As the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) approaches , scheduled for 2026, experts warned that the process could lead to a complex renegotiation, given the explicit interest of the U.S. government in rethinking the terms of the agreement and using tariffs as an instrument of political and economic pressure.

Kenneth Smith, president of the Mexico-United States Bilateral Business Committee of the Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (Comce Nacional ) and partner of  AGON , warned that Washington “has signaled its intention to renegotiate the agreement,” so Mexico must prepare for a review that could go beyond a simple technical adjustment.

He stressed that one of the objectives of the Mexican government must be to preserve the trilateral nature of the treaty and ” defend the principle of free trade tooth and nail ,” given the risk that the United States may seek to introduce schemes of base tariffs and sectoral quotas, similar to those proposed in agreements with the European Union or Japan.

“North American value chains have been built over 30 years thanks to the elimination of trade barriers. Reinstating tariffs would go against the very spirit of the USMCA,” warned Smith, who called for maintaining a joint position with Canada.

China, the invisible fourth player

For his part, Antonio Ortiz Mena, president of the T-MEC Strategy Technical Committee of the National Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (Comce Nacional), pointed out that, regardless of whether the review is bilateral or trilateral, “ it will be a negotiation between four ”: Mexico, the United States, Canada… and China.

“China will not be at the table, but it will be in the discussion,” he stated.

He recalled that the USMCA already contains a clause that prevents partners from signing agreements with economies that are not considered market economies, which indirectly points to China.

Ortiz-Mena explained that one of the most sensitive issues will be the review of rules of origin, which could incorporate restrictions related to the origin of capital and technology. She also considered that the negotiations “ will be tense, but if there are shared objectives—such as strengthening regional integration and ensuring fair trade—a successful outcome is possible .”

Infrastructure, logistics and security: pillars of competitiveness

When asked about logistics costs and infrastructure, Kenneth Smith stressed that Mexico must accompany any trade negotiations with domestic public policies that strengthen logistical capacity and promote investment in road, rail, and port infrastructure.

“The key is to develop, over the next three or four years, the capabilities that will allow Mexico to compete globally. Without infrastructure and efficient logistics, we cannot take advantage of our proximity to the United States,” he noted.

Along the same lines, Ortiz Mena maintained that infrastructure and logistics are what truly “shorten distances.” He also emphasized the need to link security and trade issues, noting that Mexico, as a member of the Wassenaar Arrangement , can strengthen its role as a supplier of dual-use goods (civilian and military) for strategic North American industries.

Regarding the Labor Rapid Response Mechanism (LRRM) , Smith warned about its use as “a form of covert protectionism” by some US unions seeking to impose sanctions even before investigations are resolved.

Ortiz-Mena agreed and pointed out that “there is a risk of abuse and even extortion” against companies through anonymous complaints, although he considered that the labor chapter of the USMCA remains a strategic asset for Mexico, positioning it as an attractive country for investment under fair trade standards and respect for labor rights.

Tariffs: political pressure and a source of revenue

Experts agreed that it is unlikely the United States will eliminate tariffs before the treaty review.

Kenneth Smith explained that President Donald Trump views tariffs as a tool of industrial policy and negotiating pressure, rather than as a temporary measure.

Ortiz Mena added that tariffs are also being used as a source of tax revenue, following the tax cuts implemented during Joe Biden’s administration.

“This reinforces the idea that tariffs are here to stay,” he said.

However, he stressed that the main objective of the review should not be to completely eliminate tariffs, but to reduce uncertainty.

“NAFTA wasn’t aiming for zero tariffs, but for certainty. Businesses prefer a low but stable tariff to a variable and unpredictable one,” he emphasized.

Juan Pablo Cervantes, advisor at Galicia Abogados, pointed out that multiple investment projects are on hold awaiting that regulatory certainty.

“A 0% tariff is not necessarily required, but rather the confidence that the rule will be followed,” he noted.

Experts agreed that the challenge for Mexico will be to safeguard legal certainty and free trade, while strengthening its infrastructure and its role as a reliable partner in North America.

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El cargo Mexico must defend free trade and certainty in the face of a contentious review of the USMCA: experts apareció primero en T21.

“We’re seeing temporary situations like Stellantis plants shutting down, and we’ll continue to see that. It ultimately impacts all of our pockets, so it’s necessary to organize the people who benefit from trade, raise awareness, and make them understand that employment in their sector and community depends on this activity in Mexico. We also need to demand that the government continue to diversify and present the country as open to the international economy,” said Kenneth Smith, former chief negotiator of the USMCA and partner at AGON .

He considered that Mexico faces a serious problem in resolving the tariff “storm” and how to address the treaty revision in 2026, which is expected to be more of a renegotiation.

“In fact, Trump is already negotiating, meaning he’s establishing tariffs, moving the goalposts and setting unacceptable conditions, even for me, but I feel I can hold out longer, in this case, with Mexico and Canada, otherwise it’s going to hurt them more,” he explained.

He stated that these actions violate the USMCA, with respect to the automotive and auto parts sector , with “a particularly toxic clause,” since the treaty does not allow them to be implemented; there are only parallel letters that exclude these industries from any national

“There are other parallel letters in which any national security measure taken by the United States in any sector, Mexico and Canada have preferential treatment over any other country in the world. This consists of the fact that, if a Section 232 national security measure is imposed by the United States, they have 60 days to negotiate a solution, while for the rest of the world, these measures would take effect immediately,” he explained.

He asserted that in the automotive, steel, and aluminum sectors, “there are direct violations of the treaty. In this sector, it was established that if the United States at any time increases the most-favored-nation tariff on light vehicles, which was 2.5% before Trump’s arrival and is now 25%, it must respect the quota of 2.6 million vehicles and up to $108 billion worth of auto parts with the 2.5%.”

“You have a clear violation with the tariffs. The moment is critical to continue working to eliminate them. This supposed exclusion of reciprocal tariffs is not based on an agreement, a free trade agreement, or a document that allows for enforcement. It depends on which side of the bed Donald Trump woke up on,” he said.

During the webinar Deciphering the Challenges, Tariffs: A New Era for International Trade, organized by the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) , he stated that as a region, North America must contain unfair practices not only from China , but also from Brazil, India and other regions, through a comprehensive and joint strategy among the three countries.

But, equally, we must also build competitive capacity, eliminate barriers and transaction costs between Mexico, Canada, and the United States. “There are barriers at the borders, phytosanitary, services, non-tariff barriers of all kinds, and uneven regulation. All these chapters of the treaties must be addressed to fully integrate them into the North American economy.”

For her part, Valeria Moy, director general of IMCO, stated that Mexico has not done the long-overdue work to boost its economy, in areas such as energy, the electricity market, and public infrastructure.

“Mexico is late in reviving the technical capacity, education, and real capabilities to adapt to a more competitive market, and the rule of law has been forgotten or overtaken by reality,” he said.

He considered that the Mexico Plan, proposed by the federal government, may gain importance in relative terms; however, if decisions are not made on the aforementioned issues, “it won’t matter.”

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