For the first time in its 83 years of existence, the National Chamber of the Rubber Industry (CNIH) will be headed by a woman . Adriana Montelongo Jaime was appointed as the new general director of the institution, marking a milestone in the history of the rubber industry in Mexico, according to a press release issued by the CNIH.

Montelongo is an economist who graduated from the University of Guanajuato and holds a master’s degree in Applied Economics . Her academic career also includes training at institutions such as the University of Pittsburgh , CIMAT , CIDE , Banxico-UAM and ITAM .

Juan Pablo Ríos y Valles, president of the CNIH board, said that as a chamber they are convinced that Montelongo’s work and leadership will help position the development actions of the industry , as well as the values ​​of social responsibility, environmental and regulatory compliance before key actors in the country and abroad.

“Adriana’s work will be key to positioning and representing companies from different sectors related to the rubber industry in Mexico,” said Juan Pablo Ríos y Valles Boysselle.

His professional experience spans both the public and private sectors , working in different organizations, including the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) and the Mexican Council of the Consumer Products Industry (ConMéxico) .

In the statement, the CNIH also expressed its recognition of the work of Juan Carlos Tornel , outgoing director general, highlighting his leadership and commitment to the institution in challenging times.

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El cargo Historic change in the general direction of the CNIH apareció primero en T21.

In light of Donald Trump’s return to his second term as President of the United States, Arturo Sarukhán, President of Sarukhán and Associates , warned of the critical challenges that the bilateral relationship will face, in which he notes that the first few years will be crucial, with immediate actions in trade, migration and security, including the imposition of tariffs, mass deportations and possible unilateral operations against fentanyl laboratories in Mexico.

Speaking at the 2025 Economic Outlook Seminar organized by the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM) , Sarukhán stressed that the next four years will be critical, especially the first year, in which Trump will seek to measure the Mexican government’s response capacity through forceful actions.

As one of the main points to highlight, the specialist anticipated that the automotive and auto parts sector, as well as steel and aluminum, will be the first to face targeted tariffs , as part of a US reindustrialization strategy to repatriate investments.

According to Sarukhán, Mexico is not adequately prepared to face this challenge due to the lack of technical staff in the government following the administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

“Today, neither the Mexican private sector nor the government are understanding this challenge properly,” he said.

On the other hand, Trump could intensify deportations of undocumented migrants , sending thousands to Mexico every month, even from third countries, which could overwhelm the capacities of Mexican municipalities and border states.

“He’s not going to deport the 11.2 million undocumented immigrants, but he’s going to release five, 10 or 15 thousand a month,” he said.

Regarding security, Sarukhán said that Trump could pressure the Mexican government to accept joint operations against fentanyl laboratories.

If cooperation is not forthcoming, he warned of the possibility of unilateral actions by the United States, such as drone attacks on Mexican territory.

The Chinese threat and the USMCA

The growing Chinese manufacturing presence in Mexico is viewed with concern by the United States, especially in strategic sectors such as telecommunications, energy and lithium batteries .

In this regard, Sarukhán stressed the importance of working together with Washington to prevent this from derailing the review of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) in 2026.

“The Chinese manufacturing footprint in Mexico could be the Trojan Horse that contaminates the bilateral relationship,” he warned.

For this reason, Sarukhán presented a list of strategic actions that could help Mexico maintain a “healthy” relationship with its northern neighbor.

The expert mentioned that the country should not engage in public confrontations with Trump , in addition to rebuilding the capacities of the Mexican State, particularly in trade and migration.

On the other hand, Mexico must modernize its foreign policy and strengthen security cooperation and enhance diplomacy at the state level in the United States to strengthen alliances.

“If President Sheinbaum wants to avoid an earthquake in the bilateral relationship, she must make decisions that contravene even the legacies of the previous administration,” he said.

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El cargo Mexico-US Relationship Grows Tense and Complex with Trump’s Return apareció primero en T21.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is seeking to promote private investment, on the one hand, but on the other, the possible continuation of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s agenda suggests otherwise, said Guillermo Ortiz , former Secretary of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) and former Governor of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) .

At the conference Global and National Economic Environment , he said that the reforms to the Judiciary and the disappearance of autonomous bodies have led to an “erosion” of the institutional framework, the consequences of which are only just beginning to be seen.

At the 2025 Economic Outlook Seminar of the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM) , Ortiz indicated that it is necessary to make an adjustment in fiscal matters, and noted that social spending represents more than 30% of the spending made by the government, which leads to a downgrade and an increase in country risk.

“We have an unsustainable fiscal situation, in the sense that this year we are making a fiscal squeeze of about two points of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by cutting expenses,” he said, before which he reiterated that we must look towards private investment and increase tax collection.

In relation to the United States, he said that the arrival of Donald Trumpcauses more uncertainty in Mexico, since the country will face the negotiations of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) , scheduled for 2026, weakened by these reforms.

“Trump version 2.0 is Trump one, but corrected and augmented,” and among his proposals he speaks of territorial expansion, the use of force, as well as annexing Greenland, he recalled.

Organized crime , specifically fentanyl , as well as the issue of migration and security , are among the issues that Trump will put on the table in foreign policy with Mexico, and in the negotiation of the T-MEC, in the event of the imposition of tariffs .

“This presents risks, but also opportunities for Mexico to the extent that we reach cooperation agreements on security, on containing the expansion of the cartels. Effective cooperation with the United States in this area will be beneficial for Mexico,” Ortiz stressed.

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El cargo Sheinbaum seeks to promote private investment, although she acts in the opposite way: specialist apareció primero en T21.

Luis de la Calle, CEO and founding partner of De la Calle Madrazo Mancera , analyzed the commercial challenges and opportunities that Mexico will face in the coming years , highlighting the country’s economic slowdown and possible US tariff policies under the presidency of Donald Trump.

In his presentation at the 2025 Economic Outlook Seminar organized by the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM) , De la Calle noted that the Mexican economy is experiencing a slowdown , whose main driver, investment, has been affected.

“We thought 2024 would be a difficult year, but 2025 looks like it will be too,” he said.

He said this represents a major challenge for Mexico’s economic growth, as investment has been a fundamental pillar in previous years.

On the other hand, he addressed the trade policies that Donald Trump could implement during his presidency and identified tariffs proposed by the president-elect that will impact trade relations.

First, the tariffs conditioned on cooperation on migration and fentanyl that Trump has suggested imposing if Mexico and Canada do not cooperate.

“This tariff is not credible in the long term. It is not possible for the United States to impose tariffs only on Mexico and Canada, since both are key trading partners,” he said.

Despite this threat, the analyst believes that both countries, Mexico and Canada, would collaborate on these issues, which would make the proposed tariffs not have a lasting impact.

The specialist also analyzed the role of China in trade between the United States and Mexico , since, although Mexico has increased its imports from China, this increase has been marginal compared to other countries such as Vietnam.

“The growth of Chinese imports to Mexico has been limited, which means that it cannot be said that Mexico is acting as a platform for China,” said De la Calle.

Despite this, he stressed the importance of Mexico properly managing its trade relationship with China to avoid problems arising from US tariff policies.

De la Calle suggested that Mexico should adopt a policy of “ economic intelligence ” to efficiently manage investments coming from China and ensure that products manufactured in Mexico do not face additional tariffs from the United States.

He also recommended that Mexico and Canada maintain active collaboration on security and trade issues with the United States to avoid conflicts and trade retaliation.

“The bond market will be the one that disciplines governments in the coming years,” he said.

He stressed that financial pressures, driven by the interest rate differential between Mexico and the United States, could be a determining factor in the economic policy of both countries in the short and medium term.

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El cargo Potential Impacts of Tariffs Proposed by Donald Trump apareció primero en T21.

Ernesto Zedillo , former president of Mexico (1994-2000), proposed approving two transitional articles in the Constitution, which refer to the reform of the Judicial Branch , as well as the revocation of the mandate , promoted by Andrés Manuel López Obrador , to move towards a country in which democracy prevails and to stop what he considered “the destruction of norms and institutions.”

At the conference Challenges and dilemmas in the new geopolitics: Uncertainty and unprecedented risks , during a seminar on economic perspectives organized by the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM) , Ponce de León pointed out that the first article would be “to postpone the entry into force of what has been done since September, although it is not about eliminating it.”

“It would be a matter of opening up a space for deliberation, for analysis, to confirm or not that these reforms are in response to good objectives and not to the objective of building a tyranny in our country and destroying the already precarious rule of law that we have,” he said.

The other transitional article would be to nullify, to annul from the Constitution, the so-called revocation of mandate. “It is a cyanide pill that has been left in the Constitution, which has no justification in a presidential regime in which it still exists and I believe that it should exist in our country,” he stressed.

He said that what Mexicans need is a president who governs a country with democratic rules with great authority and power . “That is what we Mexicans need, we do not need a country that is a one-party autocracy, where the real and immense power is exercised by a leader installed hidden in the office attached to the Presidency of the Republic .

She also rejected what President Claudia Sheinbaum said a few days ago about Mexico being perhaps the most democratic country in the world.

“Mexico is not the most democratic country in the world now, but that is its aspiration and it is an aspiration that we Mexicans would support with great enthusiasm,” he said, adding that a country that does not have national unity will not be able to defend its sovereignty or its legitimate interests against the “reactionary forces that threaten to return to the world.”

The professor of Economics, Political Science and Environmental Studies at Yale University also considered that Mexico is facing an unfavorable panorama, since public security is being militarized , with a view to having a police state , in addition to destroying the professionalization of the Judicial Branch, to which is added the cancellation of the right of access to information with the disappearance of the National Institute of Transparency, Access to Information and Protection of Personal Data (INAI) .

The reforms of the late 20th century, with the participation of all political parties, corrected the historical anomalies of the autocracy. “All of that has been destroyed in recent months and a judicial counter-reform has been approved that destroys the professionalism and independence of the judiciary,” he said.

Ernesto Zedillo said that he is concerned that in just a few months, Mexico seems to have lost the category of being a democratic country , and he maintained that since September our country has become an autocracy of a dominant party like Morena.

He pointed out that when there are no fair rules or institutions in the country to ensure the application of the norms for carrying out a correct electoral competition and there is no independent judiciary, there can be no democracy.

He said that 2025 is a difficult year to talk about economic prospects “because we are seeing the creation of practically a perfect storm that could lead to the breakdown of the international order, which, with many flaws, has certainly sparked World War III.”

He said there is also uncertainty regarding the rhetoric that the president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump, has made against Mexico, such as the imposition of tariffs.

“We know that perhaps nothing will happen, it’s all a matter of threats and rhetoric, but I think we have grounds for serious concern, not only in Mexico, but in all of Latin America and all countries in the world,” he explained.

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El cargo Zedillo: Democracy Must Prevail Over Institutional Destruction in Mexico apareció primero en T21.

In the next negotiation of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) , scheduled for 2026, “we are going to move forward,” said Marcelo Ebrard , head of the Ministry of Economy , who considered that this trade agreement has been “a great business and a great success,” where Mexico has a favorable trend in several areas.

At the Mexico Trade Policy Stance conference , Ebrard indicated that our country is entering a new era in its relationship with its northern neighbor , and recalled that six years ago, when the agreement was being negotiated, it was also with President-elect Donald Trump , and whose starting point was that the then North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) had been the worst agreement on the matter in history, so they faced a complicated scenario.

He said things are different now because there is a consensus in the United States regarding protectionism and China. “It is no longer just the design of a policy of an incoming administration, it is a central political consensus that will direct the destiny of the economy at a global level.”

At the 2025 Economic Outlook Seminar , organized by the Association of Alumni of the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM) , Ebrard said that since the signing of the T-MEC, Mexico has done well so far, as has the United States.

In this regard, he shared some data that show the positive results of this trade agreement, including that the United States and Canada have more than 15 thousand manufacturing plants in our country , as well as that regional trade is 1.8 billion dollars , which represents an increase of 54% compared to 2019.

He stressed that the USMCA generates approximately 3.1 million dollars (mdd) per minute, making it “the best investment we have made.”

In his presentation, he gave as an example that of the main automotive importing companies in the United States ( General Motors , Stellantis and Ford ), 35% of the content of the vehicles assembled in Mexico is of American origin.

“It has been a great business, which explains why these companies have been able to survive, and we are now going to enter a scenario of greater competition for these companies, where any change you make in their relative costs will be a strategic disadvantage for the United States,” he stressed, and emphasized that Mexico is the leading importer and exporter of the United States.

Mexico is in a situation of economic strength , said Marcelo Ebrard, who pointed out that the unemployment rate in the country is lower than that of its northern neighbor, while foreign investment is historic for our country, reaching 35,737 million dollars , an increase of 9% over 2023.

Based on these figures, “you are entering into a negotiation where you are not in a situation of economic weakness that could put you in a more fragile negotiation,” said the head of the Economy, who highlighted that the increase in industrial and commercial construction is notable, and that Mexico is the 12th economy in the world .

Regarding security and migration, which will be part of the topics to be discussed in the USMCA negotiations, he said that deaths from fentanyl have been decreasing, so the trend is favorable, since Mexico has contributed to this reduction. “If this continues, it means that the security issue in the conversations is on a favorable trend for your counterpart, for your interlocutor,” he said.

Regarding arms control, Mexico will propose a symmetry in the effort to reduce its trafficking , since according to data from Customs and Border Protection (CBP) , from October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2025, Mexico has seized 3,602 firearms.

“The trend, thinking about our interlocutor in terms of security on this issue, is fortunately improving and the main issue that Mexico is raising is to help me control weapons,” he said.

During his participation, Marcelo Ebrard recalled that Foxconn is the main importer from China to Mexico, and is therefore a key partner that “will be a partner of Nvidia due to its installation in Jalisco.” He also said that General Motors is the main importer from the United States to Mexico.

Finally, he questioned the “aggressive” protectionist strategy in relation to Mexico and China, and assured that it is not possible to maintain low inflation and sustained growth with the United States. “If you are simultaneously very protective of Mexico and China, it is not compatible.

Meanwhile, Arturo Fernández , rector of ITAM, said that the economic outlook for 2025 is uncertain, bringing technological advances such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the United States-China trade conflict, which could be counterproductive for global supply chains.

The imposition of US tariffs will strengthen the dollar and improve the terms of trade to the detriment of other countries, he said, noting that Donald Trump’s mercantilism reflects his concern about trade deficits.

Mexico’s situation is delicate given the threats of the next US president , and he pointed out that the USMCA should be maintained for the benefit of both nations, so our country must be successful in the following negotiations. In addition, he suggested that talks be initiated to sign economic treaties with other countries, such as Korea, and said that distancing itself from the Chinese economy would have some repercussions for Mexico.

To address public policy problems, a broad debate is needed, he said, and indicated that tax collection, mainly of the Value Added Tax (VAT), must be improved.

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El cargo Mexico Poised for Success in Upcoming USMCA Review: Ebrard apareció primero en T21.