Thus, 57% of respondents are already experiencing or expect to experience changes in wildlife patterns at some point in the future, and the remainder are already experiencing changes.

Strong winds can impact airport operations, reducing capacity and causing delays. In this regard, 49% are already experiencing changes in wind patterns , and 41% expect to experience changes in the short and medium term.

“Increased precipitation, higher average and extreme temperatures, increased storms and rising sea levels are the climate impacts that respondents expect to pose the greatest challenge to their airports,” the study said.

In this regard, airports in the region are beginning to carry out climate change risk assessments and implement adaptation measures, however, “given the magnitude of the effects of climate change expected in the region, it is vital to increase and accelerate actions.”

The study noted that this phenomenon is increasingly affecting the Latin American and Caribbean region, threatening critical airport infrastructure and aircraft operations. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), identifies Central and South America as highly vulnerable and strongly impacted by climate change, highlighting temperature increases and changes in rainfall patterns as key risks across the region, and rising sea levels as a threat in coastal areas.

“As a result, there is a growing need for airports in the region to adapt and build resilience to the impacts of climate change. This is essential to reduce vulnerabilities – both damage and costs – while protecting service continuity and critical infrastructure. Awareness of the potential impacts of climate change and the need to adapt and build resilience is increasing across the sector, and more and more airports in the region and around the world are beginning to conduct climate change risk assessments and develop adaptation strategies,” the study said.

Under this scenario, it was recommended to continue and increase current actions to raise awareness of the potential impacts on airports in the region, as well as current actions to coordinate, collaborate, promote learning and share good practices through peer support, bilateral meetings, working groups, workshops and conferences, as well as other international forums.

It also promotes and supports risk assessments, provides information and access to existing guidance on the implementation of adaptation measures, plans and strategies, and collaborates with academia.

“We need to act immediately to raise awareness, promote climate risk assessment and implement adaptation measures to achieve an airport sector in LAC that is well adapted and resilient to the impacts of looming climate change,” the study reads.

From the survey, 35 individual responses were received from 32 airports or groups of airports across the LAC region, corresponding to 53 airports in total, around 15% of the 365 ACI-LAC member airports.

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TheEconomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) foresees a panorama of uncertainty in the economic sphere in Latin America and the Caribbean, in light of which it projected that the region will maintain low growth with an expansion of just 2.2% this year and 2.4% in 2025 , according to the Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2024 .

“This year and next year, the economies of the region will remain mired in a low-growth-capacity trap, with growth rates that will remain low and with a growth dynamic that depends on private consumption, and less on investment,” the organization stressed in the report, which was released on Wednesday.

The analysis indicated that the economy in the region will only achieve an average annual growth of 1% in the period 2015-2024, which implies a stagnation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita during that period.

He explained that in 2025 South America would grow by 2.6% ; Central America by 2.9% ; while in the Caribbean, excluding Guyana, it would grow by 2.6 percent . In this context,  the low rate of job creation , high informality and significant gender gaps in the region’s labor markets persist .

In line with low GDP growth, employment in the region also registered a limited increase of 1.7% in 2024, the lowest recorded in the post-COVID-19 pandemic.

“Confronting the low growth capacity trap requires, on the one hand, increasing the capacity of economies to mobilize financial resources effectively, in order to strengthen resilience to economic fluctuations and, on the other, strengthening productive capacity in the medium and long term,” said José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs , Executive Secretary of ECLAC.

Regarding informal employment, the average informal employment rate in the region is expected to stand at 46.7% , which would mean a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the rate recorded in 2023.

On the other hand, after peaking in 2022, inflation in the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean has been declining . From 8.2% that year, the regional median inflation fell to 3.7% in December 2023. In addition, inflation is estimated to continue to decline in 2024, reaching 3.4 percent .

According to the Preliminary Balance 2024, among the main policies to address the low capacity for growth is the mobilization of financial resources. Domestically, strengthening public finances is required . This implies concentrating efforts on increasing tax collection and increasing its progressivity, in addition to reducing the levels of evasion in this area.

Given this scenario, ECLAC proposed strengthening the governance and technical, operational, political and prospective capacities (TOPP capacities) of macroeconomic institutions. In the area of ​​productive development policies (PDP), the organization emphasized the need to implement “new generation” policies to promote productive transformation.

He also suggested the need to identify areas with high potential to boost growth , prioritizing environmental sustainability, the promotion of science, technology and innovation, digitalization, among other factors, as well as taking advantage of global value chains to diversify economies.

In this regard, ECLAC identified 14 driving or transforming sectors grouped into three categories: industry , services and key areas for sustainability, which are priorities for the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, since they have a high potential to boost growth and productivity.

According to the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) , the annual general inflation in the country will close at 4.36% , slightly down from the 4.42% projected in November. Meanwhile, Mexico’s GDP would close 2024 with a growth of  1.55% , although specialists warned that for the following year growth would slow down, with an estimate of  1.17 percent .

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The most recent estimations by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) (CEPAL) determined that for this year, Mexico will experience a growth of 2.5% in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a assessment that has remained since December 2023 when the Commission adjusted the country’s economic development upwards.

The organization revealed that this year, there will be a slight increase in the growth projection for the economies of the region, averaging 2.1 percent.

The region showing the most dynamism will be the Caribbean (excluding Guyana) with an average advancement of 2.8%, followed by Central America and Mexico at 2.7%, while South America will grow by 1.6 percent.

According to the updated projections, the country with the highest economic growth will be Guyana with 34.3%, while the economy with the highest downward trend will be Argentina with a contraction of 3.1%.

“The expected expansion for the region in 2024 remains on the path of low economic growth observed in recent years, and the major challenge is how to move towards higher, dynamic, and inclusive growth,” stated ECLAC.

The region faces a complex international scenario, mainly due to the low growth of economic activity and global trade below historical averages. This is compounded by high interest rates in developed countries, resulting in higher financing costs for emerging countries, including the Latin America and the Caribbean region.

“On the domestic front, the downward trend in inflation has provided room for central banks in several countries to implement decreases in their policy interest rates, from which a favorable impact on economic activity could be expected,” detailed ECLAC.

The Commission indicated that this year global markets will be marked by several risk factors. Starting with the growing geopolitical tensions that are pushing the world towards a reconfiguration of value chains.

“Additionally, there is the risk that increases in commodity prices may delay policy interest rate cuts by major central banks, with negative effects on global economic growth. Along with the above, if interest rates remain high for longer, vulnerabilities could increase further due to debt burdens in several emerging and developing economies, as well as the vulnerability of the financial sector in developed countries,” noted ECLAC.

The United Nations agency communicated that Latin America and the Caribbean are in a development crisis characterized by three mutually reinforcing traps: a low-growth trap, a high-inequality and low social mobility trap, and a low institutional capacity and ineffective governance trap. It explained that this conditions and limits the achievement of the United Nations 2030 Agenda and, therefore, the achievement of inclusive social development.

It specified that to stimulate growth, countries in the region need to increase their productivity and allocate greater resources for the development of physical and human capital. However, it emphasized that resources should be directed towards the adoption of new technologies, as well as “promoting cluster initiatives and good business practices, fostering deep improvements in the capital accumulation process, and properly leveraging the social and environmental capital of economies.”

ECLAC determined that it is necessary for the region to invest in critical areas to increase productivity, such as infrastructure, telecommunications, digitalization, research and development. As well as significant improvements in health programs, “and an adaptation of educational systems to respond to the changes that digitalization and automation entail for labor markets,” it assured.

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