The Transport and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL) returned to negative territory in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), reflecting the uncertainty in this industry. This follows a recovery in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25), when the index had even surpassed 80 points .

Based on the ICTYL report for Q1 2026, the confidence index stood at 75.1 points, the second worst record since the third quarter of 2020, the year in which the COVID-19 pandemic was faced.

The ICTYL is the only confidence indicator in the transport and logistics industry, developed by T21 Business Intelligence  with the aim of monitoring the pace followed in this important economic sector, for which more than 140 managers and entrepreneurs linked to the provision of logistics and transport services, as well as users of these means, are consulted.

According to ICTYL, business confidence optimism fell below zero, registering at -5.70 points . In this category, all values ​​above zero indicate optimism .

When participants were asked how they assessed the pace of business in Q1 2026, 65.4% reported it as “unfavorable .” Meanwhile, for the second quarter of 2026 (Q2 2026), 61.5% of participants have a “favorable” outlook.

Revenue levels are another factor that highlights the industry’s pace. When ICTYL members were asked how revenue levels performed in Q1 2026 compared to Q1 2025, 46.2% of respondents indicated a decrease .

It is worth noting that in response to the same question, 19.2% reported that their billing activity grew between 5% and 10%. Considering all growth responses, it was found that 30.8% of participants increased their billing by 5% to more than 15%, according to ICTYL.

Among the risk factors that could pose a threat to the company’s growth, insecurity did not rank among the top concerns ; in fact, it was the fifth risk identified, with only 9.3% of the responses.

The main risk considered was the “Pace of the national economy”, which captured 19.4% of the responses . “Increased operating costs” contributed 17.6%, “Political uncertainty” 14.8%, and “Weak demand” 13%.

According to the Global Business Confidence Opinion Indicator (IGOEC) of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the confidence of Mexican businessmen fell 0.2 points in April 2026 in relation to last March and also decreased 0.4 units at an annual rate.

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In a video shown to an audience specializing in intermodal transportation in Mexico, a private car is seen passing a tractor-trailer traveling on a highway on the right in broad daylight, pulling in front of it to force it to stop abruptly. Three men armed with machine guns get out and do nothing to seize control of the truck.

In the cab, the driver’s first reaction was to raise both hands and try to dodge the bullets and the shower of glass. Meanwhile, the attackers boarded the vehicle, dragged the driver out of his seat, and immediately replaced him with one of the gang members.

The video of the crime, which lasts no more than 30 seconds, ends when both vehicles start off again, but another tractor-trailer joins them. This is the vehicle they will later use to hook up and transport the stolen box… perhaps to a safe place.

Modus operandi in transition

In Mexico, the trend in thefts in the freight transport sector in recent years has shifted more toward assaults on vehicles in transit. Skyangel , a company dedicated to corporate risk management, states that 7.6 out of every 10 criminal acts today are carried out in this manner.

“The issue of theft from units in transit is the one that has been occurring at a much higher rate,” said Ariel Arriaga, Director of Business and Operations at Skyangel, during the monthly meeting of the Mexican Intermodal Transport Association (AMTI) , who has highlighted that previously the majority of these attacks occurred at bus stops or rest areas, but transport companies and their monitoring centers have integrated a series of protocols for when the units are there, such as total blockades, which has caused organized crime to opt for the in-transit mode.

Other more common forms of theft in Mexico occur when a vehicle is stopped at a fake police checkpoint on the highways; or when drivers are parked outside the facilities of the companies where they will unload the goods, i.e., a distribution center. However, the risk increases when they are subjected to long waits for service.

However, Ariel Arriaga also spoke about the risk posed by infiltration by individuals connected to organized crime , such as drug cartels, who compromise the security of information related to the transportation of goods, from their classification and value to the routes and schedules they take.

“This is something we need to work on with our own transportation corridors, ensuring clean supply chains,” the Skyangel executive stated, but also noted that other participants in the supply chain must address this issue, given the proliferation of drug cartels and their influence on transportation and logistics activities, both in export and import transit, which contaminate the supply chain with illicit goods.

In the country, more and more companies have opted to implement standards such as ISO 28000 in their administrative and operational activities , designed to help companies efficiently manage supply chain security, or to protect their technological incursions with ISO 27001 , for information security management.

These same standards are seen as a preamble to obtaining government certifications focused on the security of a company’s supply chain, such as the Customs Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (CTPAT) in the United States, or the Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) in Mexico, which follows the guidelines agreed upon by the World Customs Organization (WCO) .

The thefts of merchandise from the food and beverage, construction, textile and clothing, electronics, pharmaceutical and automotive parts industries stand out in this problem , and they provide a large part of the almost nine thousand investigation files that were opened last year, according to data from the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System (SESNSP) , an office attached to the Ministry of the Interior (Segob) .

“The entire northern part (of the country), which has more than three thousand kilometers of border with the United States, where the main crossing is, where we have these impacts due to drug trafficking, we don’t have as many cargo thefts, speaking of the truck, it is always concentrated in the ports, main airports, at the entrances to the conurbated municipalities to Mexico City, the State of Mexico, which is where the most violent part of the attacks themselves has been and has always been, and that is what we have to work on as well, in that sense, with the same authority so that we have better conditions and can recover much more product,” said Ariel Arriaga.

In this context of highway security crisis, the Mexican government’s latest major effort to curb robberies on federal highways has been the implementation of road markings for trucking vehicles. That is, companies wishing to join the efforts of the National Guard , specifically in Operation Balam (which uses a panic button installed on drivers’ cell phones to alert and request support from authorities in the event of a robbery) , must paint or place banners on the awnings and sides of their towing vehicles, depending on their configuration, with alphanumeric data corresponding to their license plates for rapid identification “at a glance,” using drones or helicopters.

It should be noted that marking, also proposed by the General Directorate of Federal Motor Transport (DGAF) , an office of the Secretariat of Infrastructure, Communications and Transportation (SICT) , is not mandatory, nor will there be penalties for companies that decide not to participate.

“What we see is that in very few cases, drivers press the panic button because the situation itself doesn’t allow them to. If there’s an attack, the first thing they do is raise their hands and not risk their lives,” said Ariel Arriaga.

The technological response

In contrast, the efforts developed by the private sector in Mexico are more aligned with the incorporation of solutions that integrate cutting-edge technologies, such as the use of the Internet of Things (IoT) or Artificial Intelligence (AI).

“Today, there is enough technology to equip both the towing equipment and the truck itself, in addition to safeguarding the safety of the driver,” Arriaga emphasized to the AMTI members.

He even explained that in response to so-called jammers (devices used by criminal groups to inhibit the signals from devices installed in vehicles that detect any anomaly and act accordingly), a strategy has been developed in which the devices emit different radio frequencies that are not able to disable the jammers .

“I understand the cost issue, but it’s also an investment the carrier makes to protect its team. Clients must also protect their merchandise; they know the risks they face, and we’re all working for them . So, ultimately, we’re looking for better communication, greater effectiveness in that regard, and ways we can recover our costs,” Arriaga said.

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