The Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP) anticipated a 0.2% monthly increase in consumption for February 2026, and also estimated a 2.1% annual growth rate , according to figures from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

Meanwhile, for March, the agency projected that the IOCP will not show changes on a monthly basis, which would reflect a slowdown in the pace of spending in Mexican households; while in its annual measurement it forecasts an increase of 2.1 percent.

For both months, the consumption index would stand at 112.4 points , which could signify a trend of stability, although without clear signs of expansion.

The Inegi estimates come in a context where the general annual inflation has remained on the rise, standing at 4.02% last February and at 4.59% in March of this year .

According to projections from the  International Monetary Fund (IMF) , inflation in Mexico could reach 3.9% in 2026, which anticipates an improvement in the face of the price increases of several products in the basic food basket during the first three months of the year.

Despite the slight growth of the IOCP, Mexican consumers continue to show restraint when acquiring goods and services, resulting from a less dynamic Mexican economy, and have therefore adopted new forms of consumption, opting for lower-cost products and reducing their expenses .

The IOCP aims to provide timely and accurate estimates of private consumption, which is one of the country’s economic drivers, Inegi emphasized.

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El cargo Mexicans open their wallets; they anticipate growth in private consumption in February apareció primero en T21.

Despite the fact that in January 2026 inflation stood at 3.79% at an annual rate , which meant an increase of 0.38% compared to December 2025, Mexicans opened their wallets in the first month of the year, defying the January slump.

According to the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP), the acquisition of goods and services in the country would have increased 4.7% year-on-year in January , according to figures from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

In February 2026, this indicator would also have shown positive figures, registering an annual increase of 3.5% .

Conversely, on a monthly basis, the IOCP predicted a slowdown of 0.6% in the first month of the year , while for February it projected an increase of 0.1 percent .

“Private spending during February was affected by disruptions to economic activity resulting from the episodes of violence and blockades recorded in the country during the month, particularly in the Bajío-West region,” the financial institution BBVA noted .

The IOCP aims to provide timely and accurate estimates of private consumption , which is one of the country’s economic drivers, according to Inegi.

Measuring this economic indicator is key in Mexico, as it represents around 70% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) , and it also helps to understand the population’s economic capacity to acquire  goods  and  services.

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El cargo Mexicans defy the January financial strain; private consumption accelerates at the start of 2026 apareció primero en T21.

In that regard, the  Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP)  estimated an increase in consumption of 3.2% annually  for October 2025 , as well as  2.6%, also at an annual rate, for November , according to figures from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

On a monthly basis, the IOCP predicted a rise of  0.3%  in the tenth month of the year, while for November it projected a decline of 0.1 percent.

The IOCP aims to provide timely and accurate estimates of private consumption, which is one of the country’s economic drivers, according to Inegi.

Private consumption  is  a  key  economic indicator in Mexico, as it represents around 70% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) . 

The gradual recovery of household income has boosted consumption, with services being the segment with the greatest potential.

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El cargo Private consumption in Mexico is expected to rebound during October apareció primero en T21.

The  Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP)  anticipated a 0.2% monthly increase in consumption for August 2025, and estimated that it will not show any change at the annual rate, according to figures from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .

For September, INEGI projected that the IOCP will rise by 0.1% monthly and 0.6% annually.

The IOCP estimates come in a context where inflation began to rise, reaching 3.57% annual rate last August, and 3.76% in September .

This reflects that consumers continue to exercise restraint when purchasing goods and services, driven by a complex economic landscape.

In response, Mexicans have adopted new forms of consumption, leaning toward lower-cost products and reducing their expenses .

“57% of Mexican consumers are buying products from cheaper brands, while 52% will start buying products with the “ Made in Mexico” seal , due to the threat posed by the United States’ tariff policy,” said the consulting firm Kantar .

According to INEGI, the IOCP aims to provide timely and accurate estimates of private consumption, which is one of the driving forces of the Mexican economy.

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El cargo Slight growth in private consumption in Mexico expected in August apareció primero en T21.

Although inflation in Mexico has remained relatively stable, reaching 3.51% in its annual measurement last July, consumers continue to show restraint when it comes to spending on goods and services.

Along these lines, the  Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP)  anticipated a decrease in consumption of  0.7% at  an annual rate  for July 2025 , as well as  0.7% annually for August , according to figures from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

Meanwhile, on a monthly basis, the IOCP forecast a  0.7% decline  in the seventh month of the year, while for August it estimated it would remain unchanged.

The IOCP’s purpose is to provide timely and accurate estimates of private consumption, which is one of the country’s economic drivers, INEGI explained.

Faced with rising prices for various products, Mexicans have changed their purchasing habits, prioritizing cheaper supplies, according to the consulting firm Kantar .

Factors such as inflation, slower growth, low employment prospects, and external pressures have impacted consumer confidence, leading to reduced spending.

In this sense, stores that offer deep discounts, such as Tiendas 3B ,  Neto , and others, have gained preference among Mexican consumers, the consulting firm stated.

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El cargo Private consumption in Mexico expected to decline in July apareció primero en T21.

In this context, the  Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP)  predicted a 0.1% annual decline in consumption for June 2025, and a  0.4% annual decline  for July, according to figures from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .

In its monthly measurement , the IOCP predicted a 0.3% increase  in the sixth month of the year, while for July it also estimated an increase of 0.6 percent .

According to information from the consulting firm Kantar , six out of 10 Mexicans have changed their purchasing habits and are opting for more affordable products .

According to the firm, inflation, slower growth, low employment prospects, and external pressures are impacting consumer confidence, leading to reduced spending .

Among the habits that Mexican consumers have acquired are that 57% are buying products from cheaper brands , and that 52% will begin purchasing products with the Made in Mexico seal , due to the threat posed by the United States’ tariff policy.

In light of this, the study revealed that retail chains that offer deep discounts, known as hard discounters , such as 3B stores , Neto , and others, have gained ground in the preference of Mexican consumers.

“After several years of moderate expansion,  hard discounters  increased their number of branches by 19% from 2023 to 2025,” the consultancy noted.

The IOCP’s purpose is to provide timely and accurate estimates of private consumption, INEGI explained.

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El cargo Private consumption in Mexico weakens in June apareció primero en T21.

In this context, the  Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP)anticipated a decrease in consumption of  0.8%  at an annual rate for April 2025, as well as  0.5%  annually for May, according to figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .

Meanwhile, in its monthly variation, the IOCP forecast a  0.1% increase  in the fourth month of the year, while no growth was recorded for May.

The outlook for a slowdown in various industries and an increasing inflationary environment have affected consumer confidence, who have changed some of their habits by seeking more affordable and convenient options for their pockets, even cutting back on entertainment expenses outside the home, according to the consulting firm Kantar .

On June 11, the  World Bank (WB) lowered its economic growth forecast for Mexico for 2025, from 1.3% to just  0.2% , as a result of rising trade tensions and greater global uncertainty stemming from political conditions that have worsened the global economy, which has also worsened consumption.

For its part, the  Bank of Mexico (Banxico)  also lowered its economic growth forecast for the country from  0.6% to 0.1%  for 2025.

The central bank estimated that one of the reasons for this projection is the slowdown of the Mexican economy, resulting from various factors, including the threat of US tariffs.

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El cargo Mexicans are “AFRAID” to open their Wallets; Private Consumption Falls in April apareció primero en T21.

Mexican consumers remain cautious about purchasing goods and services, as the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP)  forecasts a 2.2% annual decline for February 2025 and a 2.5% annual decline for March.

According to figures from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) , on a monthly basis, this indicator forecasts a  0.2% increase  in February, while a  0.1% decrease is estimated for March .

According to the aforementioned data, private consumption performance weakened in the first months of 2025, amid a context where headline inflation rose for the second consecutive month last March, reaching 3.8% annually, following the rise seen in February, when it reached 3.77% annually.

It is worth remembering that on March 27, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) lowered the interest rate to 9% , which was its sixth consecutive cut and the second of 50 basis points , in an environment of uncertainty caused by the United States tariff plan, which was paused for 90 days, although China did not enter this grace period.

According to the financial institution  UBS , despite this truce, “the damage has already been done,” and it estimated that there will be a serious impact on global growth, as it is unclear whether taxes will not increase again. It also indicated that the uncertainty will negatively affect economic activity, which will impact the consumption of goods and services.

International organizations such as  Fitch Ratings  and the  Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have projected that Mexico could enter a recession due to the tariff plan proposed by Donald Trump , President of the United States.

According to Inegi, the IOCP presents an advance estimate of the  Monthly Private Consumption Indicator (IMCP) , and its purpose is to provide timely and accurate estimates of private consumption in Mexico.

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El cargo Mexican consumers remain cautious in their purchases; the indicator predicts a decline in March. apareció primero en T21.