In April 2026, Mexico’s annual general inflation rate stood at 4.45% , breaking a streak of three consecutive months of increases, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported on Thursday .

This result stemmed from a decrease in the non-core price index (goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations) which fell 0.18% on a monthly basis.

Domestically, energy prices and government-regulated tariffs fell 1.03%, primarily due to adjustments in electricity rates in 18 cities across the country, as part of the summer season pricing scheme. Meanwhile, fruit and vegetable prices rose 3.47% month-on-month.

Meanwhile, the  core price index —which does not take into account the most volatile goods and services— increased 0.31% month-on-month, with the cost of goods and services rising 0.31 percent.

Although inflation slowed down last April compared to the 4.59% annual rate of March 2026, the price of some basic goods registered increases.

During the period, the poblano pepper increased its cost by 41.42% monthly, the serrano pepper showed an increase of 36.27%, the tomato by 19.25%, potatoes and other tubers by 12.23%, high octane gasoline by 6.16% and urban bus fares by 3.44% on a monthly basis.

Conversely, the products with the greatest price decrease during the cycle were  green tomato with 34.80%, zucchini with 18.57%, lemon with 14.58%, electricity with 14%, air transport with 7.52% and egg with 3.48% monthly.

Among the states with the largest monthly increases in the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) were Durango, Jalisco, and Zacatecas. Meanwhile, Tabasco, Yucatán, and Campeche were among the states with variations below the national average.

The result for April 2026 represents the first month, so far this year, that inflation shows a drop, since last January it stood at 3.79%, in February it stood at 4.02% and in March at 4.59% at an annual rate.

Industry analysts, such as Grupo Financiero BASE , have estimated that inflation will close 2026 at 4.2%, which would mean an increase in the costs of various products.

According to Inegi, the INPC is a measure of the average change in the prices of the products that make up a basket of goods and services representative of the consumption of households in the country over time.

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Inflation in Mexico reached 3.72% in the first half of December 2025 , due to the increase in the cost of some products such as air transport and package tourist services, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

According to the agency, during that period the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) , which is a measure of average change in the prices of products that make up a basket of goods and services representative of household consumption in the country, registered an increase of 0.17% compared to the previous two weeks.

The  core price index  – which does not take into account the most volatile goods and services, such as food and energy –  increased  0.31% fortnightly , with a rise in service prices of 0.47% and goods of 0.13%.

Meanwhile, the  non-core price index  —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations, such as weather conditions—fell  0.30% on a bi-weekly basis . Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices fell 1.54%, while energy and regulated tariff prices rose 0.21%.

In the first half of December 2025, the products with the largest price increases were air transport with 38.25%, green tomatoes with 10.69%, package tourist services with 9.02%, sugar with 3.36% and electricity with 0.56 percent.

The products with the greatest decrease in their cost during the cycle were zucchini with 10.62%, serrano pepper with 7.80%, tomato with 4.84%, egg with 2.50% and chicken with 0.95 percent.

Meanwhile, the entities that registered the largest increases in the INPC during the period were Yucatán, Baja California Sur and Durango; on the contrary, those that presented a variation below the national average were Querétaro, Puebla and Guerrero.

The INPC figure for the first half of December is within the target of the  Bank of Mexico (Banxico) , which is 3% with a variability interval of +/- 1 percent.

Although analysts predict that year-on-year growth in the CPI will end the year below 4%, in a context of slow economic dynamism, the inflationary outlook is still complex.

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After two fortnights with declining readings, inflation in Mexico stood at 3.61% in the first half of November 2025 , mainly due to the increase in the cost of some products such as tomatoes and electricity, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , published this Monday.

During the reference period, the  National Consumer Price Index (INPC) , which is a measure of average change in the prices of products that make up a basket of goods and services representative of household consumption in the country, registered an increase of 0.47% compared to the previous two weeks.

According to Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (BX+) , the bi-weekly increase was primarily due to rising energy prices. “In particular, the increase in electricity rates due to the end of the summer rate program in 11 cities across the country stood out, as well as the increase in public transportation fares in Mexico City.”

According to Inegi, the  core price index  – which does not take into account the most volatile goods and services –  increased  0.04% biweekly , with a rise in the prices of services of 0.25%, while those of goods decreased 0.19 percent.

The  non-core price index  —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations, such as weather conditions—  rose 1.93% on a bi-weekly basis . Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices increased 1.34%, while energy and regulated tariffs rose 2.92%.

The behavior of the INPC in the first half of November 2025 caused an increase in the price of products such as electricity  with 20.70%,  air transport  with 4.60%,  public transport  with 4.32% and tomatoes with 3.98 percent.

Conversely, the products with the greatest decrease in their cost during the cycle were  avocados with 4.83%, potatoes and other tubers with 2.61%, televisions with a drop of 2.37% and outerwear with a decrease of 1.63 percent.

By state, Sinaloa, Sonora, Baja California Sur, Baja California and Tamaulipas registered the largest increases in the CPI during that period, while Quintana Roo, Aguascalientes, Durango, Chiapas and Nuevo León had variations below the national average.

As the year draws to a close, the Mexican economy is projected to experience a slight slowdown due to global trade shifts. Furthermore, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figure for the first half of November is above the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) target of 3%, with a tolerance range of +/- 1%.

According to BX+, the year-on-year change was pressured by the partial reversal in the non-core index (energy and fresh food), while the core index remained around its highest levels since April 2024, marking six months above 4 percent.

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Under a tariff environment and a global economic reconfiguration, the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) has improved its growth forecast for the Mexican economy, increasing it from 0.1% to 0.4% for 2025.

After making no changes for three consecutive months, the agency indicated that inflation will remain at 4% at the end of the year , unchanged from its previous estimates.

It’s worth remembering that inflation has been declining for two consecutive months. Last July alone, the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI)  stood at  3.51% annually, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .

IMEF projections predict that the exchange rate will close the year at 19.70 pesos per dollar, lower than the estimate last July of 20.10 pesos per dollar.

Meanwhile, by 2026, the exchange rate would drop from 20.75 to 20.40 pesos per dollar, the agency’s analysis stated.

Another variable with a positive outlook was the expectation of the traditional public balance as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this year, considering a slight decrease of 3.9% in August; for next year, it stood at 3.5%.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) monetary policy rate estimate  anticipates it will be 7.25 percent in 2025, while the following year it will be 6.75 percent.

The Mexican economy’s growth estimates from the Mexican Ministry of Economy and Finance (IMEF) are in line with other projections, such as those of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) , which predicted a 0.2% increase in national GDP.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) update , the IMF indicated that Mexican GDP would also show positive signs for 2026, with a projected growth of  1.4% , despite the uncertainty arising from tariffs, driven by the United States.

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The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) has released the results of the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) for the first half of May 2024, revealing a significant increase.

The annual general inflation stood at 4.78%, driven mainly by the increase in prices of agricultural and energy products.

Although the INPC decreased by 0.21% compared to the previous half due to the implementation of warm-season electricity tariffs in 11 cities in the country, this decline is lower than that recorded in the same half of the previous year, which was -0.32%.

The core price index, which excludes the most volatile components such as food and energy, showed an increase of 0.15% biweekly and 4.31% annually.

Within this index, the prices of goods increased by 0.11%, while services increased by 0.20%.

On the other hand, the non-core price index, which includes volatile components, recorded a biweekly decrease of 1.31% but an annual increase of 6.27%. In this category, agricultural product prices rose by 0.43%, and prices of energy products and government-authorized tariffs decreased by 2.86%.

In that regard, Grupo Financiero BX+ provided its analysis on consumer inflation in the first fortnight of May 2024, indicating a 4.78% annual growth, slightly below its projection of 4.81% and above the consensus of 4.75 percent.

In the analysis, they highlighted that year-on-year inflation accelerated, reaching its highest level since the second fortnight of January. They explain that this increase was driven by rises in agricultural and energy prices, although the underlying index grew at its slowest pace in three years. The variation in goods continued to decelerate, while services did not show a clear inflection point.

Bx+ also emphasized the implications of this data for future monetary policies, suggesting that an adjustment in the target rate of the Bank of Mexico could occur in June, provided that upcoming inflation readings show less pressure and some risks on the economic outlook dissipate.

In the study, they explain that the usual fortnightly decrease in May was mainly attributed to warm-season electricity tariffs, although the decline was smaller compared to the same period last year, due to increases in agricultural products and gasoline.

Regarding the year-on-year variation, BX+ comments that it increased for the third consecutive fortnight, marking its highest variation since January, driven by the dynamism of the non-core components, particularly agricultural and energy products.

They also explain that the core index grew at its slowest pace since May 2021, with a continued slowdown in goods, due to the dilution of previous shocks such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, as well as currency appreciation. Services, on the other hand, showed a marginal acceleration, especially in housing, although the rest of the services experienced minimal declines.

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