In the first half of October 2026, the annual general inflation rate in Mexico stood at 3.62% , after the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) increased 0.41% compared to the previous two weeks, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) announced .

The result represented an improvement compared to the 3.42% recorded in the first half of September, although it remained slightly below the 3.63% observed in the same period of 2025.

“The year-on-year variation accelerated for the third consecutive time, due to pressures in agricultural and energy products, accompanied by a rebound in the core index, after it slowed down between August and September,” explained the Financial Group Ve por Más (BX+) .

According to INEGI, the core inflation index —which excludes highly volatile goods and services— rose 0.25% on a biweekly basis . Within this index, merchandise prices increased 0.17% and services prices rose 0.31%.

“The increase in the underlying asset was the largest for a first half of October since 2022, highlighting the rise in air transport prices, partly reflecting a seasonal pattern and, in addition, possible pressures from fuel costs,” BX+ stated in an analysis.

Meanwhile, the non-core price index —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations— rose 0.98% biweekly . Prices for agricultural products fell 0.11%, while energy prices and government-regulated tariffs increased 1.85%.

This latest increase was driven by the end of the summer electricity subsidy in 18 cities across the country, a seasonal adjustment that put pressure on the overall indicator.

Electricity and air transport on the rise

Among the products with the greatest price increases in the first half of October were electricity with an increase of 18.51%, air transport with 14.77%, green tomatoes with 22.07%, zucchini with 16.27%, and LP domestic gas with a bi-weekly increase of 1.38%.

In contrast, the price of lemons fell by 10.43%, avocados by 4.79%, oranges by 4.58%, bananas by 4.15%, tomatoes by 3.04%, and potatoes and other tubers by 2.53% on a bi-weekly basis.

The behavior shows that the bi-weekly rebound was mainly concentrated in energy and some services, while the underlying component maintained moderate increases.

In that regard, the Ve por Más Financial Group considered that the inflationary outlook is still challenging and that the variable could accelerate “somewhat more towards the end of the year”.

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Despite a slower pace in the Mexican economy, the country’s commercial sector showed positive results in both wholesale and retail trade, which registered increases in their income in August 2026, according to figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

In the eighth month of the year,  revenue from the supply of goods and services in the wholesale trade sector increased by 0.3% month-on-month. Employment grew by 0.3%, while average real wages fell by 1% month-on-month, according to the results of the Monthly Survey of Commercial Enterprises (EMEC).

During the period, the  retail sector reported strong revenue growth of 1.2%, while employment increased by 0.2%. Conversely, average real wages fell by 0.8% month-on-month.

In their annual measurement, wholesale businesses saw a 6.3% increase in revenue, as well as a 0.2% decrease in the workforce and a 1% increase in average real wages.

Meanwhile, retail businesses reported a 3.2% increase in their income from the supply of goods and services; employment grew by 0.9% and average real wages increased by 5.2% year-on-year.

In the wholesale trade, the figures from Inegi show that the income of companies dedicated to agricultural and forestry raw materials, inputs for industry and waste materials grew 9.1% annually during August.

Also noteworthy were companies specializing in machinery, equipment, and furniture for agricultural, industrial, service, and commercial activities , whose revenues increased by 7.5%, as well as those dedicated to trucks, parts, and new spare parts for automobiles, vans, and trucks , with an annual increase of 7.1%.

In contrast, wholesale trade intermediation revenues fell 21.7% year-on-year.

In the retail sector, companies that sell exclusively via the internet, printed catalogs, television, and similar media recorded an annual growth of 17.6% in their revenue.

Establishments dedicated to health care items reported a 9.3% annual increase in their income, while those in hardware, paint and glass stores advanced 8.3% annually.

Meanwhile, revenues from self-service and department stores grew 1% annually, and those from grocery, food, beverage, ice and tobacco establishments increased 0.9% year-on-year.

The performance of commercial enterprises is relevant to supply chains, because their operations connect producers, manufacturers, and importers with distribution channels and end consumers .

The growth in wholesale revenue may be associated with increased marketing activity of goods and supplies, while the expansion of retail establishments allows us to observe demand patterns in consumer sales channels. These trends can impact transportation, warehousing, inventory replenishment, and distribution needs .

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El cargo Wholesale and retail trade revenues rebound in August apareció primero en T21.

In September 2026, the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE), prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , would have anticipated a monthly increase of just 0.1% and an annual increase of 3.7% for the Mexican economy .

These estimates show a growth outlook in their year-on-year comparison, although with a less dynamic monthly pace.

By economic activity groups, the tertiary sector —which includes trade, transport and storage, among other services— would register an annual increase of 4% , while the secondary sector , related to manufacturing, construction, mining and energy generation, would advance 3.6% compared to September 2025.

Meanwhile, the IOAE estimated an annual growth of 3.7% in the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) at an annual rate.

In their monthly comparison, both the IGAE and secondary and tertiary activities would show an advance of 0.1%, which points to a limited expansion rate at the close of the third quarter.

Logistics sector, among the indicators to follow

For supply chains, the performance of tertiary activities is relevant because they include services related to trade, transport and storage, whose demand is related to the movement of goods and the behavior of productive activity.

The estimated annual growth of 4% for this group points to a favorable environment in comparative terms. However, the projected monthly growth suggests that the pace of expansion could remain moderate .

Meanwhile, the estimated annual increase for secondary activities offers a signal about the behavior of industry and the production of goods, activities that generate transportation requirements for raw materials, components and finished products.

The IOAE provides a timely estimate of the behavior of the IGAE and its main activity groups up to five weeks before the publication of official figures. It does this by using econometric models that leverage the statistical relationship between economic activity and other variables available further in advance.

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El cargo Mexican economy expected to grow moderately in September apareció primero en T21.

Industrial activity in 16 federal entities of Mexico registered monthly advances during June 2026, in an environment marked by regional differences in the performance of productive activities, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

According to the Monthly Indicator of Industrial Activity by State (IMAIEF), Tamaulipas registered the highest monthly growth rate at 13.7% , followed by Oaxaca at 5.5% and Quintana Roo at 4.1%. Guanajuato (2.5%) and Yucatán (1.8%) also stood out compared to May.

In contrast, Puebla experienced the largest monthly decline with a decrease of 6.2%, followed by Tlaxcala with 4.5% and Tabasco with a drop of 3.3%. Aguascalientes and Chihuahua saw decreases of 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively.

In its annual measurement , the states where industrial activity showed the greatest progress were Tamaulipas with a growth of 15.7 percent. It was followed by Hidalgo with 15.4% and Colima with 13.4% compared to June 2025.

Veracruz, Yucatán, and Oaxaca also reported annual increases of 7.8%, 7.5%, and 7.2%, respectively. Conversely, Morelos saw a 22% drop, Baja California Sur a 13.7% decrease, and Puebla experienced a 13% decline in industrial activity.

Activity by sector

In the sixth month of 2026,  manufacturing industries showed progress, mainly in Durango, Michoacán, Sonora and Zacatecas at an annual rate.

In  construction , the largest increases were in Hidalgo, State of Mexico, Colima, Veracruz, Guanajuato and Querétaro.

The  mining sector  registered increases in Tamaulipas, State of Mexico, Veracruz, Yucatan, Chiapas and Hidalgo.

In the  generation, transmission, distribution and marketing of electricity, water supply and natural gas by pipeline to the end consumer,  the increases in Veracruz, Yucatán, Oaxaca and Querétaro stood out at an annual rate.

Construction and mining drive some states

The sectoral breakdown reveals that the results do not follow a single production pattern. Using original figures and comparing them year-over-year, national industrial activity increased by 1.6% in June 2026 , with mining growing by 6.6% and construction by 4.7%. In contrast, manufacturing industries grew by only 0.1%, while electricity generation and distribution, water supply, and gas increased by 0.8% year-over-year.

June’s data suggests that the country’s industrial performance continues to be conditioned by the productive characteristics of each state. While some states found support in construction or mining, others faced manufacturing setbacks that impacted their overall results.

For transportation and logistics, the industrial activity of each region influences the demand for raw materials, supplies, equipment, and finished products. Growth in construction or mining can increase the need to move materials and goods, while a manufacturing slowdown can moderate the flows associated with industrial plants and their supply chains .

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The rise in the price of some agricultural products such as tomatoes and onions influenced the increase in the general annual inflation, which stood at 3.45% in September 2026 , which implied a monthly increase of 0.42% in the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), reported the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

“The year-on-year change accelerated for the second consecutive reading, due to the reversal in the non-core index,”  Grupo Financiero Ve por Más (BX+) said  in an analysis.

According to Inegi, the  core price index —which does not take into account the most volatile goods and services— increased 0.20% on a monthly basis , with a rise in the prices of goods of 0.14% and an increase of 0.26% in those of services.

“The underlying rate moderated slightly, although its variations are still relatively high despite a context of fragile economic dynamism,” BX+ explained.

Meanwhile, the non-core price index —which includes goods and services whose prices are subject to fluctuations— rose 1.20 percent . Within this index, fruit and vegetable prices increased by 4.40 percent, and energy and regulated tariffs rose 0.41 percent month-on-month, reflecting upward pressure on various frequently consumed products and services in Mexico.

“Non-core inflation would extend its upswing, as the prices of various raw materials (not just energy) and logistics costs continue to show significant volatility in response to geopolitical conflicts; in addition, the prices of agricultural products would be affected by the ‘El Niño’ phenomenon,” explained Ve por Más.

The increase in inflation last September is mainly explained by a rebound in the price of agricultural products such as tomatoes with a rise of 30.25%, onions with 23%, air transport with 6.59%, other fruits with 6.13%, primary education with 6%, LP domestic gas with 3.14% and chicken with a monthly increase of 1.78%.

In contrast, the products with the greatest decrease in their cost during the cycle were professional services with a drop of 16.44%, potatoes and other tubers with 13.92%, avocados with 8.11%, oranges with 5.65% and tequila with a decrease in its cost of 2.62% at a monthly rate.

Among the states with the largest monthly increases in the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) were Tlaxcala, Colima, and Puebla . Meanwhile, Baja California Sur, Quintana Roo, and Coahuila were among the states with variations below the national average.

The overall result is still within the variability range of the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) inflation target for 2026, which is 3% +/- one percentage point .

According to Ve por Más’s analysis, the inflationary outlook is still challenging , so it predicted an acceleration “somewhat more between now and the end of 2026, although it would manage to stay below 4%.”

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Prices for transportation, postal and storage activities in Mexico registered a monthly increase of 0.81% and an annual increase of 5.86% , according to the National Producer Price Index (INPP), prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

The result occurs in a context where the INPP increased 1.37% monthly and 4.05% annually in the ninth month of the year, while the prices of tertiary activities advanced 0.76% monthly and 4.52% annually.

According to the INPP, air cargo transport prices increased 1.02% monthly during September, although they showed an annual decrease of 1.50 percent.

This trend is occurring while air cargo continues to grow in Mexico. During the first half of 2026, 616,193.8 tons were transported, 4.7% more than in the same period of 2025, according to data from the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC) .

Air transport continues to be a segment geared towards higher value and time-sensitive goods, so a monthly increase in rates can be passed on more quickly to operations where speed has an important weight in the logistics decision.

Meanwhile, the airport usage fee decreased by 0.80% monthly during the reference period, although it showed an annual growth of 1.78%. It’s worth noting that Mexico City International Airport (AICM) increased its Airport Usage Fee (TUA), which took effect on April 1st and will remain in place until December 31st, 2026.

Air cargo handling services saw a monthly increase of 0.16% and an annual increase of 5.32%. This indicator reflects a different pressure than that of freight rates: while freight costs can respond to capacity, routes, and demand, handling activities are linked to the infrastructure and services necessary to move cargo within terminals .

In rail freight transport , the price did not register a monthly variation in September, but increased 7.16% at an annual rate.

This behavior comes as the railroad faces a debate over infrastructure costs. The federal government, through the 2027 Economic Package, proposed a 140% increase in tolls for using the railways, a measure that has generated concern among user companies due to its potential impact on products such as grains, raw materials, fuels, steel, and finished goods.

Maritime freight transport saw a 1.72% increase month-on-month and a 3.31% increase year-on-year in September. The combination of increased container traffic and fluctuations in maritime transport costs indicates that demand for port and logistics capacity continues to grow, although with varying pressures across the different services within the supply chain.

Port usage fees showed no monthly change last September; however, they grew 7.59% year-on-year.

The importance of this indicator goes beyond the tariff itself. In Mexico’s main ports, delays represent an operating cost for carriers, as they simultaneously immobilize tractor-trailers, drivers, and fuel. An analysis by T21 Business Intelligence estimated that delays in Manzanillo, Lázaro Cárdenas, Veracruz, and Altamira generate an associated cost of 1,166.3 million pesos per month for the trucking industry, considering the operational days of each port.

Regarding general freight trucking , this service saw a monthly price increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year increase of 3.56%. This result remains linked to the costs faced by trucking companies, particularly for fuel, maintenance, tires, and equipment availability.

The toll for trucks and buses had no monthly variation during September 2026, but its annual increase was 7.59 percent.

Customs brokerage firms and other freight forwarding services saw a 0.27% decrease in their monthly costs and a 0.08% annual increase. This data comes at a time of regulatory changes in customs matters. The Chamber of Deputies recently approved modifications to customs legislation, so these agencies are simultaneously facing pressure to update their regulations and technology.

The parcel and courier service saw a price increase of 0.18% month-on-month and 4.93% year-on-year. This trend is occurring in a segment linked to the growth of e-commerce and distribution chains that require more frequent deliveries.

Meanwhile, cargo storage costs increased by 0.32% monthly and 2.80% annually. This component is gaining importance in an environment where companies are reorganizing inventories and distribution networks . Warehousing is no longer just a space to store goods; it has become a component of demand response strategy, particularly with the growth of e-commerce and nearshoring (relocation of production lines).

September data shows that logistics inflation is not evenly distributed . While the sector as a whole accelerated to 5.86% annually, the largest increases are concentrated in infrastructure and some modes of transport and services, such as rail, tolls, and port usage fees, which were above 7% annually.

The takeaway for logistics companies is that cost pressures do not come from a single input, but are formed by elements such as infrastructure, energy, transportation, goods handling, and specialized services.

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El cargo Inflation in the Mexican logistics sector rose in September apareció primero en T21.

In September 2026, vehicle production and exports registered a decline , placing the Mexican automotive industry in negative territory, according to the Administrative Registry of the Automotive Industry of Light Vehicles (RAIAVL), published by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

During the ninth month of the year, the automakers installed in Mexico manufactured 301,803 light vehicles , which represented a decrease of 15.13% compared to the 355,589 units manufactured in September 2025.

Meanwhile, the accumulated production between January and September stood at 2,946,943 units , a decrease of 2.42% compared to the 3,020,006 cars registered in the same period last year.

In the cycle, light trucks accounted for 79% of total production , with 2,329,189 units. The remaining 21% was made up of cars, with 617,754 units.

In the first nine months of 2026, the brands that stood out in their production at Mexican plants were Stellantis , with an 18.9% increase, totaling 345,522 units compared to 290,685 vehicles produced in the same period last year.  Volkswagen  also showed strong manufacturing results with a 14.6% increase, reaching 286,668 units compared to 250,124 in the same period of 2025.

In contrast, Nissan’s production fell 25.2% during January-September of this year. Mazda’s production decreased by 15.7%, and Ford Motor’s fell by 5.7% year-on-year.

Exports slow down

Exports totaled 277,369 vehicles in September 2026 , a decrease of 11.85% compared to the 314,656 units sent abroad during the same month of 2025.

In January-September, 2,528,623 light vehicles were placed in international markets , a drop of 1.50% compared to the 2,567,172 units of the same period last year.

In total, the United States remained the primary destination for vehicles manufactured in Mexico, accounting for 76.4% of exports , with 1,931,750 units. Canada followed with 314,185 vehicles, representing 12.4%. Germany received 64,963 units, equivalent to 2.6% of the total.

By brand, Stellantis stood out in total exports with 316,533 vehicles shipped abroad, representing a 30.2% year-over-year increase. Volkswagen followed with 233,165 vehicles, 16.8% more than in 2015. KIA saw a 10.3% year-over-year increase with 177,727 vehicles. Conversely, Nissan’s exports fell by 29.5% in the first nine months of 2016; Ford Motor experienced a 10.8% drop, and Toyota registered a 4.6% year-over-year decrease.

With these results, the Mexican automotive sector closed September with a contraction.

The behavior of the coming months will be crucial in determining whether the decline represents a temporary adjustment in manufacturing and exports or a sign of a more prolonged slowdown for the Mexican automotive industry, which represents almost 4% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and about 20.5% of the manufacturing GDP, according to the Mexican Automotive Industry Association (AMIA) .

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Mexican households have once again moderated their perception of the economy. In September 2026, the Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI), compiled from the results of the National Consumer Confidence Survey (ENCO), fell 1.2 points compared to the previous August, reaching 45.1 points , while year-on-year it decreased by 1 point.

According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi)  and the  Bank of Mexico (Banxico) , the decline was not concentrated in a single variable. All five components of the indicator registered monthly decreases, while three registered declines on an annual basis.

During September, the component that measures the current economic situation of household members compared to what it was 12 months ago was the one that fell the most, with a decline of 1.9 monthly points.

The expected economic situation of household members in 12 months compared to the current situation decreased by 1.5 units , while the economic situation of the country today compared to that of 12 months ago decreased by 1.3 monthly points.

The expected economic situation of the country in 12 months compared to the current one registered a drop of 0.9 units, and the possibilities at the present time of the members of the household, compared to those of a year ago to make purchases of furniture, television, washing machine, among others, decreased by 0.5 points monthly.

On an annual basis, the component that declined the most was the expected economic situation of the country within 12 months compared to the current situation, with a drop of 2.7 points.

Conversely, the one that saw the greatest increase was the current economic situation of household members compared to what it was 12 months ago, which rose by 0.2 units annually.

According to the September results, the Mexican consumer is still maintaining spending, but is looking ahead with greater caution.

The decline in all five components of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) on a monthly basis suggests that the challenge for the final stretch of the year will not only be to maintain consumption, but to regain enough confidence for households to turn their income and expectations into purchasing decisions.

The National Consumer Confidence Survey provides statistical information on how satisfied citizens are with their economic situation, that of their family and that of the country, as well as how changes in social welfare, development and other variables are perceived over time.

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El cargo Mexican consumer confidence “sinks” in September apareció primero en T21.

Mexican households have once again moderated their perception of the economy. In September 2026, the Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI), compiled from the results of the National Consumer Confidence Survey (ENCO), fell 1.2 points compared to the previous August, reaching 45.1 points , while year-on-year it decreased by 1 point.

According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi)  and the  Bank of Mexico (Banxico) , the decline was not concentrated in a single variable. All five components of the indicator registered monthly decreases, while three registered declines on an annual basis.

During September, the component that measures the current economic situation of household members compared to what it was 12 months ago was the one that fell the most, with a decline of 1.9 monthly points.

The expected economic situation of household members in 12 months compared to the current situation decreased by 1.5 units , while the economic situation of the country today compared to that of 12 months ago decreased by 1.3 monthly points.

The expected economic situation of the country in 12 months compared to the current one registered a drop of 0.9 units, and the possibilities at the present time of the members of the household, compared to those of a year ago to make purchases of furniture, television, washing machine, among others, decreased by 0.5 points monthly.

On an annual basis, the component that declined the most was the expected economic situation of the country within 12 months compared to the current situation, with a drop of 2.7 points.

Conversely, the one that saw the greatest increase was the current economic situation of household members compared to what it was 12 months ago, which rose by 0.2 units annually.

According to the September results, the Mexican consumer is still maintaining spending, but is looking ahead with greater caution.

The decline in all five components of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) on a monthly basis suggests that the challenge for the final stretch of the year will not only be to maintain consumption, but to regain enough confidence for households to turn their income and expectations into purchasing decisions.

The National Consumer Confidence Survey provides statistical information on how satisfied citizens are with their economic situation, that of their family and that of the country, as well as how changes in social welfare, development and other variables are perceived over time.

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El cargo Mexican consumer confidence “sinks” in September apareció primero en T21.

Private consumption in Mexico stopped growing on a monthly basis in July 2026, a sign of less dynamism in one of the components that sustain economic activity and that, at the same time, determines a large part of the flow of goods to households.

The Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP), which tracks household spending on goods and services, both domestic and imported, showed no change in July 2026, while year-on-year it registered a 1.1 percent increase . The index stood at 113.2 points, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

The result represents a pause after consumption had shown progress for some months of the year.

The composition of the July data also shows where spending shifted. While consumption of domestically produced goods and services decreased by 0.1% month-on-month , spending on imported goods increased by 1.4%.

In annual terms, there was an increase of 1% in domestic goods and services and 1.6% in imported goods and services.

For the logistics sector, the annual growth in consumption continues to generate demand for transport, storage and distribution , with a composition that favors imported goods.

The reading is relevant because private consumption represents the most significant component of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the demand side.

Factors that accompany this behavior include variables such as employment, household income, consumer confidence, and remittances.

The following data will be relevant to confirm whether the stagnation in July at a monthly rate represents a temporary pause or the beginning of a stage of less dynamism.

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