The Mexican economy could grow by 1.6% this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated , which would mean a gradual recovery amid a context marked by adjustments in public finances, high interest rates, an adverse international trade environment and geopolitical conflicts such as the one in the Middle East.

According to the World Economic Outlook report , the international organization indicated that Mexico will experience a slight economic recovery in 2026 after less dynamism in 2025.

By 2027, it projected a better environment for the Mexican economy, which could grow by 2.2% , but remaining cautious about an uncertain economic outlook, stemming from trade barriers and the conflict in the Middle East “which significantly counteracts favorable factors, due to its impact on commodity markets, inflation expectations and financial conditions.”

The IMF’s projections remain below the estimates of  Mexico’s Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) , which forecasts growth of between 1.8% and 2.8% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP); while for 2027 it estimates that it will be between 1.9% and 2.9%, supported by consumption, employment and public and private investment in strategic sectors.

Under this scenario, the federal agency has indicated that the Mexican economy will resume a more dynamic trajectory in 2026 and 2027.

However, some indicators, which serve as a barometer for the Mexican economy, show no recovery. In this regard, although the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP), prepared by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , anticipated a 0.2% monthly increase in consumption for February 2026 and a 2.1% annual increase, Mexican household spending continues to be cautious.

And the global economy?

The IMF report estimated 2.3% growth for the US economy in 2026 and 2.1% for next year. For Canada , it forecasts 1.5% growth this year and 1.9% in 2027. China is projected to grow by 4.4% in 2026 and 4% in 2027.

The international organization  stressed that the international outlook remains subject to  risks and uncertainty , due to tensions in the Middle East and their potential effects on energy and financial markets, and therefore projected that the global economy will grow 3.1% this year and 3.2% in 2027 , below the average observed in the last two years (in 2025 alone it was 3.4%).

The forecast for 2026 has been revised downwards by 0.2 percentage points, and the forecast for 2027 shows no changes compared to the update of January 2026.

“The downward revision to 2026 is mainly due to disruptions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, offset in part by the carryover effect of recent positive data and reduced tariff rates,” the report stated.

The IMF considered that geopolitical tensions could worsen further , potentially leading to an outbreak of internal political tensions.

“The factors of political tension can be complicated by changes in trade policies and other international policies. Regardless of how the geopolitical situation evolves, trade disputes could reignite,” he stressed.

The IMF report comes against a backdrop of rising commodity prices and more restrictive financial conditions that are testing global trade and economic resilience.

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El cargo Amid global tensions, the IMF forecasts slight growth for the Mexican economy in 2026. apareció primero en T21.

The uncertainty of 2025, driven by a slowing economy and US tariffs , could represent an opportunity for Mexico in 2026, with events such as the World Cup and the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) impacting the country’s economic performance.

The discussion “Opportunities for the Mexican Economy and Foreign Trade in 2026 ,” organized by Mundi , included Gabriela Gutiérrez Mora, national president of the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) ; Guillermo Bernal, director of Public Affairs at the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico (AmCham Mexico) ; Diego López Tamayo, senior economist at BBVA Research ; and Sonny Tabares, VP of Risk and Credit at Mundi.

In the dialogue, the specialists agreed that the review of the USMCA, which will take place next July, will be a turning point for the Mexican economy .

In that sense, Guillermo Bernal considered that free trade will no longer be as it is currently conceived, but local content offers the opportunity to keep Mexico attractive with good industrial policy management .

He clarified that the trilateral trade agreement is under review, not being renegotiated, “and will continue to be key to providing certainty within a co-production system where, just as we are the main seller to the United States, we are also its main buyer.”

The event highlighted that among the possible scenarios being considered are the renewal of the USMCA for an additional 16 years or, if no consensus is reached, annual reviews for a decade ; in addition, discussions on stricter rules of origin are anticipated, particularly in the automotive and manufacturing sectors , as well as greater pressure to limit Chinese inputs in regional value chains.

It is worth remembering that Mexico registered a positive performance in its trade balance, going from a deficit of 18 billion 541 million dollars (USD) in 2024 to a surplus of 771 million USD in 2025, reaching historical highs in total exports with 664 billion 837 million USD, and in total imports with 664 billion 066 million USD.

Moderate economic growth

The IMEF’s economic outlook warns of a scenario of insufficient growth, persistent inflation and weak investment , with a moderate forecast of 1.3% for 2026.

This figure is similar to that presented by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) in its survey on expectations (1.30%), as well as that predicted (1.2%) by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) , but below that projected (1.5%) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .

The IMEF survey respondents estimate that inflation will close the year at 3.95%; the same figure as the Survey on Expectations of Private Sector Economic Specialists by Banxico, while BBVA Research anticipated a general and core inflation of 3.8 percent.

“ Economic growth requires coordinated efforts between the public and private sectors to launch strategic projects and strengthen our industrial potential. Although exports remain dynamic, we are already seeing some nuances due to the impact of tariffs , particularly on auto parts. Energy will be a central focus in the USMCA discussions and in industrial policy,” emphasized Diego López.

World Cup, an economic showcase

Experts agreed that the impact of the 2026 FIFA  World Cup will extend beyond the immediate economic benefits and temporary employment in the service sector. The event is anticipated as a strategic catalyst that will strengthen Mexico’s international profile , solidifying its position as a priority destination for new investments.

“The 2026 FIFA World Cup puts us on the radar for foreign investment; the challenge is to turn that visibility into resilient, long-term growth,” Sonny Tabares emphasized.

Investment and employment, with challenges

According to the Ministry of Economy (SE) , at the close of the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), Mexico reached a historic record of 40,906 million USD of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), however, the challenge is that this flow depends, to a large extent, on the reinvestment of profits and not on new capital.

The above highlights a critical opportunity cost: as long as legal uncertainty and the lack of energy infrastructure persist , the country will continue to attract capital by inertia instead of attracting fresh investments that are currently moving towards other competitive markets.

Regarding jobs, BBVA Research identified that formal employment grew 1.3% in 2025, but fell to only 0.3% when excluding workers from digital platforms.

According to the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) , 2025 saw a record high of 23.9 million jobs; however, the creation of 278,697 jobs represented the second weakest performance in more than two decades.

The Mexican labor market remains far from solid dynamism, as the slowdown in investment and the lack of business confidence not only limit the figures, but also represent a direct social cost: the inability to generate high-quality jobs that will drive true prosperity for Mexican families in 2026.

In a 2026 where uncertainty persists, Mexico has competitive advantages that it must take advantage of to boost its economic growth, such as its strategic location and the skilled workforce it has.

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El cargo World Cup and USMCA review, turning points for the Mexican economy in 2026 apareció primero en T21.

Although the Mexican economy remains weak and the trade outlook shows no clear signs of improvement, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 1% by 2025.

This increase reflects a slight rebound in the international organization’s forecasts, which last July projected that the Mexican economy could grow  0.2%  this year, despite the uncertainty generated by tariffs around the world.

“Fiscal consolidation, a continuing contractionary monetary policy, and trade tensions with the United States have impacted consumption and investment, while exports have proven resilient,” noted an IMF mission that visited Mexico at the end of last August.

Meanwhile, the IMF forecast better results for 2026. For the following year , Mexico’s GDP could grow 1.5% ; however, factors such as the tariff policy promoted by the United States will continue to impact global trade, affecting the country’s economy.

“Growth is expected to accelerate somewhat in 2026, although the impact of tariffs and trade uncertainty will continue to linger. Headline inflation is moderating and is expected to converge toward the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) 3% target in the second half of 2026,” he indicated.

It is worth remembering that Mexico’s GDP grew 0.6% in the second quarter of 2025 , driven mainly by the manufacturing and services industries , according to data from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

The IMF also estimated consumption growth, one of the driving forces of the Mexican economy, at 0.5% for this year. Meanwhile, it forecast a better outlook for 2026, projecting a 1.8% growth.

In this regard, the organization recommended expanding and diversifying trade alliances , which “would further strengthen Mexico’s position in global supply chains ,” it stated.

In the face of fiscal constraints , he argued that the country must address infrastructure gaps, particularly in the energy, transportation , telecommunications, and water sectors .

To mitigate the negative economic effects that persist worldwide, Mexico needs to “maintain trade openness to sustain growth and avoid measures such as import tariffs.”

“Given fiscal constraints, private sector participation will be critical, which will require improving the investment climate ,” the mission stated in its report.

Among other aspects, he recommended strengthening the rule of law and deepening integration with global trading partners.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum welcomed the IMF’s economic growth forecast of 0.2% to 1% for this year, which she said is a consequence of the strategy defined through Plan Mexico .

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The Mexican economy could grow 0.2% this year, despite the uncertainty generated by tariffs around the world, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) update published Tuesday.

According to the analysis, this increase represents a 0.5% increase compared to its previous report in April, when it estimated that Mexico’s economy would contract 0.3%.

The report indicated that Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would also show positive signs for 2026, with a projected growth of 1.4 percent .

In the Latin American and Caribbean region , the international organization forecast economic growth of 2.2% for this year, 0.2 percentage points higher than anticipated in April.

By 2026, the International Monetary Fund expects the situation in the region to improve, and has therefore anticipated a 2.4 percent increase in GDP.

The forecast for advanced economies is for growth of 1.9% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026.

The United States is expected to be the best performer in this area, with a projected 1.9% increase for this year and 2% for 2026.

“In the United States, real GDP declined at an annualized rate of 0.5%, marking the first quarterly contraction in three years. Consumer spending increased by just 0.5%, but this comes after posting very rapid 4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2024,” the document detailed.

Furthermore, global growth rates are projected at 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, an upward revision from the estimates in last April’s edition of the report.

“Global growth is expected to slow as the apparent resilience stemming from trade distortions is waning. The forecasts of 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026 are below the 3.3% observed in 2024 and the pre-COVID-19 historical average of 3.7%, but are higher than the April baseline forecast,” the report noted.

The agency stated that this was due to the advance of imports before the tariff increases, as well as lower effective tariff rates , improved financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some important jurisdictions.

Meanwhile, in terms of global trade volume , the IMF estimated a 0.9 percentage point increase in 2025 and a 0.6 percentage point decrease in 2026.

“The short-term momentum from the frontloading of certain trade flows is expected to dissipate in the second half of 2025 due to heightened trade policy uncertainty and the prospect of increased trade restrictions, with consequences expected to materialize throughout 2026,” the report stated.

The IMF explained that the outlook continues to be affected by the potential increase in tariffs , increased uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions. “Restoring confidence, predictability, and sustainability remains a top policy priority,” it emphasized.

The organization warned that, despite a better balance sheet, “geopolitical tensions could disrupt global supply chains and increase commodity prices.”

It’s worth remembering that the United States has launched a global tariff war by levying taxes on various products imported into the United States, which affects Mexico, one of its main trading partners.

Mexico, like other countries, is waiting to reach an agreement with the United States on tariffs to avoid the 30% tariff that the United States announced to the Mexican government in a letter on July 12, and which would be implemented on August 1.

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El cargo IMF projects Mexican economic growth for this year apareció primero en T21.

External factors such as the tariff war and internal factors such as uncertainty over the reform of the judiciary could cause a contraction of Mexico’s economy during the second quarter of 2025, warned the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) .

According to an analysis by that organization, there is a likelihood that Mexican economic growth will fall into negative figures during that period.

Although there is a deferral in the application of tariffs to Mexico compared to other countries, the IMEF pointed out that Mexican products exported have a higher effective rate than those imposed on other nations such as Canada and Brazil.

According to the report, Mexico is also facing deteriorating expectations due to the closure of the U.S. border to Mexican livestock due to the spread of the screwworm, an issue on which “the federal government has not acted effectively.”

“This problem puts more than $1.3 billion in cattle exports to the neighboring country at risk,” he stressed.

Regarding this case, it is worth remembering that the United States government suspended the importation of Mexican cattle for 15 days, to which Julio Berdegué , head of the  Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (Sader) , said that Mexico has carried out all the actions agreed upon with its counterpart from its northern neighbor,  Brooke Rollins , to combat the screwworm plague in the country.

Regarding job creation, the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) estimated 200,000 new jobs by 2025. “However, the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) announced on May 5 that only 43,500 new jobs had been created in the last 12 months, indicating that this sector will experience significant decline in the immediate future,” the agency explained.

The IMEF’s forecasts are in line with those of the World Bank (WB) , which  lowered its economic growth expectations for Mexico from  1.5%  to  0%  for this year due to a complicated external environment driven by various factors such as the escalation of US tariffs on imported products.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also  estimated a 0.3% contraction  in Mexico’s GDP, which could lead to a recession in the country by 2025.

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El cargo IMEF forecasts Mexican economy will contract in Q2 2025 due to tariffs apareció primero en T21.

The uncertainty generated by the United States’ economic policy with the imposition of tariffs has affected business confidence when deciding to invest, according to the Global Indicator of Business Opinion Confidence (IGOEC) , which stood at 48.6 points last April , as revealed this Friday by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .

According to figures obtained from the  Monthly Business Opinion Survey (EMOE) , this weighting represented a drop of 0.6 points compared to March 2025 and 6.2 points compared to the previous year.

The agency detailed that, in April 2025, the manufacturing industry confidence indicator was 48.5 points , which was 1.2 points lower than last March, and represented the second consecutive month with declines.

The components that make up the aforementioned indicator fell, with the one related to whether it is the right time to invest standing out with a drop of 3.2 points .

Meanwhile, construction reported a positive result, achieving a monthly increase of 0.1 points in April; the component that showed the greatest growth was the one related to the company’s current economic situation, with an increase of 1.8 units .

In turn, the  trade sector  confidence indicator decreased 1.8 points compared to March 2025, reaching 47.4 points . The largest decline was related to the company’s future economic situation, with a decrease of 2.9 points .

The non-financial private services confidence indicator increased 0.2 points month-over-month to 49.7 points ; the right time to invest was the component with the largest increase, rising 1.9 points during the period.

According to CIAL Dun & Bradstreet , the Mexican economy is facing a complex situation, characterized by stagnant productive activity and a slowdown in employment.

The firm, which specializes in providing technological solutions and data,  considered that this stems from local factors such as the elimination of autonomous bodies and reforms to the Judiciary , as well as external factors such as the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs , which have negatively impacted Mexico’s economic performance.

Under this scenario, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its growth forecasts for Mexico, projecting a 0.3% contraction in 2025, in contrast to the 1.4% growth estimated last January.

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El cargo Low business confidence in Mexico in April; Trump’s tariffs are one of the reasons apareció primero en T21.