Two days before the imposition of 25% tariffs on products imported from Mexico to the United States , scheduled for February 1 , the discrepancies between authorities of both countries continue. On the one hand, the Americans affirm that the tariff measure will be implemented and, on the other, the Mexicans assure that they have a plan to confront them, so they rule out surprises or “untimely reactions.”

The decision by US President Donald Trump to impose tariffs has long-standing implications dating back to 2017 , when he threatened the then Mexican president, Enrique Peña Nieto , with such action on products from his southern neighbor.

At that time, Trump was also interested in controlling “overwhelming and illegal” immigration to the northern neighbor by imposing tariffs and, in addition, building a wall on the northern border paid for with Mexican funds.

In 2018, the threat was fulfilled. The United States imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports of 25% and 10% from Mexico, Canada, and the European Union, to which Mexico responded in kind, but on various American products, such as pork, potatoes, blueberries, whiskey, and construction materials, with rates ranging from 15% to 25% .

In the end, Mexico and its northern neighbor reached an agreement to eliminate tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

In 2019, when Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) was already in power, Trump’s protectionist trade policy intensified and, with his haughty character, he again threatened tariffs that would gradually increase from an initial rate of 5 percent .

According to the White House statement issued at the time, the tariffs would go from 5% to “10% on July 1, 15% on August 1, 20% on September 1, and 25% on October 1.” The reason for the tariffs that year was the same as today: to stop illegal immigration, with the added benefit of curbing the trafficking of fentanyl , which in recent years has caused a health crisis in the United States.

“Mexico’s passive cooperation in enabling this massive incursion constitutes an emergency and an extraordinary threat to the national security and economy of the United States,” the 2019 statement said. The statement also noted that “Mexico has very strong immigration laws and could easily stop the illegal flow of migrants, including by returning them to their countries of origin.”

In response, AMLO wrote a letter in which he ruled out confrontation and appealed to the good relationship between the two countries throughout history. He also explained that his immigration policy was based on human rights.

“You know that we are fulfilling our responsibility to avoid, as far as possible and without violating human rights, passage through our country,” stated the letter from López Obrador, who invited Trump to “deepen the dialogue.”

Recently, since his campaign for a second term as President of the United States, Donald Trump has constantly used the imposition of tariffs.

For Alfredo Careaga , Business Development Director at  THB Mexico , one of the key issues in the trade relationship between the two countries is the possible imposition of tariffs on Mexican products , which could extend to other economies around the world and even affect American consumers.

“Imposing tariffs not only affects us, but also the American consumer. It is a bit, perhaps, contradictory in the sense that one of Trump’s policies is that he wants to control inflation,” he said.

The specialist indicated that Trump would be shooting himself in the foot with the protectionist trade policies he seeks to implement , and recalled that the business issue and the focus on Mexico as a supply center for the United States was the trade fight or war that Donald Trump had with China in his first term as president of our northern neighbor.

“On the one hand, he fought with China, but now it seems that he is fighting with Mexico. In the end, it seems to me that the United States cannot live in that bubble and does need something, this commercial ally for supply issues, for cheap manufacturing, so that is why Trump’s position is a little contradictory,” Careaga stressed.

In light of the imposition of tariffs scheduled for February 1, President Claudia Sheinbaum ruled out Trump carrying out this measure, despite the fact that just last January 28, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said that the application of 25% tariffs against products imported from Mexico and Canada will remain in place for that date .

In this regard, Sheinbaum assured that there is a plan in case such a situation occurs. “We do not believe that it will happen, to be honest, and if it does happen, we also have our plan. We will inform you,” said the president in her morning press conference on January 29, adding that “there are conversations, there is dialogue. We do not believe that this definition of tariffs will come, but we are also already prepared.”

For his part, Marcelo Ebrard , head of the Ministry of Economy , supported Sheinbaum’s statements within the framework of the 85th Annual General Assembly of the American Society .

“I cannot reveal to you what is planned, but you can be sure that we have studied it very carefully. We have prepared a lot and we have thought about it a lot; that is, there will be no surprises nor any untimely reactions,” he stressed.

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In the most recent study on operator shortages by the International Road Transport Union (IRU), Mexico is the region where companies face the most significant challenges in recruiting operators. Nearly 74% of them experience severe or very severe situations, compared to 62% in Europe and 65% in Russia.

In Europe, measures are being implemented to comprehensively address the operator shortage issue. This includes the European standard for safe rest areas, aimed at providing favorable conditions for truck operators.

Another approach involves collaboration with shippers to create favorable conditions for operators at their facilities or during loading and unloading activities.

“The issue of infrastructure, in general, is crucial for addressing operator shortages. Globally, there are measures that could be emulated in Mexico as a way to tackle the challenges we face,” commented Martin Rojas, IRU’s Principal Advisor for the Americas.

Rojas also noted that meetings were held with Mexico’s Directorate General of Federal Road Transport (DGAF) to discuss rest areas and how they are categorized based on the services provided to operators. This could be a factor in addressing the generation and retention of this workforce.

“The main problem faced in operator shortages is with long-haul operators, so infrastructure needs to be addressed,” he added.

Additionally, at its upcoming June assembly, the IRU will address the possibility of incorporating non-European Union operators, such as migrants, into the workforce of those countries. This is seen as a way to address the global operator shortage issue.

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