Volatility has ceased to be a passing phenomenon and has become a permanent condition that is transforming the operation of supply chains worldwide , according to the State of Logistics 2026 Report  prepared by Kearney and presented by Penske Logistics during the annual conference of the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) .

The study concludes that carriers and logistics providers face an environment of persistent disruption , in which cost pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, energy volatility and labor restrictions have ceased to be temporary factors and have become structural conditions that demand continuous adaptation.

Among the main findings, the report notes that logistics costs for US companies amounted to $2.4051 billion in 2025, a decrease of 1.0% compared to the $2.4302 billion recorded in 2024.

It also identifies five forces that continue to define the macroeconomic environment : asymmetric global growth; tighter financial conditions due to persistent inflation and rising public debt; the accelerated realignment of trade flows; labor market and productivity constraints; and energy price volatility.

The document also highlights that artificial intelligence has moved beyond the experimental stage to become a tool capable of generating measurable business returns through four capabilities: interpreting, predicting, recommending, and executing. However, it cautions that its adoption remains uneven, as some companies have integrated it into their core operations while others continue to use it only in isolated solutions.

In response to this environment, the report notes that companies are accelerating automation and digital investment to address labor constraints . It also recommends strengthening supply chain resilience, prioritizing asset productivity, expanding end-to-end visibility, and accelerating the return on investment in technology.

“This year’s report comes at a time when the forces reshaping global supply chains are no longer temporary disruptions, but permanent features of the operating environment,” said Korhan Acar, Kearney partner and lead author of the State of Logistics Report.

He added that rising costs stemming from energy volatility, inflation, and geopolitical instability are forcing companies to rethink their operating models, while technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous transportation are moving toward large-scale implementation.

For his part, Mark Baxa, president and CEO of CSCMP, noted that supply chains require constant adjustments due to the speed at which the business and geopolitical environment evolves, and therefore anticipated that logistics networks will continue to transform in the coming years.

Comment and follow us on LinkedIn:  @GrupoT21

El cargo Volatility redefines global logistics and forces a rethinking of supply chains apareció primero en T21.

Mexico climbed six positions in the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Confidence Index  compiled by the consultancy Kearney , moving from 25th place last year to 19th in 2026. This advance places it as the second fastest-growing country in the ranking , only behind Singapore, and in fifth place among emerging markets.

During the presentation of the indicator, Gerardo Rocha, managing partner of Kearney Mexico, highlighted that the United States maintains its first-place ranking, followed by Canada and Japan, while China occupies fourth position . For the first time in 13 years, Asia surpasses Europe in participation, with 10 countries included in the ranking compared to nine European countries.

In the exclusive ranking of emerging markets, Mexico ranks fifth, behind China, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil . Among the strengths highlighted by investors are the ease of doing business (31%) and the skilled workforce (28%).

Rocha also noted that industrial policy remains a key factor for investors when deciding where to allocate their capital . In fact, 84% of the investors surveyed considered this factor to be “very important” or “extremely important” when making their investment decisions.

“Another issue is which of these industrial policy options are most welcomed by investors, and which are not as positively received. We can see that among those that are much better rated is everything related to infrastructure development. When industrial policy includes infrastructure development, it leads to greater attraction for foreign direct investment,” he noted.

However, he indicated that challenges remain in maintaining competitiveness in key industrial sectors, especially in light manufacturing. To consolidate progress, it will be essential to promote technological innovation, improve regulatory efficiency, and strengthen the domestic economy .

He also noted that among the macroeconomic risks, geopolitical tensions persist (36%) , commodity price increases (30%), and political instability in developed markets (30%).

Rocha also noted that investors demand greater legal certainty and protection of property rights. Public-private partnerships and regional integration, such as the renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), will be crucial for securing long-term investments .

Furthermore, the executive noted that the most attractive industries for investment in Mexico are telecommunications, aerospace and defense, transportation, and private goods; he also indicated that the integration of supply chains in North America and the nearshoring trend reinforce its attractiveness in an uncertain global economy.

The report produced by Kearney has been conducted since 1998 and is based on surveys of more than 500 CEOs and directors of the world’s leading companies, all with a turnover exceeding $500 million.

Comment and follow us on LinkedIn:  @miroslavacallejas  /  @GrupoT21

El cargo Mexico among the top 20 destinations for foreign investment in 2026: Kearney apareció primero en T21.

This was warned by specialists during the presentation of the State of Logistics Report 2025 , presented at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) , in collaboration with Kearney and Penske Logistics .

Paul Bingham , director of Transportation Consulting at S&P Global Market Intelligence , explained that the economic environment has weakened significantly.

“The economy is not in crisis, but it has clearly weakened,” he said.

According to their analysis, US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to be just 1.3% in 2025 , while global GDP growth is projected to be 2.2% , the lowest rate since 2009 outside the context of the pandemic.

This implies lower aggregate demand, pressure on logistics margins, and a more adverse investment environment.

Furthermore, the high cost of money— derived from high interest rates—has directly impacted inventory management and capital decisions.

“We’re at a point where uncertainty is the only constant. Therefore, the supply chains that survive will be those capable of scenario planning and responding quickly to disruptions or abrupt changes in demand,” Bingham said.

Dynamic inventories and operational flexibility

One of the sectors most sensitive to this environment is retail .  Brendan Dillon , Senior Vice President of Global Inventory, Transportation, and Commerce Management at Target , explained how the company has redesigned its logistics strategy to adapt to changing consumer patterns.

“Consumers are prioritizing essential products and reducing discretionary spending. This directly affects our key categories,” he commented.

In this context, Target has opted for continuous planning , based on short cycles of inventory, demand, and transportation analysis.

“Our network is designed to adapt quickly. We maintain a combination of short- and long-term contracts, with a strategy that includes our own fleet and partnerships with reliable carriers. The goal is to ensure availability, speed, and cost efficiency,” he explained.

In this regard, the company has chosen to maintain long-term strategic relationships with its logistics partners.

“Trust is built on reliability. And loyalty is built on fair prices,” Dillon said.

Ports, between resilience and energy transition

For its part, the Port of Long Beach , one of the largest and most strategic in North America, has also had to adapt to the new normal.

Its director of operations, Noel Hacegaba , highlighted that, despite the drop in imports during 2023, volumes have regained strength.

“The US economy has proven surprisingly resilient. In May, we had our best month since 2020. This reflects a recovery in consumer spending and greater stability in supply chains,” he commented.

Hacegaba also emphasized the port’s long-term planning , which includes investments of $3.2 billion in infrastructure over the next decade .

These will focus primarily on expanding rail capacity and accelerating the transition to zero-emission operations.

“Currently, 25% of our cargo leaves by rail. We want to increase that figure to 35% to reduce our carbon footprint and improve logistics efficiency. We are convinced that the future of the port is intermodal, electric, and automated,” he stated.

3PLs, more than operators, strategic partners

In an environment of high operational complexity, third-party logistics providers (3PLs) have gained prominence as key allies in managing uncertainty.

Andy Moses , SVP of Strategy and Sales at Penske Logistics , said supply chains are facing unprecedented pressure to become more resilient, but also more efficient.

“Logistics is more important today than ever. Companies want flexibility, real-time visibility, and responsiveness. And that requires close collaboration between customers and logistics operators,” he emphasized.

Moses explained that customers demand integrated , data-driven solutions that can adapt to market fluctuations.

“It’s no longer enough to simply move merchandise. We must anticipate, redirect, optimize, and, above all, inform,” he said.

Along these lines, Korhan Acar , a partner at Kearney and lead author of the report, warned that the greatest potential for logistics efficiency lies not in the origin of the products, but in their transportation.

“The supply chain is increasingly decentralized, but logistics remains the major bottleneck,” he said.

One of the study’s key findings is the persistent inefficiency of backhaul : only 20% of return journeys are properly utilized.

“This represents a massive loss of value. With Artificial Intelligence (AI), we can redesign routes and loads to address this structural inefficiency,” he explained.

Acar also noted that the digital maturity of many companies remains low , as the adoption of generative AI, digital twins, and automation is underway but not yet uniform.

Experts agreed that in a challenging environment, the most successful companies will be those that plan with vision, collaborate intelligently, and embrace technology as a driving force for transformation .

“Every dollar invested in logistics today must yield double. And that can only be achieved with timely information, flexible processes, and a network aligned with the business,” said Acar.

Comment and follow us on X: @jenna_GH_/ @GrupoT21

El cargo The axes of logistics in 2025, navigating uncertain waters apareció primero en T21.

Global logistics is navigating increasingly turbulent waters. Geopolitical disruptions, trade tensions, regulatory restrictions, and extreme weather events have created a constantly uncertain environment for supply chains.

In this context, the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) , in collaboration with Kearney and Penske Logistics , presented the State of Logistics Report 2025 , an annual thermometer on the health and transformation of the logistics ecosystem, which this year is entitled Navigating through the fog .

“We expected greater visibility for 2024, but what we got was more fog. We entered 2025 with new complexities: protracted conflicts like those in Ukraine and the Middle East, blockages in strategic corridors like the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal, and a wave of tariff policies with profound implications for global flows,” explained Korhan Acar, a partner at Kearney and lead author of the report.

To respond to this changing context, the 2025 report incorporated a more robust methodology.

The firm has added Kearney Foresight , its forward-looking analysis division, to its team , specializing in modeling scenarios for systemic shocks.

In addition, the sample of interviews with logistics and transportation industry executives was doubled, allowing for a more precise identification of stress and resilience issues.

“Resilience has ceased to be a differentiator and has become an operational requirement. Efficiency or low costs are no longer enough; the chains that survive are those that can adapt quickly to any disruption,” said Acar.

Logistics costs grow and consolidate

One of the most significant findings is the increase in total logistics spending in the United States, which reached $2.3 billion , equivalent to 8.8% of nominal GDP.

This represented an increase of $135 billion compared to 2023 , marking a new structural level following the changes induced by the pandemic.

“We’re seeing a stabilization at a higher point. For many companies, logistics costs are no longer a secondary line of business; they’re now strategic, visible, and decisive for profitability,” Acar noted.

The report shows that trucking fell 0.7% in value due to a decrease in fares and overcapacity, although the market is beginning to stabilize.

Maritime transport saw the greatest growth, with a 93.1% increase in spending, driven by rate increases on Asia-US routes of up to 77% and a string of disruptions such as the Red Sea crisis, the drought in the Panama Canal, port congestion, and strikes on the US East Coast; even a tariff pause was enough to temporarily boost rates.

In parallel, air transport grew 8.6%, driven by e-commerce, express shipments, and diversions from maritime transport.

Although airfares fell 3%, high demand and fleet reductions by FedEx and UPS kept the sector under pressure.

Growth is expected to be 6% by 2025 , although reforms such as the de minimis reform could reduce international demand for small packages

In this regard, parcel delivery increased by 2.2%, driven by the continued growth of e-commerce , which represents 16.4% of retail sales in the United States and up to 50% in China.

Rail transport, meanwhile, grew modestly by 0.8%, with an 8% increase in intermodal volumes, although pressured by lower trucking rates.

General cargo volumes fell 3%, especially in coal, minerals, and metals. The outlook is cautious given truck competition and the weak industrial recovery.

In storage , the market stabilized and vacancy increased, but at a slower pace than in previous years. Rents grew by 5%, and subleases reached record levels.

Net takeup and new construction fell sharply. Contracts signed during the pandemic will expire in one to three years, which could lead to disruptions, and the popularity of bonded warehouses has also increased.

In terms of inventories , 58% of shippers maintained stable levels, while 27% reduced them and 15% increased them.

Although a destocking process was expected , it did not materialize due to front-loading in response to potential tariffs. The logistics inventory index rose from 60.7 to 73, indicating an expectation of expansion in the remainder of 2025.

One of the most striking findings is the so-called barbell effect on delivery speed.

On the one hand, giants like Amazon are consolidating consumer expectations of same-day or next-day delivery, which has become a key competitive differentiator. On the other hand, there is a solid consumer base that prioritizes cost over speed.

In this segment, delivery accuracy is more important than speed.

This change has opened the door to greater diversification of logistics providers.

Startups, carriers, and regional transporters are gaining ground against larger national carriers, as UPS strengthens its rural delivery network and Amazon expands its role as a third-party carrier nationwide.

From reshoring to friendshoring, the global network is reconfigured

Another relevant point of the report is the analysis of relocation strategies.

Far from a massive return of manufacturing to the United States , companies are opting for hybrid models, supplier diversification, expansion into politically neutral countries, and strengthening relationships with trading partners.

“Most aren’t looking to return all of their production. Even with 25% tariffs, the total cost of moving an operation can be higher than keeping it where it is, if there isn’t a clear business case,” Acar said.

He added that only in strategic cases, such as sensitive or high-tech products, is a more drastic measure justified.

In contrast, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the logistics sector slowed for the third consecutive year. Regulatory and geopolitical uncertainty led many companies to focus on protecting their operations and optimizing their installed base, rather than growing through acquisitions.

Evolution of 3PL and freight forwarding

3PLs (third-party logistics) and freight forwarders are seeing key growth as strategic partners.

Today’s complexity demands end-to-end solutions , accelerating the adoption of artificial intelligence and automation , as well as a transformation of business models toward more agile and flexible operations.

Investments focus on last mile , regional alliances, and automated warehousing.

The report highlighted a fundamental mindset shift : optimization is no longer a one-time exercise, but an ongoing process. Successful companies combine digital execution with more resilient and dynamic network models, ready to adapt in real time.

“Navigating through the fog requires not only more precise instruments, but also a different mindset. Companies that understand this will be better positioned to face what’s coming,” Acar said.

Comment and follow us on X: @jenna_GH_/ @GrupoT21

El cargo State of Logistics 2025: Navigating the Fog of Global Disruption apareció primero en T21.

After occupying the 21st place in the Kearney firm’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Confidence Index in 2024, Mexico fell to 25th place , that is, to the basement of this ranking in 2025, derived from the protectionist economic policy promoted by Donald Trump , president of the United States, with the collection of tariffs, which has caused businessmen to act with caution when choosing where to make their investments.

Although Mexico is at the top of the list of most attractive investment nations, the country remains one of the six emerging nations that make up the main index. The other countries are China, followed by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and India.

According to the Kearney FDI Confidence Index 2025: The Turning World report , the Americas have the largest number of emerging market markets, with eight, down one from last year, followed by Asia Pacific with seven, the Middle East and Africa with five, and Europe also with five.

Meanwhile, Kuwait and Bulgaria entered the Emerging Markets 25 Index for the first time.

It’s worth remembering that in 2003, Mexico had its highest ranking in the consulting firm’s rankings, ranking third among the most attractive countries for investment.

As for the main index, the United States and Canada, countries that make up the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and are the country’s main economic partners, lead the list for the third consecutive year, ranking first and second, respectively.

“Investors highlight the strength of U.S. technological innovation and the high quality of Canada’s infrastructure as key drivers for investing in these markets,” the report noted.

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Germany complete the top five on the list.

“Overall, developed markets continue to dominate the rankings, accounting for 19 of the top 25 markets in the global rankings, indicating that investors may be seeking perceived security and stability in a volatile world,” the firm emphasized.

Regarding the risks that concern investors, the consulting firm noted that these include rising commodity prices and geopolitical tensions due to increased global uncertainty, which could lead to supply chain disruptions.

“Thirty-eight percent of surveyed investors consider rising commodity prices most likely in the coming year, and 35 percent also cite increased geopolitical tensions as a likely development in 2025, seven percentage points higher than last year,” Kearney noted in its report.

According to Mexico’s  Ministry of Economy , in 2024 the country received 36.872 billion dollars (mdd) of FDI , which represented an increase of  2.3%  compared to 2023, when it was  36.058 billion dollars , reaching a new historical maximum.

The federal agency indicated that  the United States remained Mexico’s main investment partner,  accounting for  45%  of total flows, reaching  $16.513 billion . It was followed by Japan with 12% , Germany with 10% ,  Canada  with  9%  , and  the Netherlands  with  5%.

Comment and follow us on X: @GrupoT21

El cargo Mexico, at the bottom of the list of countries attractive to FDI; tariffs hit investor confidence apareció primero en T21.

After the different moments of disruption that have occurred over the last four years, especially with the pandemic, logistics costs in supply chains in the United States are decreasing, according to the State of Logistics 2024 from the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) , in conjunction with Penske and Kearney .

Josh Brogan, partner at Kearney, highlighted during the presentation that the study data is the result of a careful analysis of information, together with opinions from specialists in the logistics sector, which has allowed them to have an approach to the world of logistics.

“This report has a strong collaboration between the CSCMP party and Penske, providing an understanding of industry best practices to reach out to the broader community and provide information from the transportation provider’s point of view, through Penske, and from a combination of members and colleagues within CSCMP,” he said.

In this sense, the study showed that United States commercial logistics costs or USBLC (United State Business Logistics Costs) fell 10% to 2.4 trillion dollars or approximately 8.7% of GDP.

Brogan explained that this trend was seen coming after the impacts of covid in 2020, so logistics costs are now stabilizing in some modalities.

Storage costs decreased 13.9%, with historically high occupancy and rents, but declining rents and demand have created more difficult conditions than in previous years.

In the case of railways , costs fell 1.7%, mainly driven by intermodal transport , with profitability hit by a greater number of personnel, fuel and labor.

“Overall rail traffic has increased year over year, but what we see is an overall decline in revenue for Class 1 railroads – we saw a 2% decline in revenue, which translates to an 11% decline in operating income, driven by small increases in volume. Intermodal volumes have decreased considerably, 6% less than in 2022, resulting in a negative result overall, so the outlook for rail remains positive,” said Josh Brogan.The specialist added that the use of cross-border railways is beginning to be seen for different activities, such as manufacturing and localized production, so the rails benefit from that.

For its part, the cost of land transportation by truck decreased by 8.6%, as demand remains weak and capacity remains stable. Market exits in the face of weak demand are present, but at lower levels than expected.

Air freight , which has benefited in recent years from e-commerce, declined by 15.4% as cargo capacity in the bellies of passenger planes comes online and ocean carriers pivot to air cargo.

“For air travel we saw a double-digit decline in total spending in this mode and this comes from relatively high rates on the 20th, 21st and 2022, we saw those rates decrease to some extent in 2022, but we really saw them decrease in 2023 , and 2024 is starting to look a lot like 2023, we hope that there may be greater interest in air transport as we see disruptions in maritime mode,” Brogan noted.

For its part, spending on maritime transportation decreased by 64.2%, mainly due to the normalization of inflation in maritime rates and the reduction in container traffic.

“From a macroeconomic perspective, we are seeing that growth is expected to remain relatively weak until the end of the decade, this is a central driver of logistics activity, when the economy grows obviously so does the demand for logistics services,” said Josh Brogan.

Comment and follow us on X:  @jenna_GH_ / @GrupoT21

El cargo State of Logistics Report Observes Decreasing Logistics Costs apareció primero en T21.

Situation such as the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical context, as well as the trade war between the United States and China, which have jeopardized supply chains, have led phenomena like reshoring (bringing operations back to the home country) and nearshoring (relocation) to increase.

According to Kearney’s 2024 Reshoring Index, more than 90% of surveyed companies are considering or have already implemented reshoring or nearshoring initiatives.

Omar Troncoso, managing director of Kearney Mexico, pointed out that 28% of the executives interviewed have already relocated all or part of their manufacturing operations to the United States, while 11% of them have done so to other countries.

Currently, 79% of the respondents have relocated their operations to the United States, 27% to Mexico, 24% to Canada, and 20% to Central America and the Caribbean.

This, according to the study, benefits Mexico, as more than 85% of respondents intend to source materials and parts locally, suggesting a movement to bring the entire ecosystem closer.

“Every time a company is looking to relocate to the United States, a significant portion of its value chain has to come to Mexico because not everything can be automated, not everything can be done with low-cost labor, and at least initially to make it competitive,” said Omar Troncoso.

In this regard, 25% of companies have asked their Asian suppliers to relocate or open branches near the new locations of their manufacturing operations, and 53% of companies are evaluating asking their Asian suppliers to relocate or open branches near the new locations.

“A lot of the intellectual property was handed over to Asian suppliers and it’s very difficult to recover it. Many times companies bring in their Chinese suppliers because of the ease or because they already have their intellectual property,” the executive said. 

In this context, he indicated that as long as entrepreneurs are seeking relocation to the United States, Mexico will benefit, as a new investment can also mean that “the supplier that already exists in Mexico may receive a call to start supplying a factory that is in the United States.”

Comment and follow us on X: @jenna_GH_ / @GrupoT21

El cargo Reshoring in the United States benefits the industry in Mexico. apareció primero en T21.