Inflation in Mexico accelerated again last February, driven by the rise in agricultural products, after the increase shown last January, when it stood at 3.79% at an annual rate, according to data published this Monday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

According to the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), which measures the variation in prices of a basket of goods and services, in the second month of the year this indicator stood at 4.02% in its annual measurement .

The core price index – which does not take into account the most volatile goods and services – increased 0.46% monthly and 4.50% annually, with a rise in the prices of goods of 0.39% and an increase in the prices of services of 0.52% on a monthly basis.

The non-core price index —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations—rose 0.64% month-on-month and 2.44% year-on-year. Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices increased 4.94%, while energy and regulated tariffs rose 0.02% month-on-month.

Products that impacted inflation

In February of this year, the products that showed the greatest price increases were lemons with a rise of 25.97%, tomatoes with 22.51%, potatoes and other tubers with 20.86%, green tomatoes with 18.89%, and bananas with 10.79%.

Conversely, the products with the greatest decrease in their cost during the cycle were onions with 8.40%, serrano peppers with 6.76%, zucchini with 4.70%, eggs with 2.63%, LP domestic gas with 1.84%, and chicken with 1.29 percent.

Inflation did not affect the entire country uniformly. The states with variations above the national average were Veracruz,  Tlaxcala, and Puebla . Conversely, the states that reported the smallest increases were Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, and Baja California .

According to an analysis by  Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (BX+) , the inflationary outlook has recently deteriorated due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the consequent increase in international energy prices, coupled with the reluctance to lower underlying inflation.

Month-over-month growth was the highest for a February since 2023. Notable increases were seen in the prices of fruits and vegetables (tomatoes, potatoes, tomatillos, lemons). As is typical in the first months of the year, the prices of educational services (university) also increased, he noted.

“The inflationary outlook is more complex, given the reduced slack in the economy, wage pressures, and now, higher international prices for energy products,” BX+ emphasized.

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The increase in the minimum wage that came into effect on January 1, 2026, represents progress for the purchasing power of workers; however, its impact must be analyzed with a regional perspective, particularly in the Northern Border Free Zone, where economic conditions differ from the rest of the country, warned Alfredo Valadez García, a researcher at the School of Administration and Business of CETYS University , Tijuana Campus.

Nationally, the minimum wage increased from 278.80 to 315.04 pesos per day, while in the border region it rose from 419.88 to 440.87 pesos per day, equivalent to just over 13,000 pesos per month. Although the adjustment in the border region was smaller in percentage terms, the expert pointed out that it should be interpreted in light of the socioeconomic context of states like Baja California, where extreme poverty levels are below the national average.

“The public debate often focuses on whether raising the minimum wage generates inflation, but recent evidence shows that the effects on prices have been marginal. The real challenge now is the sustainability of this policy in regions with high international integration, such as the northern border,” explained Valadez García.

The academic noted that, since 2018, the minimum wage in Mexico has registered real growth exceeding 100% without triggering an inflationary spiral , and has also contributed to poverty reduction, particularly in the period following the COVID-19 pandemic. However, he stressed that the analysis should be broadened to include a comparative international context.

Despite recent increases, Mexico continues to rank in the lower-middle range globally in terms of labor compensation. According to comparisons by organizations such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) , the country maintains average wages below most of its members and lags behind Latin American economies like Chile and Colombia when considering variables such as hourly wage and purchasing power. This gap, he stated, reflects that the wage challenge in Mexico is structural and cannot be resolved solely through increases in the minimum wage.

In this context, Valadez García warned that, although wage policy has shown positive effects, significant challenges remain . Among these, he cited the wide wage gap with the United States and Canada, the risk that rapid increases without parallel improvements in productivity could incentivize informality and negatively impact micro and small businesses, and the need to consider the political and trade environment, especially given the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) .

For Baja California, the specialist noted that the sustained reduction of extreme poverty in recent years suggests that the minimum wage has been an effective tool, although insufficient on its own.

“The challenge for the border region is not only to increase income, but to make it compatible with productivity, formality, and international competitiveness,” he pointed out.

He also argued that the increase in the minimum wage should be understood as part of a comprehensive economic strategy that takes into account regional particularities and prioritizes the balance between social welfare and long-term economic viability, especially in areas closely linked to international trade, such as the northern border.

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