The uncertainty of 2025, driven by a slowing economy and US tariffs , could represent an opportunity for Mexico in 2026, with events such as the World Cup and the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) impacting the country’s economic performance.

The discussion “Opportunities for the Mexican Economy and Foreign Trade in 2026 ,” organized by Mundi , included Gabriela Gutiérrez Mora, national president of the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) ; Guillermo Bernal, director of Public Affairs at the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico (AmCham Mexico) ; Diego López Tamayo, senior economist at BBVA Research ; and Sonny Tabares, VP of Risk and Credit at Mundi.

In the dialogue, the specialists agreed that the review of the USMCA, which will take place next July, will be a turning point for the Mexican economy .

In that sense, Guillermo Bernal considered that free trade will no longer be as it is currently conceived, but local content offers the opportunity to keep Mexico attractive with good industrial policy management .

He clarified that the trilateral trade agreement is under review, not being renegotiated, “and will continue to be key to providing certainty within a co-production system where, just as we are the main seller to the United States, we are also its main buyer.”

The event highlighted that among the possible scenarios being considered are the renewal of the USMCA for an additional 16 years or, if no consensus is reached, annual reviews for a decade ; in addition, discussions on stricter rules of origin are anticipated, particularly in the automotive and manufacturing sectors , as well as greater pressure to limit Chinese inputs in regional value chains.

It is worth remembering that Mexico registered a positive performance in its trade balance, going from a deficit of 18 billion 541 million dollars (USD) in 2024 to a surplus of 771 million USD in 2025, reaching historical highs in total exports with 664 billion 837 million USD, and in total imports with 664 billion 066 million USD.

Moderate economic growth

The IMEF’s economic outlook warns of a scenario of insufficient growth, persistent inflation and weak investment , with a moderate forecast of 1.3% for 2026.

This figure is similar to that presented by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) in its survey on expectations (1.30%), as well as that predicted (1.2%) by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) , but below that projected (1.5%) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .

The IMEF survey respondents estimate that inflation will close the year at 3.95%; the same figure as the Survey on Expectations of Private Sector Economic Specialists by Banxico, while BBVA Research anticipated a general and core inflation of 3.8 percent.

“ Economic growth requires coordinated efforts between the public and private sectors to launch strategic projects and strengthen our industrial potential. Although exports remain dynamic, we are already seeing some nuances due to the impact of tariffs , particularly on auto parts. Energy will be a central focus in the USMCA discussions and in industrial policy,” emphasized Diego López.

World Cup, an economic showcase

Experts agreed that the impact of the 2026 FIFA  World Cup will extend beyond the immediate economic benefits and temporary employment in the service sector. The event is anticipated as a strategic catalyst that will strengthen Mexico’s international profile , solidifying its position as a priority destination for new investments.

“The 2026 FIFA World Cup puts us on the radar for foreign investment; the challenge is to turn that visibility into resilient, long-term growth,” Sonny Tabares emphasized.

Investment and employment, with challenges

According to the Ministry of Economy (SE) , at the close of the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), Mexico reached a historic record of 40,906 million USD of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), however, the challenge is that this flow depends, to a large extent, on the reinvestment of profits and not on new capital.

The above highlights a critical opportunity cost: as long as legal uncertainty and the lack of energy infrastructure persist , the country will continue to attract capital by inertia instead of attracting fresh investments that are currently moving towards other competitive markets.

Regarding jobs, BBVA Research identified that formal employment grew 1.3% in 2025, but fell to only 0.3% when excluding workers from digital platforms.

According to the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) , 2025 saw a record high of 23.9 million jobs; however, the creation of 278,697 jobs represented the second weakest performance in more than two decades.

The Mexican labor market remains far from solid dynamism, as the slowdown in investment and the lack of business confidence not only limit the figures, but also represent a direct social cost: the inability to generate high-quality jobs that will drive true prosperity for Mexican families in 2026.

In a 2026 where uncertainty persists, Mexico has competitive advantages that it must take advantage of to boost its economic growth, such as its strategic location and the skilled workforce it has.

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Under a tariff environment and a global economic reconfiguration, the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) has improved its growth forecast for the Mexican economy, increasing it from 0.1% to 0.4% for 2025.

After making no changes for three consecutive months, the agency indicated that inflation will remain at 4% at the end of the year , unchanged from its previous estimates.

It’s worth remembering that inflation has been declining for two consecutive months. Last July alone, the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI)  stood at  3.51% annually, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) .

IMEF projections predict that the exchange rate will close the year at 19.70 pesos per dollar, lower than the estimate last July of 20.10 pesos per dollar.

Meanwhile, by 2026, the exchange rate would drop from 20.75 to 20.40 pesos per dollar, the agency’s analysis stated.

Another variable with a positive outlook was the expectation of the traditional public balance as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this year, considering a slight decrease of 3.9% in August; for next year, it stood at 3.5%.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) monetary policy rate estimate  anticipates it will be 7.25 percent in 2025, while the following year it will be 6.75 percent.

The Mexican economy’s growth estimates from the Mexican Ministry of Economy and Finance (IMEF) are in line with other projections, such as those of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) , which predicted a 0.2% increase in national GDP.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) update , the IMF indicated that Mexican GDP would also show positive signs for 2026, with a projected growth of  1.4% , despite the uncertainty arising from tariffs, driven by the United States.

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External factors such as the tariff war and internal factors such as uncertainty over the reform of the judiciary could cause a contraction of Mexico’s economy during the second quarter of 2025, warned the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) .

According to an analysis by that organization, there is a likelihood that Mexican economic growth will fall into negative figures during that period.

Although there is a deferral in the application of tariffs to Mexico compared to other countries, the IMEF pointed out that Mexican products exported have a higher effective rate than those imposed on other nations such as Canada and Brazil.

According to the report, Mexico is also facing deteriorating expectations due to the closure of the U.S. border to Mexican livestock due to the spread of the screwworm, an issue on which “the federal government has not acted effectively.”

“This problem puts more than $1.3 billion in cattle exports to the neighboring country at risk,” he stressed.

Regarding this case, it is worth remembering that the United States government suspended the importation of Mexican cattle for 15 days, to which Julio Berdegué , head of the  Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (Sader) , said that Mexico has carried out all the actions agreed upon with its counterpart from its northern neighbor,  Brooke Rollins , to combat the screwworm plague in the country.

Regarding job creation, the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) estimated 200,000 new jobs by 2025. “However, the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) announced on May 5 that only 43,500 new jobs had been created in the last 12 months, indicating that this sector will experience significant decline in the immediate future,” the agency explained.

The IMEF’s forecasts are in line with those of the World Bank (WB) , which  lowered its economic growth expectations for Mexico from  1.5%  to  0%  for this year due to a complicated external environment driven by various factors such as the escalation of US tariffs on imported products.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also  estimated a 0.3% contraction  in Mexico’s GDP, which could lead to a recession in the country by 2025.

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Security, public policies, infrastructure, transparency, and the demilitarization of ports and airports are part of the actions that must be implemented in the country in the face of the impact that will be felt due to relocation, explained specialists.

During the panel “Connecting with the World: Airport and Port Infrastructure” of the Nearshoring and Political Transition Forum, challenges and opportunities to boost growth, organized by the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF), Juan Carlos Machorro, partner at Santamarina & Steta, commented that nearshoring represents a window of opportunity, although it also poses connectivity challenges.

He mentioned that there are four points that need to be addressed: changing the short-term agenda to a technical and scientific one, demilitarizing ports and the aviation sector which “has been impacted in the last five years, starting with the ‘original sin’ (the cancellation of the Texcoco airport), the pandemic, degradation to Category 2, reduction of operations at the AICM and sending cargo to the AIFA, we don’t get out of one to enter another. A few days ago, ICAO issued an alarm signal for non-compliance with basic air operation safety standards.”

In addition to returning to collaborate with the private sector through public-private partnerships, and transparently bidding for public works.

“There is a very serious opacity issue that has been occurring in infrastructure in recent years. It is not easy, but these four pillars will reverse the policy and will start giving us time to recover what we have not been able to take advantage of under the guise of nearshoring,” he explained.

Yuriria Mascott, legal consultant at Beker & Mckenzie Lawyers, said that for the country to become attractive to investment, it is necessary to have security, appropriate policies, and infrastructure, “with technical rigor above political decisions.”

Furthermore, she emphasized the need for legal certainty to avoid generating mistrust, logistic vision for any work, new technologies, as well as enabling intermodality, multimodality, and synchromodality.

“Today, the issue of rights of way remains a problem, there is a great disparity in the use of airports, while some are very saturated, others are abandoned. In the ports, there is a lack of yards capable of receiving large vessels, equipment is lacking to move the merchandise,” she said.

She explained that until the saturation of the Mexico City International Airport (AICM) is resolved and an airport that solves this situation is built, “it will hardly aspire to be that logistics hub for Latin America.”

Likewise, she highlighted the importance of private investment participation in building the infrastructure, as well as a minimum of 5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in resources for infrastructure.

On the other hand, Celso Morales Muñoz, maritime-port consultant, explained that the rule of law must also be applied, maintenance of current infrastructure must be carried out, and facilities capable of receiving vessels of greater depth must be available.

“The reintegration of the General Coordination of Ports and Merchant Marine to the Ministry of Infrastructure, Communications, and Transportation is fundamental, that is a fundamental point for the port sector to be able to carry out all the actions to reactivate that sector. In nearshoring, what is necessary must be built to promote cabotage and short-distance transportation and supply chain multimodal and intermodalism to be prepared for the demands that will be recorded,” he said.

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