The Transport and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL) returned to negative territory in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), reflecting the uncertainty in this industry. This follows a recovery in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25), when the index had even surpassed 80 points .

Based on the ICTYL report for Q1 2026, the confidence index stood at 75.1 points, the second worst record since the third quarter of 2020, the year in which the COVID-19 pandemic was faced.

The ICTYL is the only confidence indicator in the transport and logistics industry, developed by T21 Business Intelligence  with the aim of monitoring the pace followed in this important economic sector, for which more than 140 managers and entrepreneurs linked to the provision of logistics and transport services, as well as users of these means, are consulted.

According to ICTYL, business confidence optimism fell below zero, registering at -5.70 points . In this category, all values ​​above zero indicate optimism .

When participants were asked how they assessed the pace of business in Q1 2026, 65.4% reported it as “unfavorable .” Meanwhile, for the second quarter of 2026 (Q2 2026), 61.5% of participants have a “favorable” outlook.

Revenue levels are another factor that highlights the industry’s pace. When ICTYL members were asked how revenue levels performed in Q1 2026 compared to Q1 2025, 46.2% of respondents indicated a decrease .

It is worth noting that in response to the same question, 19.2% reported that their billing activity grew between 5% and 10%. Considering all growth responses, it was found that 30.8% of participants increased their billing by 5% to more than 15%, according to ICTYL.

Among the risk factors that could pose a threat to the company’s growth, insecurity did not rank among the top concerns ; in fact, it was the fifth risk identified, with only 9.3% of the responses.

The main risk considered was the “Pace of the national economy”, which captured 19.4% of the responses . “Increased operating costs” contributed 17.6%, “Political uncertainty” 14.8%, and “Weak demand” 13%.

According to the Global Business Confidence Opinion Indicator (IGOEC) of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the confidence of Mexican businessmen fell 0.2 points in April 2026 in relation to last March and also decreased 0.4 units at an annual rate.

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El cargo Confidence in logistics and transport reverses trend: ICTYL apareció primero en T21.

The ICTYL is the first confidence indicator for the logistics and transport sector, developed by T21 Business Intelligence , which has been carried out since the first quarter of 2018 (1Q18) , and includes surveys of approximately 150 entrepreneurs, managers and users of the industry.

The aforementioned context caused the index to fall in the first three quarters of 2025; however, in the fourth quarter (4Q25) it registered a recovery, reaching 83.0 points from the previous 73.7 points.

Business optimism was also assessed and the negative indicator was reversed, reaching 14.77 points in Q4 2025 from -9.40 points in the third quarter of 2025 (Q3 2025) .

When business owners were asked about the performance of their businesses, 52.5% identified Q4 2025 as favorable , while 47.5% considered it negative.

In the estimate for the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), 62.1% of respondents identified this period as positive, and there was also a contraction in the negative outlook, which stood at 37.9 percent.

When ICTYL participants were asked about their revenue performance in Q4 2025, 35% indicated a decrease, while 20% confirmed that it remained the same or did not grow. Among the companies that reported growth, 15% indicated an increase of 5% or less.

When reviewing the 2025 closing versus 2024 in revenue, 50% of the surveyed executives shared that there was no growth in this cycle, while 20% reported having an increase of between 1% and 5%, as identified in the ICTYL.

Among the threats observed to maintaining business growth, participants indicated that the pace of the economy is the main factor, followed by insecurity and political uncertainty , elements that can affect the behavior of companies.

According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) , the Global Indicator of Business Confidence Opinion (IGOEC) registered, in December 2025, a monthly difference of 0.1 points, while in the annual comparison it stood at -3.5 units, to total 48.5 points in the measurement.

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El cargo Confidence in Transport and Logistics is Recovering: ICTYL apareció primero en T21.

At the close of the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), the Transport and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL), developed by T21 Business Intelligence (T21 BI) , identified that this indicator had seen five consecutive quarters of decline ; it should be noted that this exercise has been conducted since the first quarter of 2018 (1Q18).

The ICTYL, which surveys more than 140 transportation and logistics business owners and managers , who are already users of these services, reveals the pace of their businesses during the quarter that just ended, as well as the outlook for the current quarter, and the main factors that may affect their companies.

In Q3 2025, the ICTYL index stood at 73.7 points (Q1 18 = 100), down from 78.6 points in the previous quarter (Q2 2025). The business confidence monitor stood at -9.40 during the period analyzed, returning to negative territory after 22 quarters. In this case, values ​​above “0” signal optimism.

Based on the T21 BI exercise, in 3Q25, 69% of respondents identified the pace as unfavorable for the period . And regarding the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25), the year-end, 61.2% of respondents anticipated it to be favorable.

Regarding revenue, 44.8% of ICTYL participants considered that this component decreased during 3Q25 , while 17.2% stated that it “did not grow or remained stable.”

In contrast, 13.8% responded that their business “grew between 5% and 10%,” while 10.3% “grew between 10% and 15%.”

When reviewing factors that could be considered a threat to the pace of business, 18.26% of ICTYL survey participants considered “political uncertainty” to be the most significant risk, surpassing “public insecurity” at 13.91%.

Regarding the current situation, regarding the impact of the United States government’s tariff policies and the effect on the pace of business, 41% of respondents identified it as high , which, among other factors, has motivated them to rethink routes, change cost structures, investments, or trade relations.

The Manufacturing Industries Business Confidence Index (ICE) , conducted by the National Institute of Geography and Statistics (INEGI) , stood at 49.7 points last September , 0.3 points higher than the previous month. “With this figure, the indicator is below the 50-point threshold for the seventh consecutive month. The monthly performance of the indicator resulted in increases in three of its five components, one remained stable, and the other fell,” the agency’s statement detailed

The “right time to invest” category stood at 37.8 points , 0.5 points higher than in August. The “current economic situation of the country” category reached 49.5 points, a change of just 0.1 points compared to the previous month.

The “current economic situation of the company” fell into negative territory , reaching 51.0 points, a decrease of 0.2 points compared to the previous month.

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El cargo Another setback; confidence in transport and logistics plummets again: ICTYL apareció primero en T21.

Confidence in transportation and logistics at the end of the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25) showed a constant decline and an unfavorable outlook , according to more than 140 executives and businesspeople involved in this industry who were surveyed for the Transportation and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL) , developed by T21 Business Intelligence.

Generated since the first quarter of 2018 (1Q18), the ICTYL is an indicator that shows the confidence of the transport and logistics sector, and which at the end of 2Q25 registered four consecutive quarters of decline, this time standing at 78.6 points (1Q18 = 100) .

Like the index, the confidence indicator is also experiencing one of its worst periods. This indicator, above zero, signals optimism; in Q2 2025, it stood at 3.30 points , the third-worst period in the 30 quarters evaluated.

Another fact that highlights the reality of companies in the transportation and logistics sector is the performance of their business during 2Q25, where 46.7% rated it as unfavorable, and while 53.3% considered it favorable, it is the second lowest level, only behind the second quarter of 2020 (2Q20), during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The same happened with the outlook for the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), where more than 140 participants expressed that they have a 50% expectation for it to be favorable and the same 50% for it to be unfavorable .

ICTYL identified that for the business sector, the pace of the national economy and political uncertainty are the two factors that pose the greatest threat to their businesses.

Regarding the impact of the imposition of tariffs on their businesses, 40% identified the impact as moderate, while only 27% considered it to be significant and have had to modify their operations.

The ICTYL is the only confidence indicator in transportation and logistics that evaluates confidence in the most important business aspects every quarter.

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El cargo ICTYL reveals “dangerous route” for confidence in transport and logistics apareció primero en T21.

The Transport and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL), conducted by T21 Business Intelligence since 2018, highlighted in its first quarter of 2025 (1Q25) exercise the impact of US President Donald Trump’s decisions among the main factors threatening business.

Unlike what had happened in previous quarters, where public insecurity and increased operating costs had been the main threats, in 1Q25 “Political uncertainty” is the factor that most worries business owners and managers, followed by the “Pace of the national economy” , while in third place were “Public insecurity” and “Increased operating costs” .

The ICTYL survey included approximately 140 executives and managers in the transportation and logistics sectors, where the confidence indicator stood at 85.2 points (1Q18=100) in 1Q25, marking the third quarter of decline and the second below 100 points.

When asked about “Business Volume” in Q1 2025, 24% of respondents responded that it grew between 5% and 10%, while 22.4% said it did not grow or remained stable.

Meanwhile, when asked about the pace of business in 1Q25, 59.2% reported a “Favorable” performance , while 40.8% rated it as “Unfavorable.”

Regarding the outlook for 2Q25, 61.2% considered it to be “Favorable,”while 38.8% stated that it will be “Unfavorable.”

Regarding the U.S. government’s tariff implementation policy, 33% of respondents believed it would have a significant impact on their businesses , while the same percentage identified a moderate impact.

The ICTYL results are in line with the Business Confidence Indicator (ICE) of the National Institute of Geography (INEGI) , which in April fell to 49.4 points, a level not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic, when it stood at 43.9 points, marking its third consecutive month of decline.

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El cargo Confidence in transport and logistics affected by political uncertainity: ICTYL apareció primero en T21.

The Transport and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL) recorded a new decline in its survey for the fourth quarter of 2024 (4Q24), reaching 94.8 points, marking a second drop in the record.

In the exercise carried out by T21 Business Intelligence, which considers a survey of approximately 140 managers and executives in the transport and logistics sector, it is observed that in 4Q24, 81.3% of the participants identified the progress of their business during the quarter that ended as positive.

Meanwhile, for this quarter that is underway, 1Q25, 64.6% consider it favorable, while 35.4% anticipate that the course of their business would be unfavorable.

Regarding billing during 4Q24, it was identified that 20.8% of the participants reported that their business grew between 10 and 15% , while 18.8% emphasized that their growth exceeded 15 percent.

As for the current affairs questions, when asked about the Mexico Plan to boost the national economy, 63% of the participants rated it as neutral, while 35% rated it as favorable.

When evaluating the first 100 days of the government headed by Claudia Sheinbaum, 60% expressed a neutral position, 17% favorable and 23% considered it unfavorable.

Regarding the administration of US President Donald Trump, 42% of participants considered it unfavorable, 35% showed a neutral position and only 23% observed it as favorable.

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El cargo Confidence in transport and logistics is “in short supply” apareció primero en T21.

At the close of the second quarter of 2024 (2Q24), the Transport and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL), prepared by T21 Business Intelligence, reached its second best record in history, in an exercise that has been carried out since 1Q18.

Following the elections, with Claudia Sheinbaum’s assumption of the presidency of Mexico and with some political decisions already taken, the ICTYL returned to a moderate level and at the end of 3Q24 stood at 102.1 points , the lowest level of the last four quarters.

In the 3Q24 results, 66.7% of respondents recorded increases above 5% in their billing levels, with the highest volume being in the range of 5% to 10 percent.

One of the most questioned decisions of the current federal administration, as well as of the composition of the Congress of the Union, is the so-called judicial reform , which is perceived unfavorably by the businessmen and managers who responded to the ICTYL survey, as stated by 69% of those surveyed.

In another of the current questions, it stands out that at the end of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration , 56% of those who responded rated him as unfavorable and only 15% as favorable.

The ICTYL is developed by sending a survey directly to 140 managers and businessmen in the transport and logistics sector, who share their perspective on the industry. This exercise took 1Q18 as a reference = 100 points.

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El cargo Trust in transportation and logistics affected by government decisions: ICTYL apareció primero en T21.

After the electoral process that was experienced in Mexico last June and with a cabinet defined for the next administration, the Transportation and Logistics Confidence Index (ICTYL) reached its best level since this measurement was carried out.

In the survey corresponding to the second quarter of 2024 (2Q24), of the more than 140 managers and businessmen who responded this year, 93.9% stated that 2Q24 was favorable and only 6.1% classified it as unfavorable.

Meanwhile, for 3Q24 the outlook for 93.9% of business owners and managers is favorable, while only 6.1% foresee it as unfavorable; percentages that are coincident.

Regarding the ICTYL index carried out by T21 Business Intelligence, for 2Q24 it was located at 111.3 points (1Q18 = 100), this level is the second best level since 1Q18 when this measurement was carried out, only surpassed by 2Q22 when it was located 111.6 points, that is, for the second quarter of this year it was only 0.3 points below.

Once the electoral process was over and with the virtual president-elect, Claudia Sheinbaum, the members of the ICTYL survey showed a neutral perspective regarding the government that she will lead, especially once the members of her legal cabinet were announced.

Regarding the challenges, insecurity remains the main indicator to maintain the growth rate of your business, this hand in hand with the increase in operating costs.

The National Consumer Price Index (INPC) in the first fortnight of July 2024 registered a variation of 0.71% compared to the previous fortnight. General inflation stood at 5.61%, while compared to the previous year, in the same fortnight of 2023 the record was 0.29% and the annual rate was 4.79%, according to data from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi). ) .

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El cargo Confidence in transportation and logistics, at its best level since 2Q22: ICTYL apareció primero en T21.