The Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP) anticipated  a 0.2% monthly increase in consumption for June 2026 and estimated a 2.5% annual growth rate , according to figures from the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

For July, the agency projected that the IOCP would not show changes on a monthly basis, reflecting a stagnation in Mexican household spending; while in its annual measurement it forecasts an increase of 2.2 percent.

For both months, the consumption index would be at 114.2 points , which could signify a trend of stability.

In June 2026, consumption showed signs of recovery in Mexican household spending as the economy also began to pick up.

In the second quarter of 2026 alone, Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.51%, after a contraction of 0.62% in the first quarter of the year, according to Grupo Financiero BASE .

Although consumption, which represents more than 70% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  , is expected to show positive behavior in June 2026, Mexicans continue to show caution when purchasing goods and services.

Given this scenario, some consumers have changed their habits, buying lower-cost products or store brands, even in hard discount stores .

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Although cautiously, Mexicans are beginning to regain confidence when purchasing goods and services, according to the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP), which anticipated a monthly growth of 0.4% for May 2026 and also estimated an annual increase of 2.8 percent .

Meanwhile, for June , the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) predicted an increase in the IOCP at both the monthly and annual rates of 0.1% and 2.6%, respectively.

The IOCP indicates that the Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP) is projected to reach 114.2 points in May and 114.3 in June of this year. These estimates include 95% confidence intervals, based on seasonally adjusted figures.

For both months, this weighting could signify a trend of stability , although without clear signs of expansion.

The IOCP aims to provide timely and accurate estimates of private consumption, which is one of the country’s economic drivers, Inegi emphasized.

The Inegi estimates come in a context where the general annual inflation has been decreasing, standing at 3.94% last May and 3.37% in June of this year , which has generated a decrease in the prices of some products, allowing consumers greater purchasing power.

Private consumption is one of the main components of domestic demand, as it represents about  70% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) , so its evolution is key to economic growth.

According to the consulting firm Kantar , consumers have changed their habits by purchasing lower-cost or private-label products, and have even reduced spending in response to factors such as inflation and slower economic growth.

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The increase in the acquisition of foreign products resulted in a 0.8% rise in private consumption in Mexico during October 2025 compared to last September, according to data from the Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP) , prepared by the  National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) .

This increase represented the  fourth best monthly advance of the IMCP in 2025, reflecting the positive evolution of household spending  on goods and services , despite the country’s economic uncertainty.

In the tenth month of last year, the indicator stood at  113.5 points . In its annual measurement, private consumption increased by 4.1% in the reference period.

According to seasonally adjusted figures and monthly rates,  consumption of  domestically produced goods and services  showed no change during the economic cycle . Goods fell by 0.2%, while services increased by 0.4%. As for imported goods, consumption rose by 6.6%  in October 2025 compared to the previous month.

On an annual basis, spending on domestic goods and services grew 1.2% and spending on imported goods increased 20.6%.

According to INEGI, “the Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption measures household spending on consumer goods and services , both domestic and imported. This allows for monthly monitoring of the most significant component of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) , on the demand side.”

Measuring private consumption is important because it represents the spending by Mexican families on the purchase of goods and services, making it a key indicator of the economy .

According to an analysis by BBVA Research , a moderate start to 2026 is expected for private spending, although a gradual recovery in consumption could be observed during the year, as the real wage bill strengthens and the uncertainty derived from US trade policies decreases.

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