Because uncertainty will continue to hold back Mexico’s economic activity, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its growth projection for the country from 1.6% to 1.2% in 2026 , although it estimated that conditions exist for a moderate recovery driven by less restrictive domestic policies.

In the “World Economic Outlook Update: The global economy between the crosswinds of war and technology”, the organization also lowered its estimate of the Mexican economy for 2027, from 2.2% to 1.9 percent .

If the international organization’s projections materialize, slower growth in the Mexican economy would translate into a setback and stagnation in various sectors of the country, such as decreased household consumption, a drop in employment, and less foreign and domestic investment, among other factors. Despite these estimates, Mexican authorities have indicated that the country’s economy will perform better.

Regarding global growth , he estimated it will be 3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, figures that represent a reduction from the average of 3.5% observed in 2024–2025.

This slight slowdown is due to the fact that the effects of the war in the Middle East are partly offset by the greater impetus that demand gives to the global technology cycle thanks to advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and its adoption.

“The impact varies considerably depending on the degree to which each country is exposed to war and its position in the technological value chain,” the report noted.

For advanced economies , growth rates of 1.7% are projected for 2026 and 1.8% for 2027.

In the case of the United States , he estimated that growth will be 2.3% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. “Activity is supported by fiscal policy and favorable financial conditions, as well as by continued investment in technology by companies and strong productivity,” he said.

In the euro area , growth will be 0.9% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, stemming from a significant negative impact carried over from the first quarter, largely attributable to Ireland, but also indicating a moderation of momentum elsewhere. “This is compounded by the drag imposed by rising energy costs—despite some fiscal mitigation measures—and weak consumer confidence.”

China ‘s growth is projected to slow to 4.6% in 2026, as economic activity is expected to be hampered by rising global oil prices, prolonged uncertainty, and structural obstacles.

In Latin America and the Caribbean,  growth is expected to remain stable at 2.4% in 2026 and then increase moderately to 2.7% in 2027, with different dynamics among countries.

The IMF warned that an escalation of international conflicts could lead to further increases in oil prices , put pressure on inflation, prolong commodity price volatility, exacerbate factors that threaten supply chains, raise prices and negatively impact financial conditions in various countries.

In that regard, he estimated that global headline inflation will rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, before falling to 3.9% in 2027. “These projections indicate that the disinflation trend observed since the beginning of 2024 has stalled.”

The IMF noted that trade tensions could reignite —especially if trade diversion or trade imbalances lead more economies to raise tariffs and adopt non-tariff barriers— and weigh on growth.

“Measures targeting sectors in the early stages of production chains or critical intermediate inputs could cause supply bottlenecks, with disproportionately severe effects on output and prices. Retaliatory measures would amplify these costs and could disrupt global supply chains,” he estimated.

Nevertheless, he indicated that global growth could exceed forecasts if tangible progress is made in international negotiations and national policy agendas.

“If a lasting peace agreement is reached, global trade routes and supply chains could be quickly restored. Trade agreements could reduce tariffs and revive investments that have been postponed due to the uncertainty of the external environment,” he stressed.

In that regard, he indicated that international cooperation remains essential to managing the “contagion effects,” including pressures in commodity markets, refugee flows, and debt vulnerabilities, and called for avoiding export bans so as not to exacerbate the difficulties faced by trading partners.

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El cargo Uncertainty will continue to hold back Mexico’s economy: IMF apareció primero en T21.

The Mexican economy could grow by 1.6% this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated , which would mean a gradual recovery amid a context marked by adjustments in public finances, high interest rates, an adverse international trade environment and geopolitical conflicts such as the one in the Middle East.

According to the World Economic Outlook report , the international organization indicated that Mexico will experience a slight economic recovery in 2026 after less dynamism in 2025.

By 2027, it projected a better environment for the Mexican economy, which could grow by 2.2% , but remaining cautious about an uncertain economic outlook, stemming from trade barriers and the conflict in the Middle East “which significantly counteracts favorable factors, due to its impact on commodity markets, inflation expectations and financial conditions.”

The IMF’s projections remain below the estimates of  Mexico’s Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) , which forecasts growth of between 1.8% and 2.8% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP); while for 2027 it estimates that it will be between 1.9% and 2.9%, supported by consumption, employment and public and private investment in strategic sectors.

Under this scenario, the federal agency has indicated that the Mexican economy will resume a more dynamic trajectory in 2026 and 2027.

However, some indicators, which serve as a barometer for the Mexican economy, show no recovery. In this regard, although the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP), prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , anticipated a 0.2% monthly increase in consumption for February 2026 and a 2.1% annual increase, Mexican household spending continues to be cautious.

And the global economy?

The IMF report estimated 2.3% growth for the US economy in 2026 and 2.1% for next year. For Canada , it forecasts 1.5% growth this year and 1.9% in 2027. China is projected to grow by 4.4% in 2026 and 4% in 2027.

The international organization  stressed that the international outlook remains subject to  risks and uncertainty , due to tensions in the Middle East and their potential effects on energy and financial markets, and therefore projected that the global economy will grow 3.1% this year and 3.2% in 2027 , below the average observed in the last two years (in 2025 alone it was 3.4%).

The forecast for 2026 has been revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points, and the forecast for 2027 shows no changes compared to the update of January 2026.

“The downward revision to 2026 is mainly due to disruptions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, offset in part by the carryover effect of recent positive data and reduced tariff rates,” the report stated.

The IMF considered that geopolitical tensions could worsen further , potentially leading to an outbreak of internal political tensions.

“The factors of political tension can be complicated by changes in trade policies and other international policies. Regardless of how the geopolitical situation evolves, trade disputes could reignite,” he stressed.

The IMF report comes against a backdrop of rising commodity prices and more restrictive financial conditions that are testing global trade and economic resilience.

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El cargo Amid global tensions, the IMF forecasts slight growth for the Mexican economy in 2026. apareció primero en T21.

Trade between Mexico and the United States increased by 3.3% in the period from January to September 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. This increase was driven by a 5.5% rise in Mexican exports to the United States, while exports to Mexico increased by 0.1% during the same period, according to data from the United States Department of Commerce (DOC) .

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) , Mexico’s economy will grow by 1.5% by 2026 compared to 2025, while the United States’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will advance by 2.1%, based on the same multilateral organization.

In this context, the prospects for growth in trade between Mexico and the United States will advance in a moderate scenario at 6%, however, it could increase to a double-digit level, derived from market conditions that can vary dynamically , considered Calvin Rackley, regional vice president of Operations at Averitt .

From Rackley’s perspective, Averitt has developed a business network and infrastructure capable of supporting the growth dynamics of its clients, and thereby capitalizing on market growth.

As part of the strategy, the expansion of its distribution & fulfillment center in San Antonio, Texas was inaugurated , which allows for the management of cargo coming from the Texas-Mexico border, and helps to decongest trade through the port of Laredo, with a future vision for the growth of activity between both countries.

The San Antonio distribution center has 85,000 square feet (7,896 m2) and 80 loading docks for distribution and fulfillment activities, offering logistics close to the border and what happens in Mexico.

In addition to the above, Averitt has expanded its portfolio to include dry goods handling, warehousing, and other services. “Besides San Antonio, we have added locations in Laredo, Austin, and Dallas, with the goal of offering better alternatives to our customers,” Rackley emphasized.

In addition to this infrastructure, expansion works are planned for the warehouses in Corpus Christi and Harlingen (Texas), which will allow for greater capacity, ” so that when customers need it they can use the capacity they require , this will improve the efficiency of their cross-border operations and guarantee a good return on investment,” Calvin Rackley stated.

Averitt has approximately 8,500 employees, including operators and associates, and its facilities total approximately four million square feet, with the capacity to serve the central and southeastern United States and its connection to the markets of Canada and Mexico.

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El cargo Averitt will maintain the acceleration of trade between Mexico and the US. apareció primero en T21.

The Mexican economy could grow 0.2% this year, despite the uncertainty generated by tariffs around the world, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) update published Tuesday.

According to the analysis, this increase represents a 0.5% increase compared to its previous report in April, when it estimated that Mexico’s economy would contract 0.3%.

The report indicated that Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would also show positive signs for 2026, with a projected growth of 1.4 percent .

In the Latin American and Caribbean region , the international organization forecast economic growth of 2.2% for this year, 0.2 percentage points higher than anticipated in April.

By 2026, the International Monetary Fund expects the situation in the region to improve, and has therefore anticipated a 2.4 percent increase in GDP.

The forecast for advanced economies is for growth of 1.9% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026.

The United States is expected to be the best performer in this area, with a projected 1.9% increase for this year and 2% for 2026.

“In the United States, real GDP declined at an annualized rate of 0.5%, marking the first quarterly contraction in three years. Consumer spending increased by just 0.5%, but this comes after posting very rapid 4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2024,” the document detailed.

Furthermore, global growth rates are projected at 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, an upward revision from the estimates in last April’s edition of the report.

“Global growth is expected to slow as the apparent resilience stemming from trade distortions is waning. The forecasts of 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026 are below the 3.3% observed in 2024 and the pre-COVID-19 historical average of 3.7%, but are higher than the April baseline forecast,” the report noted.

The agency stated that this was due to the advance of imports before the tariff increases, as well as lower effective tariff rates , improved financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some important jurisdictions.

Meanwhile, in terms of global trade volume , the IMF estimated a 0.9 percentage point increase in 2025 and a 0.6 percentage point decrease in 2026.

“The short-term momentum from the frontloading of certain trade flows is expected to dissipate in the second half of 2025 due to heightened trade policy uncertainty and the prospect of increased trade restrictions, with consequences expected to materialize throughout 2026,” the report stated.

The IMF explained that the outlook continues to be affected by the potential increase in tariffs , increased uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions. “Restoring confidence, predictability, and sustainability remains a top policy priority,” it emphasized.

The organization warned that, despite a better balance sheet, “geopolitical tensions could disrupt global supply chains and increase commodity prices.”

It’s worth remembering that the United States has launched a global tariff war by levying taxes on various products imported into the United States, which affects Mexico, one of its main trading partners.

Mexico, like other countries, is waiting to reach an agreement with the United States on tariffs to avoid the 30% tariff that the United States announced to the Mexican government in a letter on July 12, and which would be implemented on August 1.

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El cargo IMF projects Mexican economic growth for this year apareció primero en T21.